4xForecaster

Potential Bullish Shark Completion; Sees 5-0 @ 1289.86 | $XAU

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
546 17 2
Friends,

A potential Bullish Shark completion occurred at the current price level (circa 1240.40), with a possible 50% retracement to complete a 5-0.

I have left out the Shark's Zero-X-A-B-C reference points, pointing to 50% of last swing low to define the 5-0 pattern possible completion circa 1289.86 level.

Also left in the chart is the XAB triangle at the root of both patterns.

I have removed the recent Wolfe Waves ("WW") outline for simplicity reason, especially as this pattern because too tortuous to define. However, WW pattern traders will find it without too much difficulty, realizing that it completed a 5' ("five prime") validation right at the Shark's Point-C level as well.


OVERALL:

Above patterns favor reversal to the upside. While Gold's luster has been tarnished by persistent bearish pressure over time, the current technical-based rally may represent a respite rather than a reversal - Sort of a "Relief rally" of limited upside for the time being.

Here is a forecast posted a few months back ... Still valid per predictive/forecasting model

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA

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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
Sokun
2 years ago
Your work is beautiful! Will silver follow the same path?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
2 years ago
Thank you @Vorfi - Keeping it as clean and informative as possible. Appreciate your compliments.

Silver and Gold have an elastic correlation with a mean value that might be best defined and explained by a metal trader. A friend of mine taught me that the two have a historical correlation coefficient that would guide metal traders' directional bias.

I will try to find out what that coefficient is.

Thank you,

David
Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
2 years ago
 Between 1969 and 1980, the correlation coefficient between the prices of gold and silver was 0.9267. Between 2001 (when silver was at its lowest) and today (2013), the correlation coefficient was 0.8106. Which means that almost 2/3 of the silver price moves in this secular bear market and 7/8 of its moves in both bull markets since 1971 are due to the changes in gold’s price.

+1 Reply
Sokun
2 years ago
Can u point me in a direction in to understanding your ways?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
2 years ago
Lots of reading time, lots of observation time, and lots of pondering time. I have paid lessons, membership, private lessons, and combined with long academic career in visual arts, architecture and medicine. A lot of what I discovered was over unrelated matters or activities.

Best work is that of Connie Brown, CMT, as it encompasses a lot of the disciplines I use (geometry, numerology and creative analysis, looking deep into geometric correlations). There really is no well defined category of books giving a step-by-step approach to it.

It's sort of a random walk of the human mind down the not-so-random-walk of market prices - I am glad I have the time to devote to a lot of these abstractions.

All I can say is that the conventional teaching has become so institutionalized that algos are written with common patterns, standard Fibonacci values, and foreseeable behaviors in mind. In a way, brokerage firms that teach newbies how to trade using the "conventional ways" are in fact politely asking the new traders to pass their heads through the noose and pull on the lever.

Just my humble opinion, of course.

David
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Sokun 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Gassho
Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
2 years ago
Gassho?
Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Gassho means to put the hands together. It signifies the oneness of Buddha and all beings.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
2 years ago
Nice.
Reply
360 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Well said D. Specially the last part on conventional teaching. I always suspected something like that, but did not know how to put it. Thank you.
+1 Reply
David I really like the way you analysis the market thanks for helping me to learn
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4xForecaster PRO manijeh.kazemi.33
2 years ago
@manijeh.kazemi.33 - Glad I am able to help out. I wish I had the help when I started out back in 1997, with the ease of access and freeware that is available nowadays - David Alcindor
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fximperija
2 years ago
David, by looking at the $DUST it's quiet possible for Gold to turn. $DUST closed the gap but no sings of dropping further yet! Could also break 22 which would press Gold lower into the bullish gartley on daily. BTW - regarding 5-0 BC->D should not exceed 2.24?
snapshot
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4xForecaster PRO fximperija
2 years ago
@fximperija - Yes, $DUST posted an early BULLISH market reversal sign, pending signal confirmation. I will build a chart to represent this with a brief technical synopsis and probability targets - David
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fximperija 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Looking forward, mate :)
+1 Reply
12 SEP 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$XAUUSD refined target @ 1226.67 per model; adjusted 5-0 @ 1285.79:

snapshot


via @tradingview | $XAU $USD $Gold $DUST $SLV
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snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
12 SEP 2014 - Update:

Shark got hit on its 1.131 reciprocal to complete its Point-C.

However, model calls for a slightly lower target, as refined today @1226.67, which remains unanswered for now - see chart below:


snapshot



David
Reply
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