4xForecaster

$XAU Hit Target @ 1216.67; Limited Rally Into 5-0 Patt. | $Gold

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
1732 84 18
Friends,


A quick tech-note here on $XAUUSD:

1 - Hit 1226.67 target and reversed - Although I'd expect consolidation to be the next time-consuming event, a 5-0 pattern is lurking above, demanding completion at its defining 50% level from recent down-swing, or at 1284.99 - High probability target.

2 - Prop Pattern may receive validation as well, pending target reach at TG-1 = 1301 (moderate probability)

3 - Low probability target rests at 1321.71


OVERALL:

The initial analysis called for a reversal at a higher level based on a Shark . This secondary target allowed that same Shark to extend its BC             leg to complete on a predictive/forecasting model that defined a slightly lower potential reversal mark than would be defined by target alone.

Expected rally is now driven by target completion of Shark's acolyte: The 5-0 Pattern, although loftier targets remain from a prior analysis that say a Wolfe Wave as the main driver of a deeper reversal. While 5-0 may gain validation, these higher targets remain valid as defined by predictive/forecasting model.

However, in the context of a trend preservation, these loftier targets should also be considered as strong bearish entrenchments, likely to cap any further advance. Indeed, predictive/forecasting model remains strongly bearish across short and medium terms.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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in your previous gold post, u stated 1240. now u saying target hit? i dont see 1226 as your target before
+2 Reply
Please, be sure to stay tuned to the frequent analyses.

Here are the two sources of the target signal, released on 12 SEP 2014:

1 - Twitter: Link of to Tweet:
- https://twitter.com/4xForecaster/status/510349433817399296

2 - TradingView sit - Third chart down in this link:
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Potential Bullish Shark Completion; Sees 5-0 @ 1289.86 | $XAU


Following is the last picture ever posted before price hit price. Notice how the entire analysis was initially based on the Shark's 1.131, and how instead, the predictive/forecasting model was not only able to call a few points lower, but got it dead-on:

snapshot


Is this answering your query?

David Alcindor
Reply
You're very hopeful.
To the highest level in 1257. And above it is not possible
+2 Reply
@ZarNegar - Very much appreciate your input.

I have learned to let things that do better and know better than me to make the call for me - So, I post what comes out of the predictive/forecasting model with no fear, hope or greed. Simple trust in an algo that has been more right than wrong, proved me more wrong than I could ever be right.

Just sticking to a system that has years of documented Dead-On Hits (some older archives for our leisurely review for calls made for which I was called more worse than hopeful: https://bitly.com/bundles/dalcindo/j)


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
ZarNegar 4xForecaster
Thanks to David Alcindor
I visited the site and was very useful Bitly.
I hope to contact you in the future. And I take advantage of your experiences.
Thanks again
+1 Reply
Hppe you are fine david my idea short if prices break 1225
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO manijeh.kazemi.33
Yes, this is always a possibility. I am after probability. Probability favors reactive rally.

$XAUUSD has a pattern of behavior that lends itself to predictability. When two or more patterns can be plotted with consistency based on the predictable behavior, then their numerical relations becomes a pedigree, a gait or better yet, a fingerprint.

In this way of seeing things, markets have a gait (speed and stride) and footprint that become the patterns of behavior, lending themselves to predictability. Forecasting is simply the ability to project one behavior across a distance. Here, it's time.

David
+4 Reply
Note demand assistance to poor physical buying in china
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO manijeh.kazemi.33
China will be the bellwether for gold's direction. IF and once it stops buying as it looks to value from other sources, it will signal a historical point in gold. It would need to find higher value or utility from other sources than Gold in order to drop the metal - David
+2 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
Bounce?
+1 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
Where 2 now?
+1 Reply
18 SEP 2014 - Update:

Price has done two things to put in doubt the possibility of an immediate retracement:

1 - Price has carved a new low @ 1215.62, further beneath the Model's bearish target @ 1226.67

and

2 - Price is weaving a potential continuation pattern through an Elliott Waves' Running Flat.


snapshot



While the new low is obvious, the coiling geometry remains in doubt. However, net development is calling for added downside.

A "Worst-Case Scenario" from the model, which looks for the outer most parameters with the least probability, is called for. Such "WCS" is defining the following targets:

- TG-x = 1199.27 - 18 SEP 2014

If this target fails, this would indicate that a higher-time frame has gained controlled over this H4 level, and that a predictive/forecasting analysis would require to step out of this H4 level and look at the institutional DAILY timeframe, as the probable culprit level of interference against lower-level frames.

Let's see what price does at this point - Again: Current geometry favors downside. Also, a EWP wave count is missing a crucial anatomical 4th Wave leg and a conclusive 5th Wave foot, which are sine qua non conditions that remain nonexistent in current price action.

David Alcindor
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Sokun 4xForecaster
Far out. Then up?
+1 Reply
Hi, @Sokun ! Okay. Do you have a rationale, or just guessing?
Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
Wondering what the probability of the higher time frame taking control
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Sokun Sokun
What is silver looking like to you? Must be close to a bottom unless some higher time frame takes over?
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@Sokun - Sorry, I thought that you were responding to the challenge in another chart, where I was asking folks to guess the direction and range for next week with a chart submission - Sorry, my bad - David
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KevinT 4xForecaster
No fancy waves: Check
No propierty calculus: check

I just started drawing. When I was finished, my reaction was: Are you seriouse????
Are you seriouse???
+1 Reply
@KevinT - Looks like a AB = CD symmetrical projection - nice. David
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4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
Also a nodal core projection - Same thing, geometrically speaking - David
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Sokun 4xForecaster
Most fascinating
+1 Reply
Sokun Sokun
Will we get a bounce to 1280 befor ascending?
+1 Reply
Sokun KevinT
Can u show me how u did that?
+1 Reply
@Sokun - Here is a AB = CD in pink, with the overlay of the ABCD tool:

snapshot


David
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Sokun 4xForecaster
Cool. Cant beable to look at both charts and understand how to get there yet....lol
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Sokun KevinT
Can u explain how u received this result? Are u able to chart silver?
Most warmest regards
+1 Reply
@Sokun - Not sure I understand your question: "Can u explain how u received this result?"
- What result are you referring to?

David
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@Sokun - If you look under any trader's profile, you can also screen for the charts that they have covered in the past.

Under my own profile, you would easily see that I have covered $XAU and $XAG extensively. I even provided a Relative Strength chart pitting $XAU vs. $XAG - Here they are:

1 - 4 Months Ago:
"$XAU vs $XAG Remains Bullish | #Gold #Silver $GLD #SILV"
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$XAU vs $XAG Remains Bullish | #Gold #Silver $GLD #SILV


2 - 28 Days Ago;
"Will $XAG Shine On The Back Of A Rusting $XAU? | $GLD $SLV"
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Will $XAG Shine On The Back Of A Rusting $XAU? | $GLD $SLV


3 - 17 Days Ago;
"Nearing Significant Repulsion At 19.048 | $XAG $XAU $SLV $Gold"
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Nearing Significant Repulsion At 19.048 | $XAG $XAU $SLV $Gold


David
+2 Reply
Hello @KevinT - Reviewing all comments just now. Yes, indeed, looks like price is coming down softly towards lower levels - David
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gold falls to 1200 or 1194 due to strong beat 1209
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23 SEP 2014 - Note:

Daily notes, technical commentaries, lessons and pearls will be provided in the "Predictive Analysis & Forecasting" chat room. Feel free to follow these added details there (Link: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#5eHLst6YxeVqGlaO). Only significant technical events will be posted in this present discussion thread, so as to avoid too much unnecessary technical information for the trader and chartist interested only in major technical events.

David Alcindor
+1 Reply