4xForecaster

$XAU Hit Target @ 1216.67; Limited Rally Into 5-0 Patt. | $Gold

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
1732 84 18
Friends,


A quick tech-note here on $XAUUSD:

1 - Hit 1226.67 target and reversed - Although I'd expect consolidation to be the next time-consuming event, a 5-0 pattern is lurking above, demanding completion at its defining 50% level from recent down-swing, or at 1284.99 - High probability target.

2 - Prop Pattern may receive validation as well, pending target reach at TG-1 = 1301 (moderate probability)

3 - Low probability target rests at 1321.71


OVERALL:

The initial analysis called for a reversal at a higher level based on a Shark . This secondary target allowed that same Shark to extend its BC             leg to complete on a predictive/forecasting model that defined a slightly lower potential reversal mark than would be defined by target alone.

Expected rally is now driven by target completion of Shark's acolyte: The 5-0 Pattern, although loftier targets remain from a prior analysis that say a Wolfe Wave as the main driver of a deeper reversal. While 5-0 may gain validation, these higher targets remain valid as defined by predictive/forecasting model.

However, in the context of a trend preservation, these loftier targets should also be considered as strong bearish entrenchments, likely to cap any further advance. Indeed, predictive/forecasting model remains strongly bearish across short and medium terms.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
in your previous gold post, u stated 1240. now u saying target hit? i dont see 1226 as your target before
+2 Reply
Please, be sure to stay tuned to the frequent analyses.

Here are the two sources of the target signal, released on 12 SEP 2014:

1 - Twitter: Link of to Tweet:
- https://twitter.com/4xForecaster/status/510349433817399296

2 - TradingView sit - Third chart down in this link:
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Potential Bullish Shark Completion; Sees 5-0 @ 1289.86 | $XAU


Following is the last picture ever posted before price hit price. Notice how the entire analysis was initially based on the Shark's 1.131, and how instead, the predictive/forecasting model was not only able to call a few points lower, but got it dead-on:

snapshot


Is this answering your query?

David Alcindor
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You're very hopeful.
To the highest level in 1257. And above it is not possible
+2 Reply
@ZarNegar - Very much appreciate your input.

I have learned to let things that do better and know better than me to make the call for me - So, I post what comes out of the predictive/forecasting model with no fear, hope or greed. Simple trust in an algo that has been more right than wrong, proved me more wrong than I could ever be right.

Just sticking to a system that has years of documented Dead-On Hits (some older archives for our leisurely review for calls made for which I was called more worse than hopeful: https://bitly.com/bundles/dalcindo/j)


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
ZarNegar 4xForecaster
Thanks to David Alcindor
I visited the site and was very useful Bitly.
I hope to contact you in the future. And I take advantage of your experiences.
Thanks again
+1 Reply
Hppe you are fine david my idea short if prices break 1225
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO manijeh.kazemi.33
Yes, this is always a possibility. I am after probability. Probability favors reactive rally.

$XAUUSD has a pattern of behavior that lends itself to predictability. When two or more patterns can be plotted with consistency based on the predictable behavior, then their numerical relations becomes a pedigree, a gait or better yet, a fingerprint.

In this way of seeing things, markets have a gait (speed and stride) and footprint that become the patterns of behavior, lending themselves to predictability. Forecasting is simply the ability to project one behavior across a distance. Here, it's time.

David
+4 Reply
Note demand assistance to poor physical buying in china
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO manijeh.kazemi.33
China will be the bellwether for gold's direction. IF and once it stops buying as it looks to value from other sources, it will signal a historical point in gold. It would need to find higher value or utility from other sources than Gold in order to drop the metal - David
+2 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
Bounce?
+1 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
Where 2 now?
+1 Reply
18 SEP 2014 - Update:

Price has done two things to put in doubt the possibility of an immediate retracement:

1 - Price has carved a new low @ 1215.62, further beneath the Model's bearish target @ 1226.67

and

2 - Price is weaving a potential continuation pattern through an Elliott Waves' Running Flat.


snapshot



While the new low is obvious, the coiling geometry remains in doubt. However, net development is calling for added downside.

A "Worst-Case Scenario" from the model, which looks for the outer most parameters with the least probability, is called for. Such "WCS" is defining the following targets:

- TG-x = 1199.27 - 18 SEP 2014

If this target fails, this would indicate that a higher-time frame has gained controlled over this H4 level, and that a predictive/forecasting analysis would require to step out of this H4 level and look at the institutional DAILY timeframe, as the probable culprit level of interference against lower-level frames.

Let's see what price does at this point - Again: Current geometry favors downside. Also, a EWP wave count is missing a crucial anatomical 4th Wave leg and a conclusive 5th Wave foot, which are sine qua non conditions that remain nonexistent in current price action.

David Alcindor
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Sokun 4xForecaster
Far out. Then up?
+1 Reply
Hi, @Sokun ! Okay. Do you have a rationale, or just guessing?
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Sokun 4xForecaster
Wondering what the probability of the higher time frame taking control
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Sokun Sokun
What is silver looking like to you? Must be close to a bottom unless some higher time frame takes over?
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@Sokun - Sorry, I thought that you were responding to the challenge in another chart, where I was asking folks to guess the direction and range for next week with a chart submission - Sorry, my bad - David
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KevinT 4xForecaster
No fancy waves: Check
No propierty calculus: check

I just started drawing. When I was finished, my reaction was: Are you seriouse????
Are you seriouse???
+1 Reply
@KevinT - Looks like a AB = CD symmetrical projection - nice. David
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4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
Also a nodal core projection - Same thing, geometrically speaking - David
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Sokun 4xForecaster
Most fascinating
+1 Reply
Sokun Sokun
Will we get a bounce to 1280 befor ascending?
+1 Reply
Sokun KevinT
Can u show me how u did that?
+1 Reply
@Sokun - Here is a AB = CD in pink, with the overlay of the ABCD tool:

snapshot


David
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Sokun 4xForecaster
Cool. Cant beable to look at both charts and understand how to get there yet....lol
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Sokun KevinT
Can u explain how u received this result? Are u able to chart silver?
Most warmest regards
+1 Reply
@Sokun - Not sure I understand your question: "Can u explain how u received this result?"
- What result are you referring to?

David
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@Sokun - If you look under any trader's profile, you can also screen for the charts that they have covered in the past.

Under my own profile, you would easily see that I have covered $XAU and $XAG extensively. I even provided a Relative Strength chart pitting $XAU vs. $XAG - Here they are:

1 - 4 Months Ago:
"$XAU vs $XAG Remains Bullish | #Gold #Silver $GLD #SILV"
-
$XAU vs $XAG Remains Bullish | #Gold #Silver $GLD #SILV


2 - 28 Days Ago;
"Will $XAG Shine On The Back Of A Rusting $XAU? | $GLD $SLV"
-
Will $XAG Shine On The Back Of A Rusting $XAU? | $GLD $SLV


3 - 17 Days Ago;
"Nearing Significant Repulsion At 19.048 | $XAG $XAU $SLV $Gold"
-
Nearing Significant Repulsion At 19.048 | $XAG $XAU $SLV $Gold


David
+2 Reply
Hello @KevinT - Reviewing all comments just now. Yes, indeed, looks like price is coming down softly towards lower levels - David
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gold falls to 1200 or 1194 due to strong beat 1209
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