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$GBPCAD Eyes Bearish Targets | $GBP $CAD #forex

FX:GBPCAD   British Pound/Canadian Dollar
Friends,


While the predictive/forecasting model is posting an early bearish market reversal signal, there are also fundamental and technical reasons to consider a potential bearish downturn in this $GBPCAD             pair


FUNDAMENTALS:

Central bank decision regarding UK is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged. This implies that $GBP won't gain rally without this fundamental boost. In contrast, $CAD's economic numbers have shown improvement in the area of employment, despite free-falling prices in Oil             and Gold             , which are two important variables in its export-dependent economic equation.

See recent posting on Oil             and Gold             where predictive analysis is considering an interim relief in these commodities bearish pricing - See "Link To related ideas" below.


TECHNICALS:

- GEOMETRY: EXPANDING TRIANGLE

This $GBPCAD             pair is currently resolving an expanding triangle. However, looking into the internal wave count (a-b-c), the recent price action seems to lack a significant anatomical wave-c part.

For this reason, I have highlighted 1.81886 as a top-most structural level I would consider attainable for the fianl wave-c to occur - Although this is not a requirement, I would remain open to this potential necessity in terms of pure geometric             form and development.

I also defined a lower value at 1.78916 as a threshold from which further bearish contemplation becomes feasible. More conservative traders might also consider the lower structural level defined by Point-D of the Expanding Triangle as well.

Notice that Point-E remains ghosted for the time being, on the expectation that further upside is possible. From an Elliott Wave Principle, and as mentioned above, an internal 3-wave             count via a-b-c- points remains unclear as far as this Point-E. Also, looking at the general form of prior such internal counts in terms of amplitude and spread, I am not certain that Point-E is defined just yet.


PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:

From a predictive/forecasting analytical standpoint, There are several levels to consider, namely:

1 - 1.84168, defined above current position as a significant overhead resistance. If indeed Point-E were to resolve at a higher level, I would expect that such level would occur up to, but not higher than this 1.84168 value.

2 - 1.84262-to-1.85396 range, defined as a significant bearish entrenchment. Regardless of above Elliott Wave Point-E definition and geometry, this level is a stand-alone bearish bastion, offering the strongest bearish repulsive forces possible. This also marks a level where if price did indeed break across and close across it, then further bearish delusions should be replaced by a neutral to bullish reality mindset.

3 - Numerical targets (offering potential retracement levels in the 0.382-to-0.618 Fibonacci range) have also been defined by predictive/forecasting model as;

a -- TG-1 - 1.75891 - 11 NOV 2014

and

b -- TG-2 - 1.73226 - 11 NOV 2014

whereas a nominal target (offering reversal potentials) has been defined as:

-- TG-Lo - 1.70855 - 11 NOV 2014.


OVERALL:

A set of fundamental and technical, as well as proprietary signals, is weighing down on the $GBPCAD             pair. Given trigger levels, and the unfolding of economic/fundamental data affecting these respective major currencies, a precautionary watch-and-wait stance is advised at this point, although the net directional bias favors the ursine breed so far - Despite these hesitant reasons, I am posting TradingView's directional indicator as "Short".

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Predictive/Forecasting Analysis
Denver, Colorado - USA


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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
19 DEC 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$GBPCAD eyes support at 1.79683 and 1.78669, barring 1.82291 adverse excursion:

snapshot


@tradingview $GBP $CAD #forex $USD
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
Targets TG-1 and TG-2 are derived from Scott Carney's 5-0 Pattern, following a Bearish Shark completion - TG-1 is a 50% and TG-2 at 61.8% retracement levels from recent bullish swing.

The targets are NOT issued from the predictive/forecasting model. For this reason, they carry less probability value than the model's own targets.

In the larger scheme of things, the more bearish targets, which are defined by the model, remain intact and in force.


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
HamedAghajani PRO 4xForecaster
Hi David, Do you consider the TG-2 defined in the original analysis, still a valid target? I am 420 pips in profit now (Thanks to you), and was thinking to only exit half of the position at ~TG-1 - 1.759X and leave the rest for TG-2. Thanks, Hamed.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO HamedAghajani
Hello @HamedAghajani - I appreciate the compliments and very much am glad that you are staying pips ahead using my analyses and forecasts. However, I cannot offer any trade management advice, only technical descriptions and personal opinions on charting.

The TG-1 and TG-2 targets are numerical levels serving to define future R/S levels. They stand as probable levels of retracement in the order of 0.382 to 0.618 if even that (i.e.; consider as little as 0.114 , 0.214 up to 0.382 in aggressive trends).

Using the DAILY chart (original analysis), I would look at the possibility of strengthening in CAD against the USD, as well as weakening of GBP against USD. The net effect would continue to bear on the GBPCAD pair.

For this to occur, a significant central bank-driven force would have to be applied on the pair, typically front rate decisions, while interim fundamental should also be considered as preparation for such favorable rate occurrence.

At the moment, CAD runs at 1.0% since 08-2010, whereas GBP runs at 0.50% since 05-2009.

Further rate decline could occur from BOE based on the current commodity-wide depreciation issues. Same could be said of BOC, but oil has possibly reached a nadir, so a rise in crude would carry the CAD and bear down on the pair.

All this is simply stating the news, but worth keeping in sight, as CAD is the likely hammering force in the pair, basing its economy on pricing of GOLD, OIL and the US market. Right now, GOLD looks quite bearish. per following chart, it did not bother to validate WW's 1-4 Line after gesturing a brief compliance to the forecast ... Then, it rose significantly to the present point where it is now staring at the overhead resistance range.

snapshot


A beak of that range, and the CAD will carry its own weight.


Another geo-political issue that might affect the CAD is the presidential election in the US. If republicans take over the WH, then expect a probable signing of the pipeline connecting US and CAD. Combined with a bounce and level of crude to above the $50.00 level, this would likely benefit both the US (cheaper production cost and higher oil price export, both at a defined balanced) and Canada, whose economy depends on the welfare of the US economy and price in oil.

For this reason, a push towards the DAILY chart's TG-Lo remains a possibility, but one that would require tolerance of time and wide swings.


Cheers,


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
HamedAghajani PRO 4xForecaster
Appreciate your in-depth explanation. Regards, Hamed
Reply
19 DEC 2014 - Quick Note:

Price hit first target, then reacted back up to the pattern's upper border. As this 1-3-5 point definition completed, further downside towards subsequent bearish targets remain highly probable.

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
01 DEC 2014 - Update:


* * * Prop Pattern target = 1.51797 (Great White) * * *


Remains BEARISH; targets intact.


* * * Prop Pattern target = 1.51797 (Great White) * * *



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
HamedAghajani PRO 4xForecaster
Thanks David, for constructive updates on your trade ideas. The new targets seem really extreme, and keeps me motivated to remain short. God bless, Hamed.
Reply
HamedAghajani PRO HamedAghajani
.... keeps me encouraged ...
Reply
27 NOV 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$GBPCAD: Watch for $CAD strengthening here; Bearish targets remain in force:

snapshot


@tradingview | $GBP $CAD $USD #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
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