chartwatchers
Long

GOLD - Inverted hammer & Momentum killers

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
9509 86 140
No question we are in a triangle...
When a trader - without knowing the cycles - looks at this gold             chart it's looking like a perfect short:
We have a "double top" which will break down soon.
MACD crossed down.
We had a reversal candle on Friday. A few traders think it's a key reversal - but it's not.
In the last 3 days of the week every pop at the upper line of the triangle was killed. actually we tried to break out rfom the triangle 7 times in the lat 9 days. And we end up the week at the bottom of the triangle.
So at the weekend the bears are celebrating counting their money what will arrive to their account when the triangle breaks down.

If the triangle breaks down then we will have a daily cycle top at day 8 in a bull market. I would say that's almost impossible. What looks much more possible to me is that this daily cycle hasn't topped yet.
It will top next week on day 20-21 as we are breaking out to the upside from this triangle as the dollar starts to fall.

The candlestick what we printed on friday is an inverted hammer .
Inverted Hammers represent a potential trend reversal at support levels. After a decline, the long upper shadow indicates buying pressure during the session. However, the bulls were not able to sustain this buying pressure and prices closed well off of their highs to create the long upper shadow. Because of this failure, bullish confirmation is required before action. So this inverted hammer should be followed by a long green candlestick with heavy volume could act as bullish confirmation.

So all I'm waiting for now is a reversal from the lower trendline of the triangle.
Do not forget that the selloff happened after the European and Asian session in a summer Friday afternoon.
If you start to short this you must be Charles Bronson with death wish.

I still think that smartmoney shows the bears what they want to see. This is the last breath of gold's bear market at the weekly trendline from all time tops. We are just trying to break this level and sooner or later we will .
The falling dollar could help gold             in the breakout.

Summary:
I think we are breaking up from the triangle next week and printing the daily cycle top at 1390-1400$.




Comment:
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Comment: Bear market trendline on the weekly chart :
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Comment: So gold was capped on Friday by BIS. And who will get the bag full with shorts?
Retail traders.
http://kingworldnews.com/alert-bis-intervened-in-the-gold-market-to-assist-battered-gold-shorts/
Comment: FED = FOMC
FEDM = FED Minutes
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Comment: Back in the triangle.
The prove of the manipulation of the gap at the opening.
Almost every gap open gets filled immediately in gold in the next hour.
This one was was not filled though. Most probably we will be in the triangle till FED Minutes.
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Comment: The evidence of the manipulation is the gap at the opening....
Comment: It seems I was right again.
Gold just doesn't want to break down from the triangle yet.
Inverted hammer is working nicely with the follow through today.
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Comment: Many asked where to TP.
I'll be watching the price action today and tomorrow.
I will take some profit on the position tomorrow before the FED Minutes though I think we are going to break out and tag 1390-1400 this week.
Comment: Will keep you updated whole week below this post.
Comment: Don't forget the hourly picture.
Let's see what the american momentum killers will do with gold on a day when the dollar is collapsing. Will they risk their money to save the trapped shorts or they will be protecting their money and not attacking ....
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Comment: As we reached the critical zone I'M taking some profit here. 30-40% of the position.
Just to make sure it will run to 1390-1400.
When I take profit it always breaks out and run.
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Comment: Everybody should be in profit right now who bought at the buying the dip post or at the momentum killers post. Just put some money into the pocket. But have some position for the breakout.
You never know when the spaceship starts
Comment: Surprise to the upside.
Enjoy the movie:
" The bull awakens"
Comment: Momentum killers are active again as the US session is getting started.
Comment: If stocks are collapsing today and tomorrow with the falling dollar gold will rally.
Arpi, where would you place a stoploss? I know that it may depend of individual Money Management, but what levels would make you belive that price may fall even lower
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1309
+4 Reply
RajeshShahi chartwatchers
is it good to put a buy in 1340?
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I feel sorry for you Mr.Bull. A big bull slaughter coming. !!
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Even from one comment I know:
You are one of the perma bears waiting for gold break below 1000$.
Man, the sooner you realize we are in a bull market the less money you are going to lose.
You are never going to see 1200$ again.
+4 Reply
shobikhan PRO chartwatchers
Arpi wait ...he's right. This going from covert bearish movement to overt bearish movement. You saw this coming a few charts ago a bearish movement that will make the bulls question the validity of the bull movement. But then the market went up and now your making another mistake, the movement you saw before is now here. Your analysis is good but your timing mechanism for gold is off, your always playing the movement before. I tried to warn you before in an earlier post, I try not to interfere with other traders I neither lead or follow. But I don't like how you lead your people into certain traps than abandon them when they need you the most when things go wrong. I've seen TntSunrise another "guru" here make mistake, admit them, get his people out and move on to the next trade. Do not be lead by your Ego ...we will know in a day or two if you are wrong on this one. Admit it, get your people out and move on. Do not leave them hanging.... To help your people I will tell them this market will seek 1308 then again 1280, this market is currently in the process of eliminating the weak bulls..... ****Please do not follow me... I do not post charts ... I am just a watcher learn to trade for yourselves. *******
+3 Reply
Great comment.. !!! 100% agree.. Gold is very difficult.. I see too many people being too sure of their opinion.. And everybody waiting for the move towards $1,400... Last week nasty price action. A big move is coming in the metals very soon.. See the bollinger band squeeze XAUEUR.. Here is my humble take...
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+3 Reply
vaccaroFx MidasTouchConsulting
volume doesn't validate that pattern
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Nightstar shobikhan
What a dumb thing to say to someone who's actually done a very good job of leading people in the right direction. Is he always gonna knock it out of the park?! Of course not.. No one can you imbecile! But Arpi's solid understanding of Cycle Analysis and Sentiment has helped many on tradingview make some good coin time and time again and without offering anything in return other than some useless comment, much like this one :)
+5 Reply
Great words,,,,,!!!
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Nightstar investment6300
Gotta fight the good fight :)
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http://us2.campaign-archive2.com/?u=782363159fbc9257a5256cdde&id=6dca6e711d&e=
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We don't need your solidarity as we are in the good direction again.
So take your "feel sorry" to the bear posts.
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
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waterman chartwatchers
Still I am on sideline. I was giving you a warning shot. But bears retreated by your fierce attack. Congrats dude.
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Do you think that the COT numbers will reverse to the long side any time soon? Seems the commercials have been say short since Spring...
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Commercials are always holding a large short position as they are hedging production.
They are covering the shorts in 2 cases:
- in overbought markets when price is falling and regresses to the mean
- when gold is coming out of the bear market lows. This happened in 2009. Commercials were covering the shorts as we were breaking
above 1000. This is going to happen soon. I have a lot of graphs on my webpage regarding commercial and large speculator positions
which are predicting direction.
But this time the horrible commercial short position is not an excuse for a short. This gold bull can be shorted in the ICL declines.
We just printed the ICL few weeks ago.
+2 Reply
profprof chartwatchers
Any other source besides that sketchy kingsworldnews for the BIS intervention on gold shorts?
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Some info on settlement in gold manipulation confirmed in group of /news/2016-04-14/first-silver-now-gold-deutsche-bank-admits-it-also-rigged-gold-prices-legal-settleme#
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Some supporting info of minupulation of /gold-manipulation-its-much-bigger-than-you-think/#
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TomUnderwood chartwatchers
This is really valuable information.

It would be good if you can keep providing information on COT reports in the future.
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investment6300 chartwatchers
Here is an article about the increased Gold price minupulation to protct the dollar, http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/gold-manipulation-its-much-bigger-than-you-think/
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Arpi, you dont want to wait at 1310?
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Im already in position from around 1315-1320.
I dont want to close and wait for 1310 because I doubt it's going to happen...
+3 Reply
Your idea is the every reason I hold the long position, really appreciate that, Sir
+1 Reply
Hi Apri, when do you think gold will print daily cycle top?
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Most probably next week. Or at the beginning of the week after that (22-23.Aug)
+2 Reply
xukaitan888 chartwatchers
Thank you!
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I like what you say and i see this triangle is similar to the triangle that formed from 11th march and broke out upside 28th April. Again with this triangle in a ABC pattern on the bull market this should breakout on the upside. But..... I still think there will be a pull back after this so we can get enough momentum to take us to 1400. We still have a bit to go yet to hit the 6 monthly high in September so we are in no rush. We all know its going up one way or another.
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Agreed. The intermediate cycle should top in September or early October.
+1 Reply
Thanks Arpi,
The Gold December 2016 (GCZ16) futures on barchartdotcom shows the commercials with record shorts and the large speculators (I assume Druckenmiller, Soros, etc) with record longs. It was my impression that people use the phrase the "smart money" to mean the commercials. In your opening above you use "smartmoney" but I don't know who you are referring to. These are extreme times. While I agree with your analysis, the central banks may just bailout the banks. They could do this by buying their shorts and writing off the loss (gold price allowed to rise) or buy capping gold price down (gold price down). I think the central banks will not allow any defaults.
Can you clarify who the smartmoney is above?
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Hello Arpi, what about Wednesday's FOMC meeting, what do you expect? Thanls
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It's FED Minutes only.
FOMC 20-21st Sept only
+2 Reply
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
Usually the same reaction at FED Minutes as at the previous FED.
We rallied after the last FED meeting. So I'm waiting for a breakout or if we've broken out a follow through should come.
+2 Reply
Average days to DCH are 28 for cycles within an upward bias... if this intermediate cycle is a true bull then it would be very unusual for the DCH to occur 9 days after the DCL... I think the odds stay with the bulls on this one and we breakout forming a new daily high within the next two weeks...
+2 Reply
Nice observation. Good job!
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so once we break through the bear market trend-line we go long right and ride to hopefully $1400?
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COT Report from last Friday gives a neutral interpretation, imo... Commercial shorts are at an average level and no concern at this point imo... a slight concern is the Hedge Fund Net Long positions, very high right now but have dropped off a little... Still lots of room for the Traders Long positions to jump back in which is bullish...
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sir i respect ur calculation but this time u may be wrong bec as per my calculation it will go to 1280 $ then long
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Teflonjohn907 niteshkumar
what calculation is that? or are you just eyeballing the chart?
+2 Reply
MetalCruisers niteshkumar
So per your calculation your account will go short, simple.
+2 Reply
Do you think that your edge is in cycles? Those cycles are price action strategy, only discretionary backtesting could prove them. Will try to backtest them.
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DOLLAR GETTING A HAMMERING... We go up arpi... 1388-1400 on its ways...
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JPY rounded bottom. EUR bullish consolidating pattern. Game over USD.
+1 Reply
This particular time and Arpi's idea has really brought out some good technical debates (and a few attitudes). May the best theorist and technician (and their followers) win this week! I'm sticking with Arpi on this one (and the longer timeframe). A pennant on a flag pole with decreasing volume in a bull market early in the second cycle are very strong fundamental signals. Ups and downs within the fundamentals can be scalped at will, but I'm not that good.....
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On the XAUEUR chart there is a Bollinger Band Squeeze in the making! A big move is coming.... Unfortunately we don't know yet the direction... but it´s coming...
The oversold Stochastic makes a move to the upside more probable, but we don't know....
Should happen within the next 2 weeks.. the longer it takes the stronger the move will be...

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MidasTouchConsulting MidasTouchConsulting
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:trading_strategies:bollinger_band_squee
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FOMC meeting script can be bearish for Gold. There could be a great deal of rate hike discussion at that time after supper jobs report and equity markets rallying. Again gambling. It is 50/50.
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Anyone have thoughts on NUGT/DUST?
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As this week will be gold's daily cycle top - most probably- I think it's too late to enter a 3x ETF miner like NUGT.
And DUST maybe next week. But it's really hard to push out any money from the miners' short...
Wait for the oil pullback and enter there. At the next down day. I will try to post an entry point for the ppl left at the station.
+2 Reply
ice_holly01 PRO chartwatchers
Dust will go up next week? Thanks.
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ice_holly01 PRO ice_holly01
BTW the miner is much more weaker than gold for now.
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GDX rallied nearly 300% in 7 months this year.
This has to slow down a bit.
+3 Reply
ice_holly01 PRO chartwatchers
Thanks! I still hold NUGT, hope it can go up this week with gold's daily cycle top.
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GDX/NUGT and gold are not in sync today. As gold goes back to the top of the triangle, if NUGT doesn't lead or follow up, I'm going to take NUGT profits. Not comfortable when the miners and gold get out of sync for me....
+2 Reply
Hi Arpi, and everyone. Regarding comment by rjruhul56, he appears to be hyping some type of too good to be true binary options trading software called Neo2. I have referred him to be checked out by Trading View. Whether he's legit or not, he shouldn't be hyping his product here.
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I don't know if gold is gonna drop like the other commenters mentioned. But i know a bull market when i see it and now it surely looks like a bull market for gold.
+2 Reply
Thanks Arpi!! Where should we TP??
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Could you comment on silver ?
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Similar consolidation like in gold.
It will break out with gold. It's hard to tell will it happen before the end of august or only in September...
+1 Reply
ArtFly chartwatchers
Thank very much for your opinion. Do you think the adjustment can take place by the level of 1873,09 ret 0,382
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In the money. Stop in place.
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Why not 60% to fly :)
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Thanks Arpi! NUGT moving with gold today. Put some money in my pocket on NUGT, holding some more for the breakout.
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I think the Bull's are going to get a hiding .
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Momentum is certainly getting manipulated again.
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dude we still going up !! :D:D George Soros sold all his Gold
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pbartashevich PRO Ibrahim_Maher
How do you know? If he sold we should sell too. He is insider...
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Ibrahim_Maher pbartashevich
yeah sure here is the link http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-15/billionaire-george-soros-buys-stakes-in-liberty-broadband-rovi
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Ibrahim_Maher pbartashevich
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/16/soros-fund-management-slashes-gold-stake-in-second-quarter.html
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thank you for your updates
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Gold/Silver ratio is breaking up from triangle. Maybe a fake out but if confirmed then Gold intends to go down.
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Gold refuses to go up as well as to go down but it more looks like every push up gets sold.
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Thank you chartwatchers ! I think that triangle will break out to upward but the longer time it's delayed the smaller momentum comes. If we have a break out in September G20 meeting Hangzhou it's only a very limited one. I think we have a range after that. Buy the dip and take profits on the break is good. We're waiting for the SMA catching up.
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What do you think about that "George Soros, Jana Partn