chartwatchers
Long

GOLD - Inverted hammer & Momentum killers

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
9514 86 140
No question we are in a triangle...
When a trader - without knowing the cycles - looks at this gold             chart it's looking like a perfect short:
We have a "double top" which will break down soon.
MACD crossed down.
We had a reversal candle on Friday. A few traders think it's a key reversal - but it's not.
In the last 3 days of the week every pop at the upper line of the triangle was killed. actually we tried to break out rfom the triangle 7 times in the lat 9 days. And we end up the week at the bottom of the triangle.
So at the weekend the bears are celebrating counting their money what will arrive to their account when the triangle breaks down.

If the triangle breaks down then we will have a daily cycle top at day 8 in a bull market. I would say that's almost impossible. What looks much more possible to me is that this daily cycle hasn't topped yet.
It will top next week on day 20-21 as we are breaking out to the upside from this triangle as the dollar starts to fall.

The candlestick what we printed on friday is an inverted hammer .
Inverted Hammers represent a potential trend reversal at support levels. After a decline, the long upper shadow indicates buying pressure during the session. However, the bulls were not able to sustain this buying pressure and prices closed well off of their highs to create the long upper shadow. Because of this failure, bullish confirmation is required before action             . So this inverted hammer should be followed by a long green candlestick with heavy volume could act as bullish confirmation.

So all I'm waiting for now is a reversal from the lower trendline of the triangle.
Do not forget that the selloff happened after the European and Asian session in a summer Friday afternoon.
If you start to short this you must be Charles Bronson with death wish.

I still think that smartmoney shows the bears what they want to see. This is the last breath of gold's bear market at the weekly trendline from all time tops. We are just trying to break this level and sooner or later we will .
The falling dollar could help gold             in the breakout.

Summary:
I think we are breaking up from the triangle next week and printing the daily cycle top at 1390-1400$.




Comment:
snapshot
Comment: Bear market trendline on the weekly chart :
snapshot
Comment: So gold was capped on Friday by BIS. And who will get the bag full with shorts?
Retail traders.
http://kingworldnews.com/alert-bis-intervened-in-the-gold-market-to-assist-battered-gold-shorts/
Comment: FED = FOMC
FEDM = FED Minutes
snapshot
Comment: Back in the triangle.
The prove of the manipulation of the gap at the opening.
Almost every gap open gets filled immediately in gold in the next hour.
This one was was not filled though. Most probably we will be in the triangle till FED Minutes.
snapshot
Comment: The evidence of the manipulation is the gap at the opening....
Comment: It seems I was right again.
Gold just doesn't want to break down from the triangle yet.
Inverted hammer is working nicely with the follow through today.
snapshot
Comment: Many asked where to TP.
I'll be watching the price action today and tomorrow.
I will take some profit on the position tomorrow before the FED Minutes though I think we are going to break out and tag 1390-1400 this week.
Comment: Will keep you updated whole week below this post.
Comment: Don't forget the hourly picture.
Let's see what the american momentum killers will do with gold on a day when the dollar is collapsing. Will they risk their money to save the trapped shorts or they will be protecting their money and not attacking ....
snapshot
Comment: As we reached the critical zone I'M taking some profit here. 30-40% of the position.
Just to make sure it will run to 1390-1400.
When I take profit it always breaks out and run.
snapshot
Comment: Everybody should be in profit right now who bought at the buying the dip post or at the momentum killers post. Just put some money into the pocket. But have some position for the breakout.
You never know when the spaceship starts
Comment: Surprise to the upside.
Enjoy the movie:
" The bull awakens"
Comment: Momentum killers are active again as the US session is getting started.
Comment: If stocks are collapsing today and tomorrow with the falling dollar gold will rally.
I agree
TECHNICALLY SPEAKING WE STILL BULLISH
Reply
Here goes that crash with break away gap and very little hope in AUY. It is crash - no resistance from bulls. Similar for other miners. So if miners are falling big time. What that would mean for Gold.
snapshot

We should start considering shorting.
Reply
I mean try to change your mind for a couple of minutes and seek bear signs to short. I think there are plenty of those.
Reply
I am looking at AUY gold mining stock as an indicator. It is enabled sell off mode. Its sell bid constantly exceeds buy bid whole day. Usually it crashes after. It broke the trend line that was going from the beginning.
Look at this nasty chart:
snapshot
Reply
Hello Arpi, any idea why gold is up today and miners are flat?
Thank you very much
Reply
What do you think about that "George Soros, Jana Partners Sell Gold as Price Rises to 2-Year High"

http://fortune.com/2016/08/15/jana-partners-exits-gold-as-price-rises-to-2-year-high/
Reply
I think I have a hungarian opponent in gold.
Maybe I will buy his contracts. LOL
ANyway I dont believe to these news. I do think he is trading so big that never tells what he is doing exactly.
I wouldn't tell if I was that big.
Yes maybe he sold all his gold and bought miners. Or bought silver. Or silver miners.
You never know.
+2 Reply
pbartashevich PRO chartwatchers
Silver is even weaker than gold last two weeks.
Reply
Simon_says chartwatchers
Thanks for your opinion Árpád - Lengyel, magyar – két jó barát, együtt harcol, s issza borát.
Reply
Simon said !
LOL
Very true
Reply
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