When a trader - without knowing the cycles - looks at this gold chart it's looking like a perfect short:
We have a "double top" which will break down soon.
We had a reversal candle on Friday. A few traders think it's a key reversal - but it's not.
In the last 3 days of the week every pop at the upper line of the triangle was killed. actually we tried to break out rfom the triangle 7 times in the lat 9 days. And we end up the week at the bottom of the triangle.
So at the weekend the bears are celebrating counting their money what will arrive to their account when the triangle breaks down.
If the triangle breaks down then we will have a daily cycle top at day 8 in a market. I would say that's almost impossible. What looks much more possible to me is that this daily cycle hasn't topped yet.
It will top next week on day 20-21 as we are breaking out to the upside from this triangle as the dollar starts to fall.
The what we printed on friday is an .
Inverted Hammers represent a potential trend reversal at support levels. After a decline, the long upper shadow indicates buying pressure during the session. However, the bulls were not able to sustain this buying pressure and prices closed well off of their highs to create the long upper shadow. Because of this failure, confirmation is required before action. So this should be followed by a long green with heavy could act as confirmation.
So all I'm waiting for now is a reversal from the lower of the triangle.
Do not forget that the selloff happened after the European and Asian session in a summer Friday afternoon.
If you start to short this you must be Charles Bronson with death wish.
I still think that smartmoney shows the bears what they want to see. This is the last breath of gold's market at the weekly from all time tops. We are just trying to break this level and sooner or later we will .
The falling dollar could help gold in the breakout.
I think we are breaking up from the triangle next week and printing the daily cycle top at 1390-1400$.
FEDM = FED Minutes
The prove of the manipulation of the gap at the opening.
Almost every gap open gets filled immediately in gold in the next hour.
This one was was not filled though. Most probably we will be in the triangle till FED Minutes.
Gold just doesn't want to break down from the triangle yet.
Inverted hammer is working nicely with the follow through today.
I'll be watching the price action today and tomorrow.
I will take some profit on the position tomorrow before the FED Minutes though I think we are going to break out and tag 1390-1400 this week.
Let's see what the american momentum killers will do with gold on a day when the dollar is collapsing. Will they risk their money to save the trapped shorts or they will be protecting their money and not attacking ....
Just to make sure it will run to 1390-1400.
When I take profit it always breaks out and run.
You never know when the spaceship starts
Enjoy the movie:
" The bull awakens"
They are covering the shorts in 2 cases:
- in overbought markets when price is falling and regresses to the mean
- when gold is coming out of the bear market lows. This happened in 2009. Commercials were covering the shorts as we were breaking
above 1000. This is going to happen soon. I have a lot of graphs on my webpage regarding commercial and large speculator positions
which are predicting direction.
But this time the horrible commercial short position is not an excuse for a short. This gold bull can be shorted in the ICL declines.
We just printed the ICL few weeks ago.
The Gold December 2016 (GCZ16) futures on barchartdotcom shows the commercials with record shorts and the large speculators (I assume Druckenmiller, Soros, etc) with record longs. It was my impression that people use the phrase the "smart money" to mean the commercials. In your opening above you use "smartmoney" but I don't know who you are referring to. These are extreme times. While I agree with your analysis, the central banks may just bailout the banks. They could do this by buying their shorts and writing off the loss (gold price allowed to rise) or buy capping gold price down (gold price down). I think the central banks will not allow any defaults.
Can you clarify who the smartmoney is above?
The oversold Stochastic makes a move to the upside more probable, but we don't know....
Should happen within the next 2 weeks.. the longer it takes the stronger the move will be...
And DUST maybe next week. But it's really hard to push out any money from the miners' short...
Wait for the oil pullback and enter there. At the next down day. I will try to post an entry point for the ppl left at the station.