XAUUSD Bears Stronger Than The Bulls

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Gold was stuck in a range between $1365 and $1307 for much of 2018. It recently broke out to the downside, retested that area and then sold off. It is worth noting that although the daily is in a downtrend (which I give more weight too), price is finding support at a key weekly level. As I rarely take positions against the daily trend, we will want to wait for price to bounce to an area of supply. Either $1272 or $1307 are good areas to look for a sell signal.

The RSI and Full STC are all trending down, but signaling a little bounce, and all my moving averages (11, 28, 50, 200 ema's) are bearish on the daily.

For me, Gold looks very weak heading into the last couple months of summer. Though it is much more advised to wait for price action to give you a signal to sell short, I will most likely be doing a blind entry around $1272. When I say blind entry I mean on a retrace without waiting for a sell signal. This is a much riskier approach, but as Gold can be a quick mover and can be influenced by things in the news quite easily, I feel the R/R on a blind entry will be much better than waiting for a signal.

Target would be most recent lows around $1242, but if that level gets broken I will be looking for something closer to the weekly low around $1204. RIsk will be about 1.5% on this trade, and stop placed at the previous structure high. I'll keep the order open unless the chart develops in a way that will make me close it.


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