DX still on negative candles / Short-term Buying order engaged

Gold's general analysis prior to last Trading week: Sideways Price-action all along on the Hourly 4 chart as the consolidation patterns providing the safest framework for dip Buying strategy (and possible Top / High Selling). As Gold was critically Overbought, it was totally Natural to expect Sellers to arise and initiate the Hourly 4 chart correction towards my Support and below #1,778.80, but once again DX rose below the Hourly 4 Support and prevented more serious decline on Gold. The Hourly 4 chart’s Resistance cluster has rejected the Price-action twice already which gives a updated Targets with a potential extension towards #1,817.80 if #1,800.80 psychological barrier breaks. Only if #1,800.80 breaks, I will contemplate Buying the market as at the moment / Hourly 1 chart’s reveals no clues nor configuration is not worth entering. I don't expect today’s session Fundamental reports to be relevant, as I await #1,778.80 Selling extension (Selling on every High) once DX initiates more serious recovery. Gold broke the #1,792.80 Hourly 1 chart Resistance with ease, which has now turned into a Short-term Support as the first test on the previous Hourly 4 candle was unsuccessful. The next barrier on my focus is the #1,817.80 level, which I expect to break with relative ease as the DX formed very Bearish formation near the possible Medium-term Support rejection, next stop should be #1,817.80 configuration, and break of should eye #1,827.80 (only possible if Resistance benchmarks of #1,815.80 and #1,817.80 break). As a result I believe the current level of #1,800.80 was solid new Short-term Buying opportunity, as everything depends on today’s session market closing (full candle closing). If my pattern is postponed and Gold breaks the Resistance zone then aggressively Sell back the uptrend (as it was the case #2 out of #2 times, regarding Daily chart candles), I then have to wait for potential contact with the #1,792.80 Support, to Buy again on Short-term. Gold has finally entered the #1,795.80 - #1,800.80 barrier Zone which has seasonally been the strongest Selling accumulation point since September #2020. Daily chart should be Naturally stabilized as I shift my focus on Weekly (#1W) and Monthly chart, both of which are calling for a Long-term Bearish sustainability (my Medium-term Targets and bias is intact). The Fed loan rate climate (and repurchase agreements fraud) may be the main driver behind current aggressive Volatility and should be Sold immediately if #1,778.80 Short-term Support gets invalidated (thus DX engage the Weekly chart (#1W) full scale recovery attempt, which can be identified as an trend switch on Gold). There is always an outside factor that drives the price to the Resistance seasonally (reversal on Bond Yields or DX) but all are Sold there. It is possible to have a #5 more session period Trading within #1,761.80 - #1,800.80 before the Price-action breaks downwards though based on the #2020/2021 cycle. If Gold does not recover the #1,827.80 Higher High’s Resistance and restores Bullish Short-term trend within #5 sessions, I can Sell on spot with certainty on Short-term. New Medium-term Bearish outlook on Gold will come as no Technical surprise since other assets should Trade favorably for Gold’s decline. Keep in mind that my approach is swing Trading (Long-term positions) within quarterly cycles and my goal is identifying the correct trend for a longer period of time, even if it lags to a small extent.


Technical analysis (Intra-day): Besides the idle start of the E.U. session on DX, Gold is Trading on Weekly High’s, Usd-Jpy pair broke the Neutral Rectangle to the downside - but as mentioned on my previous analysis, the biggest marker on the Short-term is DX which is also Trading near Daily chart’s Support and constantly adding Buying pressure on Gold and making High’s on Weekly (#1W) basis. Interestingly enough, notice how Friday’s session soaring on Gold (Spot prices # +0.51%) was inversely symmetrical to the decline on DX (# -0.47%). That is why I have this as my strongest market marker at the moment. However since Gold’s Monthly Resistance is not far off, I expect Gold to form a Ultimate Top soon (in fact it hasn't even reached the #1,827.80 strong Resistance zone). That’s why, I will make no strategy shift so far and will continue Trading within my model. Reason of my “no call” decisions throughout last week’s sequence were spot on and are those side Swings (Gaps) on aftermath, which could have disastrous impact on my capital preservation formula. Statistically, last #8 out of #8 Monday’s sessions didn’t add any significance, however, on the contrary, Gold is Trading on double Golden Cross and break of Triangle added boost to Buyers which may now Target #1,817.80 extension. The Short-term Bullish trend is well preserved within Hourly 4 chart healthy Ascending Channel is intact and should be seeing #1,815.80 - #1,817.80 belt first, no matter what occurs throughout today’s session, with #1,827.80 in extension if #1,790.80 is intact.


My position: I am only expecting Gold to rise more under these conditions. If Gold don't break #1,805.80, it is going to be a ranged session but if it does, I may see a quiet a Bullish session on the aftermath. As for the Price-action, for now Gold is consolidating within #1,800.80 - #1,810.80 as expected, with DX remained very weak. Important notice to mention is that current Gold's uptrend is still very connected with weakness on DX, as an sole reason why Gold is constantly rising. I am expecting possible #1,817.80 test, where Gold may price a Top there, and Sell back the gains all the way towards #1,792.80 Support cluster, as I don't see any reasons for Buying sustainability, as I've just used handpicked Buying opportunity market delivered. Gold is surely Bearish on Medium-term, as I will continue to practice strict Risk management, means that I will not await Stop-loss to be triggered if market sentiment changes regarding Intra-day basis, where I will instantly alter my order if Price-action Trades against me. I have engaged my Buying order on #1,800.80 barrier break (followed by Triangle break), calling for #1,817.80 Buying extension.