XBTFX

Gold: back to $2K?

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
The USD gained during the previous week; however, risks are still holding especially when it comes to Fed's monetary policy and ongoing negotiations regarding debt-ceiling. Gold was following its correlation with USD, and its value dropped to the level of $1.950. Still, Gold finished the previous trading week around $1.970. The level of $2K has not been tested on this occasion, leaving some space for it in a week ahead.

The RSI indicator was pushed below level of 50 during the week, reaching the level of 40. It shows increased potential for the oversold side to be reached in the coming period. Moving average of 50 days is still diverging from its MA200 counterpart, and continues to support the “Golden cross” which occurred in January this year.

Gold will start a week ahead by testing the short term resistance line at $1.970. There is lower probability for this line to be clearly breached to the upside, however, the level of $2K might be tested for one more time. On the opposite side, there is currently a decreased probability that $1.970 support might be clearly breached to the downside.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are for USD: FOMC Minutes, GDP Growth Rate, PCE Index, Durable Goods orders, Michigan consumer Sentiment for May
Certainly, any news on potential resolution of the debt-ceiling should be closely watched, as it might bring some market volatility.

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