XBTFX

MARKETS week ahead: May 21 – 27

CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL   Crypto Total Market Cap, $
Last week in the news

Overall sentiment on financial markets continues to be uncertain when taken into account all inputs from US officials regarding the state of the US economy and potential further monetary measures. Current uncertainties are additionally supported by the lack of agreement about the US debt ceiling. The EU markets finished the week in green amid US debt ceiling non-agreement, while US equities were down due to the same reason. The crypto market remained relatively flat during the week, with Bitcoin ending the week modestly below 27K , and Ether modestly above $1.8K.

Fed Chair Powell gave a speech at a monetary conference in Washington during the previous week, but said nothing new when future monetary moves are in question. Further rate increases will depend on the current state of the economy. Inflation and labor markets are two important segments which will be closely watched also in the future, and depending on their developments, the Fed will make decisions accordingly. There is also some potential for the Fed to pause rate hike at their meeting in June, but it does not provide certainty that hikes will not continue during the second quarter of this year. Economists are concerned over potential over-hiking, considering the fact that it takes some time until monetary policy fully transmits into the economy.

The saga over the US debt ceiling continues. The agreement still has not been reached. On one side, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and US President Joe Biden noted their beliefs that the agreement might be reached until June 1st. On the other side, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen gave a speech in which she openly expressed the worst-case scenario if an agreement is not reached. She noted that a US default would trigger a “number of financial markets break – with worldwide panic triggering margin calls, runs and fire sales”. Such a scenario would leave at least 8 million Americans without a job, while the final deadline is set for June 1st, she noted.

The G-7 meeting of seven most developed countries in the world started on Friday in Hiroshima, Japan. Conclusions from this meeting will be briefly followed by the markets, considering that many important global topics will be discussed, like international trade and security.

Although Binance exchanger announced that it will cease operations in Canada due its restrictive newly adopted law on digital assets, Coinbase (COIN) officials commented that they are very found of the new law, as it provides regulatory clarity for companies operating within the crypto segment, commenting also that this type of clarity is highly unavailable in the US laws. As officially announced, Coinbase is planning to expand operations in Canada, by introducing Interac payment rails to Coinbase platform.


Crypto market cap

There is currently a sort of status-quo on financial markets, except for US Treasury bonds. Investors were expecting to hear more information on future Fed moves from Powell's speech in Washington during the previous week, however, he provided no additional information except for those that the market already priced. On the other hand, Treasury Secretary Yellen mentioned some scary dooms-day scenario for global financial markets, if the US debt ceiling is not increased by June 1st. All this provides a sort of wait-and-see situation for investors, which are trying to figure out which side to trade. As of the end of the previous week, there have been some movements from US equities to EU equities. Probably, some investors have decided to secure their funds, through geographical diversification, until the saga with US debt is finally settled.

The crypto market is making a pause from a two-week correction. During the previous week, total crypto market capitalization remained relatively flat, with a total funds inflow of minor $5B. Daily trading volumes also decreased from a week before, trading around 40B on a daily basis. This is further confirming that the market is on a road of exhaustion of previous moves to the downside, and is following general status-quo on financial markets. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year remained flat at 44%, where it has added a total $335B to the market cap.

Although majority of coins ended the week with a small gain, there were also few of them which finished the week in red. Bitcoin was traded relatively flat, with a small gain of 0.4% or $2B on a weekly basis. At the same time, Ether was traded in a negative territory, with at loss of $2B in a market cap or total 1%. XRP was also a coin which was supported by the news related to developments in Ripple company, and managed to gain $2B or 9.8% compared to the end of the previous week. Solid gainers of the week in relative terms were Solana, which increased its market cap by 8.9% w/w, OMG Network was up by 10% and Litecoin with a surge of 14% within a single week. On the losing side were Solana, with a drop in value of 2.9%, Maker was down by 1.6%, while Monero dropped by 1.4% w/w. As for coins in circulation, Filecoin continues with its strong push to the upside, with added 0.8% of new coins. Polkadot also increased its circulating coins by 0.8%, while at the same time, Ether decreased circulating coins by 2.1% within a week.


Crypto futures market

Both ETH and BTC futures ended Friday`s trading session in green. However, in line with developments on the spot market, movements to the positive side were minor. BTC short term futures were closed up by around 2% on average, while long term ones were traded with only minor change compared to the week before. Futures maturing in December 2023 were traded by 2.1% higher, ending the week at level of $27.590, while those maturing in December next year were closed at price $28.280, almost without a change compared to the week before.

ETH short term futures were up around 1.5% w/w, while futures with longer maturities were traded higher by modest 0.5%. Futures maturing in December 2023 were closed at price of $1.824, and those maturing in December next year were traded at the latest price of $1.869.

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.