EURUSD: Fails at 1.1560 — Bears Aim for 1.1460Hello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current EURUSD setup.
Market Analysis
EURUSD recently rallied after breaking above the long-term descending trendline, but the advance stalled at the 1.1560 Resistance Zone, where sellers stepped back into the market. The latest rejection from resistance suggests bullish momentum is fading, while price remains vulnerable to a pullback.
Currently, EURUSD is trading below the 1.1560 Resistance Zone while holding above the 1.1460 Support Zone. Price is consolidating after the rejection, with sellers attempting to regain short-term control.
My Scenario & Strategy
As long as EURUSD remains below the 1.1560 Resistance Zone, the bearish scenario remains valid. A rejection from current levels could push price toward the 1.1460 Support Zone (TP1).
However, if EURUSD breaks and closes above the 1.1560 Resistance Zone, the bearish outlook would weaken, opening the door for a continuation of the bullish trend.
That’s the setup I’m tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk. EURUSD: Rejection from Resistance Could Open the Way to 1.1350Hello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current EURUSD setup.
Market Analysis
EURUSD previously traded inside a broad range before breaking below support, confirming a bearish shift in market structure. After the decline, buyers regained some control and pushed price into an ascending channel, but the recovery stalled beneath the long-term descending trendline. The latest rejection from the 1.1420 Resistance Zone suggests sellers are defending this area once again.
Currently, EURUSD is trading above the 1.1350 Support Zone while remaining below the 1.1420 Resistance Zone and the descending trendline. Price continues to trade near the lower boundary of the ascending channel, where the next directional move is likely to develop.
My Scenario & Strategy
As long as EURUSD remains below the 1.1420 Resistance Zone and the long-term descending trendline, the bearish scenario remains valid. A rejection from current levels could push price toward the 1.1350 Support Zone (TP1).
However, if EURUSD breaks above the 1.1420 Resistance Zone and the descending trendline, the bearish outlook would weaken, opening the door for a stronger bullish recovery.
That’s the setup I’m tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk. EURUSD: Sellers Defend 1.1400 — 1.1330 Becomes the Next TargetHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current EURUSD setup.
Market Analysis
EURUSD previously traded above a rising trendline before breaking below it, confirming a shift in momentum. Price then entered a descending channel, where multiple failed breakouts near the 1.1400 Resistance Zone confirmed that sellers remain in control. The latest rejection from channel resistance reinforces the bearish structure.
Currently, EURUSD is trading below the 1.1400 Resistance Zone while holding above the 1.1330 Support Zone. Price continues to respect the descending channel, suggesting downside pressure remains dominant.
My Scenario & Strategy
As long as EURUSD remains below the 1.1400 Resistance Zone and continues respecting the descending channel, the bearish scenario remains valid. A continuation lower could push price toward the 1.1330 Support Zone (TP1).
However, if EURUSD breaks above the 1.1400 Resistance Zone and the upper channel boundary, the bearish outlook would weaken, opening the door for a stronger recovery.
That’s the setup I’m tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk. Gold Rebounds From Wedge Support With 4,100 Resistance in FocusHello traders! Here’s my technical outlook based on the current XAUUSD (1H) chart structure. XAUUSD previously traded inside a descending channel before breaking above resistance, signaling a shift in short-term momentum. After the breakout, price entered a broad recovery but is still trading inside a larger rising wedge, where the 4,100 Seller Zone continues to cap upside attempts. Currently, XAUUSD is holding above the 4,010 Buyer Zone and the wedge support line while remaining below the 4,100 Seller Zone. The latest bounce from support suggests buyers are attempting to regain control. As long as XAUUSD stays above the 4,010 Buyer Zone and continues respecting the wedge support, the bullish scenario remains valid. A sustained rebound could push price toward the 4,100 Seller Zone (TP1). However, a breakdown below 4,010 would weaken the bullish outlook and favor another move lower. Please share this idea with your friends and click "Boost" 🚀 
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The Best Technical Analysis Removes InformationMany traders begin their trading journey believing that better analysis comes from gathering more information. New indicators are added, additional confirmations are introduced, and every chart slowly becomes more complicated than the last.
The assumption feels logical.
If one tool provides useful information, then five tools should provide even better information. Over time, however, the opposite often happens. Every additional variable creates another opinion, another confirmation to wait for, and another opportunity for conflicting signals to appear.
Instead of increasing clarity, complexity begins reducing it.
The strongest technical analysis usually works in reverse.
Rather than asking what can be added to the chart, experienced traders ask what can be removed without changing the quality of the decision. This process forces attention back toward the variables that actually influence execution.
Price structure.
Liquidity.
Participation.
Context.
These elements existed before indicators were created, and they continue existing regardless of which tools traders choose to use. Indicators can certainly provide useful supporting information, but they rarely replace the need to understand how the market itself is behaving.
There is another advantage to simplification.
Cleaner analysis creates greater consistency. When the same framework is applied every day, decisions become easier to compare over time. Mistakes become easier to identify because they are no longer hidden beneath dozens of conflicting variables.
The objective is not having the most sophisticated chart.
The objective is building a framework that consistently highlights the information that actually changes decision-making.
A useful question to ask after every trading session is simple.
If one element disappeared from the chart tomorrow, would the quality of my decisions change?
If the answer is no, it probably never deserved a place there in the first place.
Good technical analysis is rarely about seeing more.
It is about removing everything that prevents you from seeing what already matters. EURUSD: Breaks Below Rising Channel – 1.1330 Support in FocusHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current EURUSD setup.
Market Analysis
EURUSD previously traded inside a large symmetrical triangle before breaking below support, confirming a bearish shift in market structure. After the breakdown, price consolidated inside a broad range and later broke lower once again, extending the downtrend.
Currently, EURUSD is trading inside an upward channel while remaining below the 1.1430 Resistance Zone and the long-term descending trendline. The latest rejection near channel resistance suggests sellers continue defending the upper boundary despite the recent recovery.
My Scenario & Strategy
As long as EURUSD remains below the 1.1430 Resistance Zone and continues respecting both the descending trendline and the upper boundary of the ascending channel, the bearish scenario remains valid. A rejection from current levels could push price toward the 1.1330 Support Zone (TP1).
However, if EURUSD secures a confirmed breakout above the 1.1430 Resistance Zone and the long-term trendline, the bearish outlook would weaken, allowing buyers to extend the recovery.
That’s the setup I’m tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk. SOX Time@Mode #1: The Speedlines Cross Friday at 12,424.Everyone called the top in semiconductors last month. On my own timeframes, only one of them agreed.
The daily turned down. The weekly and the monthly are both still bullish. That is the whole disagreement, and the chart picks a side this week.
Look at the two panes. On the monthly, the advance off the April 2025 low is intact and the structure has not broken. On the daily, the selloff printed a drawdown north of 20% off the June high, and then the low bounced off the uptrend speedline rather than cutting through it. At 12,410 the index has clawed back to about 15% under that high. Real damage, still confined to the lower timeframe.
Friday is the first test. The 50% speedlines off the uptrend and the downtrend converge at 12,424, and price is already sitting on it. If that settles nothing, the 25% speedlines cross on August 7 at 13,055.
Everything that decides this falls between those two dates. The Fed meets on the 28th and 29th. Meta and Microsoft report after the close on the 29th, Amazon on the 30th. The next round of capex numbers lands on top of a rate decision, and then the chart reaches its second crossing.
Higher up sit two Warsh-era FOMC levels, 13,291.75 and 13,876.77. Those are the prices that baked in expectations going into those meetings, the same construction that has been capping QQQ at 731.62. Semis have to clear both before the monthly bull case means anything again.
This week's earnings argued for more upside. Texas Instruments guided the September quarter up around 8% sequentially, analog reaccelerated, embedded turned after lagging the entire correction, and data center showed up on their growth list. Cloud growth accelerated at Alphabet. Nobody reported a demand problem.
Then look at how the buyers are paying for it. Alphabet doubled quarterly capex year over year, went free cash flow negative, halted buybacks entirely, and raised 49.6 billion in equity and preferred in June with AI infrastructure named in the use of proceeds. Tesla capex is up 142% year over year and went free cash flow negative for the first time since early 2024. For three years this build came out of operating cash flow. A self funded build barely notices the rate path. An issued one does.
**Holding 12,424:** the daily loses the argument and 13,055 becomes the next test rather than a ceiling, with the two Warsh levels above it.
**Losing it:** the daily read carries, and the monthly still has to break before the rest matters. Only then am I looking at 9,755, and 7,095 into year end.
Invalidation is a monthly reclaim of 14,246.96. That prints and the bear case is finished outright, no reinterpretation.
Macro and Time@Mode, same as always. Everything I publish is timestamped. Euro Rebounds From Support — Can Buyers Reach 1.1460?Hello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current EURUSD chart structure.
Market Analysis
EURUSD previously traded inside a descending channel before breaking above the upper boundary, confirming a bullish shift in market structure. After establishing a strong base near the 1.1400 Support Zone, buyers continued to defend higher lows, allowing price to develop inside an ascending channel.
Currently, EURUSD is trading above the 1.1400 Support Zone while remaining below the 1.1460 Resistance Zone. The recent pullback held above channel support, suggesting buyers are still in control as long as the bullish structure remains intact.
My Scenario & Strategy
As long as EURUSD remains above the 1.1400 Support Zone and continues respecting the ascending channel, the bullish scenario remains valid. A continuation higher could push price toward the 1.1460 Resistance Zone (TP1).
However, if EURUSD breaks below the 1.1400 Support Zone and loses the ascending channel, the bullish outlook would weaken, allowing sellers to regain short-term control.
That’s the setup I’m tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk. Fed blackout; AI-capex cluster, tariff sunset 7/24Four dated events inside five days carry the tape into the July 28-29 FOMC and the Fed is in blackout the whole week. USTR Section 301 determinations on Monday 7/20 (weakly sourced date, verify). The midweek after-close earnings cluster (TSLA, TXN, NOW and IBM's formal print Tuesday, GOOGL the Wednesday marquee) is the first live test of the AI-capex top read that fired on 7/17 across the semis and hyperscaler shorts.
The SOX closed the week -12.5% and over 20% off its late-June high, bear-market territory, after China's Moonshot open model. Section 122 sunsets 00:01 ET Friday 7/24, taking the US effective tariff rate from about 11% to about 8.2% absent a Congressional extension (no extension bill pending). Friday 9:45 the Flash PMIs land, composite consensus ~51.9 (July), June manufacturing 55.7 and services 51.3. Composite over 50 keeps the growth crack un-tripped and the higher-for-longer, no-cut regime intact.
On Saturday I posted the QQQ weekly-top call: QQQ closed the week -4.16% at 695.33, back under the first Warsh FOMC key level 731.62 (my median of the event range, the price that bakes in expectations plus reaction plus digested positioning around the regime-reset FOMC). Weekly signal projects five downside targets stacking to 468. Structure rhymes with the January 2022 top. Invalidation is a weekly close over 731.62. SPY closed under its Warsh line 745.41 too, so the AI-capex re-rate is broader than one index.
Energy stays the receipt: Brent through $90 on the Monday reopen on an open US-Iran shooting war around the Strait; gasoline long half booked and a runner on (products over crude); NWE diesel crack a record ~$60-66 on Russia's producer-inclusive export ban. Signals scorecard: BULL 4 / BEAR 3 / NEUTRAL 11, two factors past kill lines (P/E 26.7x over 25, Junk Spreads 2.71 under 3.0). VIX 18.4 is sub-20 into the tariff binary and the AI-capex cluster; own cheap optionality over the directional bet.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie. 
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