goldenBear88

Clash between Technical and Fundamental side

Short
FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Gold's general commentary: Gold has hit the #1,821.80 Resistance and didn’t seemed to struggle to get past it. However, unless #1,832.80 breaks, I can't call for a continuation of current uptrend, even though the dominant Hourly 1 chart pattern is an Ascending Channel. As a result I suggest to continue Selling (every recent peak) the current #6-session Buying spree, monitoring the Bear and Bull clash / which side would prevail, as I give more probabilities to the downside. Fundamentally, the Fed delivered mixed assurances (firstly hawkish stance on Fed minutes and later on Powell's Bullish note for Gold on following speech) and that's why Gold is showing anemic / weak activity (Low Volumed sessions). That development alone was Fundamentally heavily Bearish for the DX and Bond Yields, hence Bullish for safe-havens such as Gold. On the Technical configuration, both Hourly 1 and Hourly 4 charts printed an solid Ascending Channel which as long as it remains Supported by the Hourly 4 chart’s #1,811.80, it aims at the critical #1,832.80 level (which has been a Support on November #22 and was representing the Resistance on November #10). However, Gold will remain Neutral unless one of those benchmarks break, which will provide the sentiment for the next #1 - #2 week’s horizon.


Technical analysis: The Short-term Price-action is Neutral at it’s best as E.U. opening delivered flat movements with Bearish gradient, exactly what I have been expecting. I can spot idle movements on Hourly 4 chart with #1,811.80 precise Support, Gold eventually stopped the uptrend, and it is worth noting that both correlating assets are not working in Sellers favour, DX is on a Descending Channel (still wasn't able to test the Resistance once again which can add Selling pressure on Gold) while Bond Yields found the Support and engaged the Hourly 4 chart mini recovery. Visible though on the Hourly 4 chart, all indicators showing Bearish values (Technically Gold’s fair Price would be below #1,800.80 already) and can spot that Gold should break the Rectangle with clear Higher Low’s and Lower High’s, as it is much needed to wait for turn / outcome on Bond Yields and DX to it’s lesser extent. See how the very same divergence has Traded since October #7. On November #6 almost near the Higher High, Price-action started rising on the Ascending Channel, but once it broken the Resistance, dipped again and almost formed a new Lower Low, when Fundamentals left the main stage / which is main evidence that these are not usual Trading sessions as Gold is Trading on huge Swings (new norm), as I can’t rule out repetition of mentioned variance. Then again after mentioned Low, Gold started rising until the next Bull Divergence (which means, after #1,811.80 and #1,821.80 in extension, I expect parabolic decline towards #1,752.80 test/Medium-term). If I had to take a Short-term guess regarding what is going to happen on today’s session, I would note an idle movements until Wall Street opening Bell and gradual #1,811.80 test. All in all, I won't engage any orders unless #1,811.80 benchmark breaks where I will be ready to pursue #1,800.80 barrier and #1,792.80 sequence in extension. I am more than satisfied with my current Trading results.

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