goldenBear88

Gold on another Fundamental rally

Short
OANDA:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
As discussed throughout my Friday's session commentary: "My position: Only factor which is keeping Bullish bias alive is DX taking strong hits and as soon as DX starts reversing on new Bullish Medium-term leg, Gold will deliver decline of current Inflated Price-action. However, Gold still remains very sensitive to every Bullish development where minor Bearish spikes on DX / Gold is easily rising while DX on Intra-day correction, Selling Volume on Gold is almost non existent (very Low) as Gold should already Trade near #2,352.80 benchmark. Regardless I have engaged my Selling order with #2,386.80 entry point (#2,352.80 remains my optimal Target for the fractal)."


My #2,386.80 Selling order engaged throughout Friday's session triggered #2,395.80 (#9-point) Stop-loss as I was prepared (as witnessed many times in near past from mid-October) for aggressive Bullish #30 - #50 point movement which made me remain off the market and monitor the sequence from sidelines.



Technical analysis: Aggressive Bullish Fundamental spike came as no surprise as candles are arriving strongly and distorting Technical trends. The Price-action is back up passed the Weekly (#1W) High’s and Long-term Investors should start taking Profits on their Buying orders (that explains Gold becoming firm near #2,350’s Neutral zone and downtrend which was stalled). Consulting Gold's Daily chart, Trading on biggest difference percentage previous and current Year, I personally doubt that Gold will rise more than #2,400.80 - #2,700.80 for this Bullish sequence. Despite all this and from a Technical stand-point, Daily chart is showcasing that correction is on the cards within Higher High’s, able to deliver another aggressive takedown with #2,352.80 Higher High’s Lower zone as an optimal Target (remember that Gold always delivers #3 declines and then forms a Bottom (#3 Lower Low’s extensions mentioned throughout my remarks)). However, #MA50 on Daily chart is still preserved and keeping Medium-term Buying bias alive. As I can clearly spot, these are the most Volatile times on Gold since #2020 with the Volatility variable on (#91.82%) last Week, last Year the variable was on mere (#62.80%).


Fundamental analysis: The Price-action didn’t took me by surprise, as Asian Stock markets last night withstood this firestorm, but the E.U. markets (which where the losers of the memorandum and possible renewed recession fears) ended in enormous losses. I cannot speculate how long this state of uncertainty will last for but for as long as it does, I will adjust my strategy adding strict Risk management. Technically, one should read the charts properly and current newly formed possible Top is nothing more than temporary which is pointing on more serious Short-term gains on Gold. As for the correlations and when Gold follows more closely one asset compared to another, this is just up to the analyst (me) to determine.


My position: Regardless, even though Gold is skyrocketing, it is showing signs of exhaustion. The more Gold rises, more aggressive Medium to Long-term decline / correction will be as Gold is Trading on Inflated Price-action. I still haven't got conditions to re-Sell Gold and will remain on sidelines. I am Highly satisfied with my re-Sell orders lately.

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