When I posted my last gold idea
all the fancy newsletter writers – for 50-100$- were talking about how price will break down 1268. Everybody was finding bearish patterns on the chart: double top, triple top, head and shoulders, even someone was posting a descending triangle etc, etc. No one was watching the time boxes… We had weeks to break down that 1268 level and it never happened. By this week of course all these expensive guys were long from the exact bottom.
Now they are talking about how price will slice through the 1350-60 level tomorrow on the NFP report. Before we would start to celebrate how the dam will break I would warn everybody that we are getting late in the first daily cycle. It’s day 23 today and the previous ICL’s first daily cyles topped out on day 20-25. Of course it doesn’t mean we are going to drop like the rock tomorrow, but chances are much higher that this rally will take a breather and we will print a daily cycle low in the following days.
Yesterday price turned down violently from the multi month trendeline at 1343. We didn’t get an immediate follow through today but price is printing one more reversal candle on the daily chart.
And the hourly chart is looking like a double top:
The hourly double top is just perfect:
1. fast move up to the top
2. fast move down
3. slow suffering move to the second top
4. fast move down erasing 23 hours of slow move up in 3 hours.
…. and we are crawling on the 50 MA. These kind of crawling moves are usually breaking to the downside.
Can we break 1365-75 this year? Yes I think we can, not here immediately but in the second daily cycle in July or early August.
Can someone just sit in a gold position waiting for a breakout ? Of course you can but the chance is high in the next few days you will have to face to some serious drawdown. Why?
I know most of you are waiting for this kind of ICL:
But this ICL is much closer to these kind of frustrating bottoms, as we wasted many days at 1270:
or this:
the first daily cycle low is testing back the breakout or the 100 SMA.
In our case it would be something like this in the following days:
So in this idea I just wanted to show that the time to go long was 3 weeks ago , when everybody was bearish. Not now when everybody is talking about how gold is going to 1500.
I will load the gold train when price is getting oversold on the RSI and the SlowStochastic possibly at the DCL.
all the fancy newsletter writers – for 50-100$- were talking about how price will break down 1268. Everybody was finding bearish patterns on the chart: double top, triple top, head and shoulders, even someone was posting a descending triangle etc, etc. No one was watching the time boxes… We had weeks to break down that 1268 level and it never happened. By this week of course all these expensive guys were long from the exact bottom.
Now they are talking about how price will slice through the 1350-60 level tomorrow on the NFP report. Before we would start to celebrate how the dam will break I would warn everybody that we are getting late in the first daily cycle. It’s day 23 today and the previous ICL’s first daily cyles topped out on day 20-25. Of course it doesn’t mean we are going to drop like the rock tomorrow, but chances are much higher that this rally will take a breather and we will print a daily cycle low in the following days.
Yesterday price turned down violently from the multi month trendeline at 1343. We didn’t get an immediate follow through today but price is printing one more reversal candle on the daily chart.
And the hourly chart is looking like a double top:
1. fast move up to the top
2. fast move down
3. slow suffering move to the second top
4. fast move down erasing 23 hours of slow move up in 3 hours.
…. and we are crawling on the 50 MA. These kind of crawling moves are usually breaking to the downside.
Can we break 1365-75 this year? Yes I think we can, not here immediately but in the second daily cycle in July or early August.
Can someone just sit in a gold position waiting for a breakout ? Of course you can but the chance is high in the next few days you will have to face to some serious drawdown. Why?
I know most of you are waiting for this kind of ICL:
But this ICL is much closer to these kind of frustrating bottoms, as we wasted many days at 1270:
In our case it would be something like this in the following days:
So in this idea I just wanted to show that the time to go long was 3 weeks ago , when everybody was bearish. Not now when everybody is talking about how gold is going to 1500.
I will load the gold train when price is getting oversold on the RSI and the SlowStochastic possibly at the DCL.
Comment:
Comment:
And this is the breakout where I definetely don’t want to have a long position.
Comment:
No question: we are heading down into the daily cycle low.
Comment:
Updated gold in a new idea:
Comment:
False breakout, high volume, red pinbar, late in the daily cycle, with dxy rally and indicator divergence.
I hope everybody is out who had longs.
I hope everybody is out who had longs.
