XAUUSD - KOG REPORT!

10/07/22

KOG Report:

In last week’s KOG Report we said we were still not convinced we had seen a low in Gold and that we would be expecting more selling pressure on the precious metal in the week. We suggested that we would see ranging price action in the early session and that if we see resistance in that immediate level of around 1816 we felt this would represent an opportunity to short the market with the lower target being 1795. During the course of the week we had seen immense bearish movement with the price closing on the weekly just above 1740 but below the 1750 level. It was a good week in Camelot with all the lower Gold targets being hit apart from one which still remains!

So, what can we expect in the week ahead?

To start with, we would suggest caution at the moment with short trades unless we see that 1750-55 level hold as strong resistance. Even though we have a target below we’re too low here to start targeting shorts targets for the time being. We have support below at around the 1720 level which is an important region for this to stay above and for bulls to get the retracement that they want to technically cover some of this movement down. So, what we want to look for this week is a strong support to be formed so we can attempt to go long up to at least that 1785 level and potentially 1800! The problem is, this is Gold, and the market knows there are a lot of buyers stuck up above 1800 so do they settle the range between 1785-95 and 1720-25? We’ll have to wait and see.

As always, we’ll look at this with two scenarios in mind with the view of trading the shorts level to level and trying to capture a long up to at least 1785 initially.

Scenario 1:

Markets opens and creeps up into that 1750-55 level where it finds resistance. Based on resistance at this level we feel there will be an opportunity to short the market back down into the 1735, 1730 and below that 1720 level. We want to see an undercut low and confirmed support before we then look to take the long to target the 1775 and 1785 levels initially!

Scenario 2:

Markets open we see Gold push to the downside during the early sessions, we will be looking for 1735-30 and below that 1720-25 for a confirmed support and then feel this would represent an opportunity to long the market back up into 1750-55, 1770-75 and above that 1785.

July should be bullish for Gold so there could be a turn at some point and we’ll get a nice ride to the upside, how far though, remains to be seen! We’ve maintained the bearish outlook on Gold for a while now and said the Dollar will triumph in these markets, which it has! There is fear in the markets and the moves are extreme, we’re seeing choppy price action and extended swings. Please be careful in these markets, adapt to the environment and position yourself in such a way that you’re not caught of guard with the moves. One of the best ways to do this is to keep the lot sizes sensible and make sure you’re have reliable risk model in place.

Hope this helps in preparation for the week ahead, we will update you as we go along as we usually do.

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As always, trade safe.

KOG