Gold weekly update 12-16.06

Last week was very unclear, every breakout was reversal. Until the CPI and the FOMC it will be unclear. Initially we may see bearish moves, because on speculation of higher rates.




Macroeconomics
Gold will be driven by CPI and the FOMC meeting.
The labour market readings were mixed, so they do not give a clear indication of the FOMC meeting.

At the moment, traders are speculating that the FED will continue to raise interest rates.




Top-Down Analysis
The month is still bearish, but there are still 3 weeks to go until the end of the month.

The week closed as an inside bar, suggesting further consolidation. The last two weeks have been dojis, so there is no clear direction.

There is a major double bottom liquidity, but we have already seen the price can leave this liquidity for later.

The price failed to break the recent bullish manipulation and reacted with a strong bullish impulse.
The "perfect" double bottom is actually engulfing candle, suggesting that this is not a major liquidity, but a low liquidity move to the upside.

Friday's price action is all doji, so no clear direction.



Benchmark

Overall, the data is mixed. I am more bullish, because of the divergence between the benchmark indices.



COT Reports

Big players are bullish.




Gold vs Silver


Silver is very bullish, but is moving in a bullish channel. Right now it is trading at the top of the channel and closed the day as a doji, which leads me to believe that we may first see the bottom of that channel before another rally.





US Yields


For now, yields are more bullish, but the FOMC will decide their faith.
Although yields are rising, gold is not falling, but remains stable.




XAUUSD vs GDX


I think gold will respect the channel and go higher.




Momentum


The RSI is bullish and I believe it will continue to rise.