Hey guys, given how the market has been consolidating within the range of 1959-1965 since Friday afternoon, Sunday evening and now Monday I can very much see there's been a big indecision battle between "big time" Bulls and Bears, big investors are in definite fear of what Jerome Powell will be announcing the coming days and the FOMC as a whole, given the large sudden rise in price for this action after the dollar was "trash-talked" into a decline they've made it very clear that the dollar will rise a total amount of 75BPS to combat inflation, however the fears of recession are still very much awake. I base my trades off simple price action with the help of a few very simple indicators such as Volume Profile and Pivot Points...but mainly simple price action and understanding of market movement in multiple assets, indices and currencies; with that being said as the reader you can rest assured that history repeats itself and if we were to see the bigger picture we can definitely expect action coming in between the middle of the month of March and the end of the month of February towards both the upside and the downside. Back-testing and realizing that assets move in a historically repetitive pattern based off "big time" financial market movers and macroeconomic factors is also a good way of understanding how any asset such as Gold could possibly move. Many will disagree and that's fine, I'm not publishing this in order to convince anyone that my trade will go as I'm planning but I'm basing myself off past agendas for this asset, with that being said here's my idea entirely for the upcoming movement.
#1: We can expect Gold to hit it's MONTHLY high very much sooner than most are currently assuming basing ourselves off global economy and how multiple "big time" markets are pushing precious metals as a form of currency such as Russia and China joining forces to push this agenda.
#2: COT Data indicates that 72.59% of "big time" Bulls are holding long positions while only a 27.41% of "big time" Bears holding Short positions, and as traders we all know that a staple rule for retail trading is "Don't retail trade against a market maker", rather ride the wave instead and don't blow your account.
#3: Retail Sentiment for XAU is at 68% in Long positions while a sharp 32% are holding Short positions which isn't as far off a stretch if we were to really take the time to do the math.
Given how the history of XAU goes and has gone throughout the years I'm not shocked at all to see how this BEAR MARKET rally and multiple BEAR MARKET years have caused a lot of fear, confusion and instability within the market itself after seeing such BULLISH action, but as far as price action goes we have all seen these patterns before on the XAU chart. We can expect price to both drop back to the 1700's maybe sooner than later and we can expect to grab these moves, but the rebound of the price of the asset will be just as historical simply because the pressure and strength of the dollar will cause serious issues in the grand-scheme of things, also pushing GOLD and other assets that go hand-in-hand to rise alongside the US Dollar which is also incredibly historical.
Now, Jerome Powell could've simply pumped the market before a giant sell-off on this asset again but before this said "giant sell-off" there has to be a retest of certain pivotal price points such as 1900 and 1920 and we can also expect the asset to rise to possible 1970 to 1998-2000 before they decide to liquidate this asset and as well as meeting "big time" take-profit points on the chart while hunting down minor stop-loss marks. Keeping in mind that macroeconomic factors are a becoming a big deal for Gold due to the conversion of these assets into currencies we can definitely expect the United States to grab hold of this "milkshake" and try to profit from all of this "global crisis" around the dollar. Let's remember that the US Dollar WILL reach incredible highs and we can expect a possible WAR scenario within countries over financial instability.
I suggest to either wait for XAU to get past the 1883 price range to place your entire BULLISH positions or allow for gold to 1823 which is clearly a swing range for this asset.
Trade safe and always remember, these are only numbers.
#1: We can expect Gold to hit it's MONTHLY high very much sooner than most are currently assuming basing ourselves off global economy and how multiple "big time" markets are pushing precious metals as a form of currency such as Russia and China joining forces to push this agenda.
#2: COT Data indicates that 72.59% of "big time" Bulls are holding long positions while only a 27.41% of "big time" Bears holding Short positions, and as traders we all know that a staple rule for retail trading is "Don't retail trade against a market maker", rather ride the wave instead and don't blow your account.
#3: Retail Sentiment for XAU is at 68% in Long positions while a sharp 32% are holding Short positions which isn't as far off a stretch if we were to really take the time to do the math.
Given how the history of XAU goes and has gone throughout the years I'm not shocked at all to see how this BEAR MARKET rally and multiple BEAR MARKET years have caused a lot of fear, confusion and instability within the market itself after seeing such BULLISH action, but as far as price action goes we have all seen these patterns before on the XAU chart. We can expect price to both drop back to the 1700's maybe sooner than later and we can expect to grab these moves, but the rebound of the price of the asset will be just as historical simply because the pressure and strength of the dollar will cause serious issues in the grand-scheme of things, also pushing GOLD and other assets that go hand-in-hand to rise alongside the US Dollar which is also incredibly historical.
Now, Jerome Powell could've simply pumped the market before a giant sell-off on this asset again but before this said "giant sell-off" there has to be a retest of certain pivotal price points such as 1900 and 1920 and we can also expect the asset to rise to possible 1970 to 1998-2000 before they decide to liquidate this asset and as well as meeting "big time" take-profit points on the chart while hunting down minor stop-loss marks. Keeping in mind that macroeconomic factors are a becoming a big deal for Gold due to the conversion of these assets into currencies we can definitely expect the United States to grab hold of this "milkshake" and try to profit from all of this "global crisis" around the dollar. Let's remember that the US Dollar WILL reach incredible highs and we can expect a possible WAR scenario within countries over financial instability.
I suggest to either wait for XAU to get past the 1883 price range to place your entire BULLISH positions or allow for gold to 1823 which is clearly a swing range for this asset.
Trade safe and always remember, these are only numbers.
Trade active:
Partial LONG placed at 1874
TP - 1885
Timeframe: H4
TP - 1885
Timeframe: H4
Trade active:
TP moved to 1900
SL set at 1864
SL set at 1864