JackBlackwell Updated   
OANDA:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Spot gold continued to show an adjustment trend this week due to factors such as profit-taking by bulls and the dissipation of geopolitical risks. The market price continued to fall, reaching the lowest level of 2277.18. Although the closely watched non-agricultural data was bullish for gold, the boost to gold's performance was limited. The price of gold shot up to 2320 and then fell back, finally closing at around 2300. The weekly line once again showed a negative line, and the trend continued to adjust.

Judging from the weekly rhythm, the rising wave that started at $1,810 continued to maintain the rhythm of three positives and one adjustment until it approached the $2,400 mark, forming a short squeeze and rising, with five consecutive positives. However, after the consecutive positives, the adjustment pattern cycle did not change. The correction began with five consecutive positives at the high of $2,431, followed by double negatives. Therefore, we may expect a positive line next week.

In the short term, on the four-hour market, the obvious pressure position is at the 2400 integer mark. Although it hit the 2400 mark many times, it failed to form an effective breakthrough. Instead, there was a downward adjustment, that is, it stepped back to accumulate strength. If 2400 to 2292 is regarded as the first wave downward revision, then 2252 to 2282 can be regarded as the third wave downward revision. According to the characteristics of the correction wave, with 2327 as the high point and combined with the double bottom position of 2267, there is a high probability that the correction low point will be completed at the 2267 line.

In terms of specific operations, the third wave downward revision has not yet ended. It is recommended to go short at a high level next week and then consider going long after the price retreats to $2267. At the beginning of the week, focus on the suppression of 2310. At the bottom, focus on the 2292, 2282 and 2267 positions. Pay special attention to the opportunity of the 2267 line touching, so as to launch a backhand multi-order layout, and around the completion of the correction, we are optimistic about the return of the bulls.

On the whole, gold's short-term operation next week will mainly focus on callback long orders, supplemented by rebound short orders. The top focus will be on the 2308-2310 resistance range, and the bottom focus will be on the 2265-2267 support range.
Next week, the U.S. economy will not release any important data that could have a significant impact on gold valuations. Market participants will keep a close eye on China's trade balance data on Thursday. If China's trade surplus widens more than expected in April and investors assess it as a positive development for gold demand prospects, the initial market reaction could help gold prices move higher. Market participants will also be closely watching comments from Fed officials next week. The chance that the Fed will adjust policy in September remains slightly above 50%, according to data from the CME Fed Watch Tool. Market positioning suggests the dollar could face selling pressure if Fed policymakers leave the door open to a rate cut in September.

On the other hand, if Fed officials favor a rate cut closer to the end of the year, the U.S. dollar may hold its ground, making it difficult for gold to gain traction. However, policymakers still have several inflation and employment data to assess before September, and they may not send any clear signals on the timing of a policy shift. The market will also see appearances from several regional Fed presidents. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will speak in New York; Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak at an event in South Carolina; New York Fed President Williams will speak at a conference in California Deliver speeches; Fed Governor Cook will speak in Washington, D.C., and Chicago Fed President Goolsby will speak at the Economic Club of Minnesota.
Gold Trading Strategies Reference
🎯Strategy 1: Go short when gold rebounds to around 2308-2310, stop loss 6 points, target around 2290-2275, break the position and look at the 2265 line✅
🎯Strategy 2: Go long when gold pulls back to around 2265-2267, stop loss by 6 points, target around 2280-2290, and look at the 2300 line if the position is broken✅
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Gold Trading Strategies Reference

🎯Strategy 1: Go short when gold rebounds to around 2328-2330, stop loss 6 points, target around 2320-2310, break the position and look at the 2300 line✅

🎯Strategy 2: Go long when gold pulls back to around 2290-2292, stop loss by 6 points, target around 2310-2320, and look at the 2330 line if the position is broken✅

Market trends may undergo major changes at any time. Investors, please place orders with caution and manage account funds and positions reasonably. If you still have orders in hand and don’t know how to deal with them, or want to obtain real-time trading strategies, you can contact me at any time. t.me/Captain_Jack78
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