XAU/USD, It's my analysis not a forecast. I am a keen learner, not an Expert. Analysis done on 20.01.2024.
Weekly Time Frame:
On 25th December, 2023 Gold made a nice trend reversing Shooting Star Candle at the Weekly Resistance Level of 2070 - 2082. After that Gold is on Weekly Down Trend for the last three weeks. However, in the last week the area at 2004 showed some Support for Gold on Weekly Time Frame, but it was just an Order Block which was taken and the price moved up. The next support in Weekly Trend after minor 2004 lies at 1915 - 1930. The price in Weekly Time Frame is trading above 50, 100 & 200 EMA at 1950, 1898 & 1806 respectively.
Daily Time Frame:
Gold in a down run got rejected on 17.01.24 at the Daily Support at 2009.42 following on the next day 18.01.24 formed a strong Trend Reversing Bullish candle (Maribozu White) at the same Support Level. Consequently, the last day of the last week was found to be Bullish & we got the closing in 2029. There is an Order Block (Sell Side) which lies at the 2045 - 2055 range which needs to be mitigated in the Daily Time Frame. Daily Time Frame is trading just above 50 EMA (2017), 100 EMA (1990) & 200 EMA (1957).
4H Time Frame:
4H Time Frame, Price is moving up. There was a fresh OB resting at 2025 which was mitigated due to news coming in DXY favor last weekend. But the price couldn't move down this level and gave a closing at 2029. This implies a sign that the price will move up from 2029 level to 2045 - 2055 level. OTE for Sell Entry lies at 2045 - 2047 level in 4H Time Frame, which is almost the same level of Bearish OB in Daily Time Frame. 4H Time Frame is just trading at 50 EMA and 200 EMA level at 2030 & 2029 respectively.
DXY Index:
On Weekly Time Frame DXY Index got a strong Bullish Engulfing Trend reversal candle at Support level of 99.548, following which DXY is in uptrend from the last three weeks.
On Daily Time Frame it got a reversal from Resistance at 103.590 and DXY index came down which pushed XAU price higher again. However, a big imbalance and a gap up opening (ranging from 102.547 to 103.162) lies just below the price, where right now DXY Index is hovering.
This indicates that upon next week DXY index may move down to fill the Gap and then may move up again to continue its Weekly Bullish Trend.
What do I Expect from the XAU/USD pair?
XAU/USD may move up from 2029 to the area ranging from 2045 -2055. This area as I indicated above is the OTE in 4H & OB in Daily. From this range we can find Sell on confirmation as XAU/USD pair is weekly in downtrend after getting rejection at resistance as indicated above.
DXY Index may move vice versa as it will come down to fill the Gap below and will continue its Weekly Bullish Trend.
Weekly Time Frame:
On 25th December, 2023 Gold made a nice trend reversing Shooting Star Candle at the Weekly Resistance Level of 2070 - 2082. After that Gold is on Weekly Down Trend for the last three weeks. However, in the last week the area at 2004 showed some Support for Gold on Weekly Time Frame, but it was just an Order Block which was taken and the price moved up. The next support in Weekly Trend after minor 2004 lies at 1915 - 1930. The price in Weekly Time Frame is trading above 50, 100 & 200 EMA at 1950, 1898 & 1806 respectively.
Daily Time Frame:
Gold in a down run got rejected on 17.01.24 at the Daily Support at 2009.42 following on the next day 18.01.24 formed a strong Trend Reversing Bullish candle (Maribozu White) at the same Support Level. Consequently, the last day of the last week was found to be Bullish & we got the closing in 2029. There is an Order Block (Sell Side) which lies at the 2045 - 2055 range which needs to be mitigated in the Daily Time Frame. Daily Time Frame is trading just above 50 EMA (2017), 100 EMA (1990) & 200 EMA (1957).
4H Time Frame:
4H Time Frame, Price is moving up. There was a fresh OB resting at 2025 which was mitigated due to news coming in DXY favor last weekend. But the price couldn't move down this level and gave a closing at 2029. This implies a sign that the price will move up from 2029 level to 2045 - 2055 level. OTE for Sell Entry lies at 2045 - 2047 level in 4H Time Frame, which is almost the same level of Bearish OB in Daily Time Frame. 4H Time Frame is just trading at 50 EMA and 200 EMA level at 2030 & 2029 respectively.
DXY Index:
On Weekly Time Frame DXY Index got a strong Bullish Engulfing Trend reversal candle at Support level of 99.548, following which DXY is in uptrend from the last three weeks.
On Daily Time Frame it got a reversal from Resistance at 103.590 and DXY index came down which pushed XAU price higher again. However, a big imbalance and a gap up opening (ranging from 102.547 to 103.162) lies just below the price, where right now DXY Index is hovering.
This indicates that upon next week DXY index may move down to fill the Gap and then may move up again to continue its Weekly Bullish Trend.
What do I Expect from the XAU/USD pair?
XAU/USD may move up from 2029 to the area ranging from 2045 -2055. This area as I indicated above is the OTE in 4H & OB in Daily. From this range we can find Sell on confirmation as XAU/USD pair is weekly in downtrend after getting rejection at resistance as indicated above.
DXY Index may move vice versa as it will come down to fill the Gap below and will continue its Weekly Bullish Trend.