Doji-2k1

GOLD Forecast: Top-down analysis

FOREXCOM:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Key point to remember:
  • Traders are 85% Net Long, and 15% Net Short.

Monthly Chart

The price has been dropping for 5 months, forming a double top, which is a bearish reversal pattern that signals an upcoming 3 level trend. The trend will be fully confirmed once the price has bearish broke and retested the Monthly Neckline 3 together with the 50 and bearish crossed short-term moving averages. That will not only signal to us an upcoming a 3 level trend but also a drop to the 200 moving average and ascending trend line. On the other hand, the price might reverse into a bullish uptrend to the previous bullish head and shoulder patterns 3rd level. The price is currently running in its 2nd level. If the price bearish bounces off the Monthly Neckline 3 and 50 moving averages with a bullish reversal pattern that leads the price to bullish break and retest its neckline or the Monthly Neckline together with bullish crossed short-term moving averages, that will trigger the bullish signal.

Weekly Chart

The price is currently running in the double tops 2nd level, below the bearish crossed short-term moving averages and in between the long-term moving averages. Having the price in the 2nd level, signals a possible bearish trend-continuation to the double tops 3rd level. That continuation will be fully confirmed once the price has dropped to bearish break and retest the Monthly Neckline 3. If the price bounces off the Weekly H&S Neckline with a bullish reversal candle pattern that leads the following candles to rally to break and retest the Weekly Neckline 3 together with the 8 moving average, that will dis-confirm the bearish bias but in prep to trigger a bullish signal.


As you can see from both chart images above, these timeframes are in sync. The monthly is in a bearish trend that's forming the double tops 2nd leg. The weekly is the one that has been and still is guiding the full formation of the monthly's double top with its double top trend. If the monthly bounces off triggers the bullish signal that will be confirmed by the weekly's 3rd level bullish reversal pattern or its bullish signal key level that I mentioned earlier. Furthermore, it both timeframes price and patterns form below the Monthly Neckline 3 and 50 moving average, the monthly will trigger is bearish trend signal that will be confirmed by the weekly's extended move after it has formed its level 3.

Daily Chart

The daily is currently running in the bearish half a bats 2nd level and below all the moving averages. Having the price in this zone, signals that there's still a probability for a bearish trend-continuation for the patterns 3rd level. That continuation will be confirmed by a bearish reversal candle close below the Mini Daily Half a Bat Neckline and 8 moving average. If the price rejects that signal, and bullish breaks and retests the signal key levels, that will trigger a bullish signal (as illustrated by the arrows).


As you can see from the daily and weekly chart images, they're also in sync (just like how the monthly and weekly are). Getting back to the weekly, we saw that the price has been dropping in the 2nd level; that drop was and still is guided by the daily's half a bat pattern. Not only the market maker patterns were the ones guiding the drop, but also the moving averages. The weekly 8 moving average forms part of the daily's 50 moving average. The bearish break and retest of both time frames moving averages plus the bounce we are waiting for on the daily 8 moving average with a bearish reversal candle pattern, will fully confirm the trend-continuation of all the time frames.

That's it for today. I hope you found value in this forecast. If you have a different concept in mind, feel free to share it in the comments section or (if you prefer) in private, I'd love to know your thoughts!

Stay Blessed,
Sphatrades.

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