NaughtyPines
Short

XAUUSD -- GOLD IN STEEP DECLINE; SHORT ON RETRACE

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
65 0 4
After testing 1300+ in early May, gold             has been in steep decline, one that has only seemingly hastened since its break of downward channel resistance (aquamarine channel) and the confluent Fib at about 1237. Today, it briefly broke 1200 psych resistance before modestly retaking that area.

The next long-term support is in the vicinity of 1190 area, followed by 1160, with overhead resistance at 1237, followed by 1280.

Trend (represented by the 8 and 34 EMA's) favors the downside, but we may be running into an area which disappointment abounds on larger time frames. Between mid-March and mid-May, the area between 1160 and 1230 was extremely choppy and/or consolidative before gold             collapsed in epic failure mode to below 1100.

Although the best short risk-reward setup has probably passed (4H 8/34 cross on 5/18, followed by break of support at 1260-ish), I would look to short on retrace (for example, on touch of the 34 EMA), assuming the 8/34 EMA downward trend on the 4H remains intact and consistent with these EMA's on the Daily, keeping your stop in "fairly close" (current 14 period Daily ATR is about 18 handles) with an eye to moving it to break even as soon as the opportunity presents itself.
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