The question is if price is ready to rally from here or they want the stops below 1200$.
There are a lot of stops. If we break below 1200$ price will drop immediately 10-15$ from there. If the banks want to run the stops they have to do it tonight or tomorrow night. Thursday Thanksgiving in the US, Friday is a shorter trading day. Banksters will not leave this market for the long weekend without their gold longs. They could easily get left behind without positions.
I've started to reopen my long positions last Friday. If we break below 1200$ we have 2 strong where the decline can stop:
1. Last years intermediate cycle high at 1189.65
2. And the Fibonacci 61,8% at 1171$
So I think if we break below 1200 $ the zone where I would like to add to my positions is between 1189 and 1171$. (Green ) As we are printing divergencies in , in every time frame I just don't want to risk that price bounces and I don't have position so I started to go long again.
If this is a market - I think it is - then this bounce should be a V-shaped reversal with a powerful short squeeze. It will just be the opposite what we had during the market when price dropped back to the ICL from the intermediate cycle highs.
With RSI leaving overbought and MACD turning up to cross over.
We broke down the 1200 level , but it's interesting that the breakdown was not so strong. Price is recovering .
We might have a failed breakdown today running everyone's stop .
The Fibonacci 61.8 retracement is holding the price . It's one of the longest daily cycle I have ever seen ...
It's enough close for me.
I'm quite convinced we bottomed today.
So, with this much risk and uncertainty will Gold go down to cost levels? (Average world all in cost seems to be 1200 USD. The South African miners are at around 1050 USD.). I doubt it.
As u must be noticing, the USD has broken the top of 2015 and it will continue to break into newer tops, is my belief.
No financial instrument goes in a Linear fashion up or down. Everything has local tops & bottoms.
What is impressive at present is that the PM`s and Miners are not reacting to the dollar strength as they should have done by falling, which means they are exhibiting a lot of positive strength and this might be a case where the PM`s can rally from present level ... say gold can go anywhere from the current level to anywhere around 1230 to 1250 but only to fall there after ...
My view is, if the rally in Gold is building up then I am a bit skeptical but will surely look to participate in full to Short the same around the levels mentioned above.
I think, I am conveying my views quite clearly with no ambiguities what so ever !
I certainly have full respect for your views presented here ... let time be the judge or rather ... guide !
I suspect we are a little oversold and will recover somewhat in the near term but the selling is not over yet. In this case we'll come back to these levels and then some. We may be seeing $1,140 to 1,120 before we start running again.
No offence but after that trade (which earned him a lot of reputation) the strategy he is following for gold is not helping him at all. Despite all the deep analysis of COT reports, price action, indicator divergences, fundamental analysis, US economy etc. It just keeps going down on and on...
You may call it manipulation, but I disagree. It is what it is, price is just goes down. And we simply can't explain why - which is where you lose money.
if it doesn't go your way then surely it is a manipulation, you back that up with a dodgy article found on the internet. very assuring indeed.
HAPPY TRADING TO EVERYONE!!
Hoping we will get a break out from this channel to the upside very soon....It was quite interesting session today in relation to gold..every time the price was trying to push higher ,it was immediately "suppressed" by bullion banks algo-robotic HFT trading desks,but we didnt see "an attack" in short session as some people predicted..which is,in my view,a positive sign..it seems ,they do not want to push the price lower at Comex casino..
And Jnug was "behaving" quite well through all session..i added at the close despite the fact that we may see some weakness on Monday..but Tuesday is a favourite day for bullion banks to initiate a new weekly game plan...im expecting a move to the upside next week..
Despite the dollar bull gold is holding quite well : new highs in dollar but gold is not below 1045...
Thanks for all your work Arpi. There's a very old saying from where i come from "Dogs will always bark while an elephant is walking...but the elephant doesnt change his course because of the barking". The real traders do understand you cannot be right 100% of the time, but atleast you stick your neck out "before" the chart plays out as it does. Not after. Keep up the good work!
It´s sad that we all always jump in way too early.. instead of waiting until the market presents us a signal like tonight/this morning.. yes you might be missing the first 10-15 bucks but you have the odds on your side and do not fight the trend anymore but play an obvious potential reversal pattern.. it´s all about clarity and patience!!!