chartwatchers
Long

GOLD - Getting ready

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
6655 110 77
11 days ago
If we look at gold's previous half year rally (1045 --->1375) as one cycle last Friday we printed the 50% pullback of that rally. We just tagged the 50% Fibonacci retracement on Friday. We might be ready and start the rally from here. Or we might break below 1200$ and reverse quickly from there.
The question is if price is ready to rally from here or they want the stops below 1200$.
There are a lot of stops. If we break below 1200$ price will drop immediately 10-15$ from there. If the banks want to run the stops they have to do it tonight or tomorrow night. Thursday Thanksgiving in the US, Friday is a shorter trading day. Banksters will not leave this market for the long weekend without their gold             longs. They could easily get left behind without positions.
I've started to reopen my long positions last Friday. If we break below 1200$ we have 2 strong support zone where the decline can stop:
1. Last years intermediate cycle high at 1189.65
2. And the Fibonacci 61,8% at 1171$

So I think if we break below 1200 $ the zone where I would like to add to my positions is between 1189 and 1171$. (Green rectangle) As we are printing divergencies in MACD , RSI in every time frame I just don't want to risk that price bounces and I don't have position so I started to go long again.

If this is a bull market - I think it is - then this bounce should be a V-shaped reversal with a powerful short squeeze. It will just be the opposite what we had during the bear market when price dropped back to the ICL from the intermediate cycle highs.

LONG ENTRY
11 days ago
Comment: Divergencies on the 4h chart
snapshot
10 days ago
Comment: Swing low in gold .
With RSI leaving overbought and MACD turning up to cross over.
snapshot
9 days ago
Comment: We might have bottomed today in gold.
We broke down the 1200 level , but it's interesting that the breakdown was not so strong. Price is recovering .
We might have a failed breakdown today running everyone's stop .
9 days ago
Comment: I have a feeling that noone left to sell gold....
a day ago
Comment: Today I closed all of my hedges at 1665-66$.
The Fibonacci 61.8 retracement is holding the price . It's one of the longest daily cycle I have ever seen ...
It's enough close for me.
a day ago
Comment: We are going to have a powerful short squeeze in gold tonight.
I'm quite convinced we bottomed today.
TPparadigma
11 days ago
Cruise the Metal.
+1 Reply
Bob.B.Perkins
11 days ago
Since gold topped out, it's been a downer for gold miner owners, which I have plenty of. On the way down, I've held my positions and made better entry points as I expect gold to recover to heights we have never seen before.
+3 Reply
Cuco67
11 days ago
I think that the current USD strength is not conducive to a rate hike by the FED. Why the USD is so strong is another story. I guess it is based on strong US economic data but the strength in the economic data is based on debt, which is currently about 14.3 trillion USD. Is the US riding on a bubble? The banks are obviously very much aware of this but they are too big to fail but are they? Will the FED save them again if the bubble bursts.

So, with this much risk and uncertainty will Gold go down to cost levels? (Average world all in cost seems to be 1200 USD. The South African miners are at around 1050 USD.). I doubt it.
+1 Reply
imfor2014 Cuco67
11 days ago
@Cuco67, 14.3 trillion USD ? Where are you living virtual world ? Check out http://www.usdebtclock.org/ - it's already hit more than 19.8 trillion USD. Obama print them fast. ~10 trillion before Obama and >19.8 at his end.
+1 Reply
Cuco67 imfor2014
11 days ago
@imfor2014, yes thanks for the info.
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Cuco67 imfor2014
11 days ago
@imfor2014, the figure that I had seems to be non-federal debt (owed to public entities), the rest is federal debt (intra governmental).http://www.justfacts.com/nationaldebt.asp#ownership
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imfor2014 Cuco67
11 days ago
@Cuco67, You there right. Still I don't think intragovernmental debt is "free dinner".
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Cuco67 imfor2014
11 days ago
@imfor2014, no it's not free dinner.
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AL_G imfor2014
9 hours ago
@imfor2014, what did he accomplish with 10 trillion $$ hmmmm nothing...
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MichaelMorgan Cuco67
10 days ago
@Cuco67, just curious if you had the same opinion last November (in 2015), right before the rate hike in December? In my opinion, everything seems to be shaping up for a rate hike, similar pattern to last year.
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Cuco67 MichaelMorgan
10 days ago
@MichaelMorgan, I think that the USD will drop considerably in the next 3 weeks and the FED will increase the rates.
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shawn.ctech
11 days ago
Ok, here is a clue for you to know if we go below $1200 or bounce from here. This week the treasury auctions total $88 Billion, do you think the Japanese, pension funds, MMs, retired people that are starving for yield wont be jumping on our over sold bond market?
+1 Reply
toothless shawn.ctech
10 days ago
@shawn.ctech, meaning? Can you continue?
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shawn.ctech toothless
10 days ago
@toothless, Sure. Due to the fact that the rest of the world is behind our monetary policy, they are in a state of negative yields since they are aggressively purchasing their own bonds. This creates and opportunity for sovereign debt funds to buy our bonds at a much better rate. That will lower the rates and puts pressure on the Dollar, which increases Gold and Silver. you have to realize as far as valuations, markets have gotten way ahead of themselves, stocks are over valued, bonds are oversold, and the divergence that the Dollar has created will put extra pressure on U.S GDP showing up next year. So Dollar will consolidate, until year end, then after a handcuff fed announces a hike Dollar will resume its advance for a short period of time until reality kicks in that whatever Trump spends will not show up until 2019-2020. I hope this helps. So buy Gold and Silver and hold for a nice ride for the next few years.
+1 Reply
toothless shawn.ctech
10 days ago
@shawn.ctech, Thank you for taking the time to explain!
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chinoo
10 days ago
Hi Arpi,

As u must be noticing, the USD has broken the top of 2015 and it will continue to break into newer tops, is my belief.
No financial instrument goes in a Linear fashion up or down. Everything has local tops & bottoms.

What is impressive at present is that the PM`s and Miners are not reacting to the dollar strength as they should have done by falling, which means they are exhibiting a lot of positive strength and this might be a case where the PM`s can rally from present level ... say gold can go anywhere from the current level to anywhere around 1230 to 1250 but only to fall there after ...

My view is, if the rally in Gold is building up then I am a bit skeptical but will surely look to participate in full to Short the same around the levels mentioned above.

I think, I am conveying my views quite clearly with no ambiguities what so ever !
I certainly have full respect for your views presented here ... let time be the judge or rather ... guide !
+3 Reply
Excellent idea greet
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Notyour
10 days ago
Guys what do u think about? http://www.marketwatch.com/story/potential-gold-import-ban-by-india-could-be-biggest-bombshell-since-nixon-2016-11-22?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
+1 Reply
bertcoin PRO Notyour
9 days ago
@Notyour, Wow - saw that parroted on a number of reputable sites as well. Add reality to rumor - the capital flows out of US bonds, EU and JPN toward the US and equities are hurting commodity prices. IMHO, may have a way to go to find the gold bottom. I see purely technical traders targeting 1120 and even below 1000 in early 2017. I'm waiting for the dust to settle a little.
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Notyour bertcoin
9 days ago
@bertcoin, Donald wants to print a lot of new debt. Inflation should start rising. Id be surprised to see Gold at $1000
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bertcoin PRO Notyour
9 days ago
@Notyour, IMHO, We are in a global deflationary cycle. With zero interest rates for years, over 10 trillion in printing in the US alone, not to mention EU/ECB, inflation is still nil. The Donald can't top that in 8 years. Only economic recovery will have a chance to make anything inflationary. That won't happen before early 2017 where I see these minds thinking $1000. Ships can't turn that fast no matter what his policies will be.
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Notyour bertcoin
8 days ago
@bertcoin, Can be. Frankly speaking I dont trade with a > 2weeks view anymore. (
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bertcoin PRO Notyour
8 days ago
@Notyour, +1 Agreed on that with commodities in these crazy times!!
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Ronnee Notyour
8 days ago
@Notyour, everybody here should be reading this!!
+1 Reply
kidbroge
9 days ago
Got an email from my broker giving clients a heads up this week regarding Gold. It stated Gold has a strong seasonal tendency to go up during the week of Thanksgiving although since 2012 it hasn't. The upshot was this year might be different. Closes above 1220 will peak my interest.
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hasansahoglu kidbroge
9 days ago
@kidbroge, Don't listen to your broker, he wants you to be broke (no pun intended)
+1 Reply
kidbroge hasansahoglu
9 days ago
@hasansahoglu, just got back from work and holy shit yet another dive. How can one think long now. Gold is now Pyrite. The Trump effect stocks to the moon, gold to the toilet.
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bertcoin PRO
9 days ago
Hitting green box number 1....
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Nightstar
9 days ago
Isn't Gold suppose to 'make our Account great again' Arpi? Lol :)
+1 Reply
saif12 PRO Nightstar
9 days ago
@Nightstar, Man Save any remaining Money in your account. Gold is going to touch 900 before any real pull. Again, this is a penny advice, you do not need to take it, but at least go through your analysis.
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shero
9 days ago
We still have NFP event and rate hike event and other USD events that may push it down ... I hope we don't see it below 1140
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Francis12345b
9 days ago
Gold sub $1000 very soon. Sell the pullbacks but don't think this is a bull market just yet haha.
I might buy at 8-900/oz
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hasansahoglu Francis12345b
9 days ago
@Francis12345b, I ain't buying a thing until I see 1130 minimum, if not lower.
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watsonzou26
9 days ago
"I have a feeling that nobody left to sell gold". Wow, Arpi, that's not a professional trader should say/think like that.
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USSRandolph watsonzou26
9 days ago
@watsonzou26, my thoughts exactly. There's always someone left to sell as long as there's someone left who owns it.
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Staxs USSRandolph
8 days ago
@USSRandolph, Its a figure of speech dumb arse.
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Staxs USSRandolph
8 days ago
@USSRandolph, Its a figure of speech ffs..... wake up.
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VirtualFax
9 days ago
"No one left to sell", even when there is no one left to sell here is always a possibility of a bank to dumping another 25,000 of paper gold to suppress the price if it's in major powers political of economical interests.

I suspect we are a little oversold and will recover somewhat in the near term but the selling is not over yet. In this case we'll come back to these levels and then some. We may be seeing $1,140 to 1,120 before we start running again.
+2 Reply
VirtualFax VirtualFax
9 days ago
I, obviously, meant "25,000 contracts of paper gold"
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Nightstar VirtualFax
9 days ago
@VirtualFax Agree.. this is no longer about supply and demand or whatever fundamentals all of you goombas are following, Lol! This is straight up manipulation __ period. It's political. And they can keep Gold suppressed and/or range bound for as long as they want. My stance on the Gold Bull is unfortunately starting to change.. I would be very pleasantly surprised if Gold was allowed to reach $1500 by next Spring :/ The times are changin' kiddos! Be ready to adapt.. or die.
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ja.piotr.bor Nightstar
8 days ago
@Nightstar, It will do that, when you are losing the faith...
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Nightstar ja.piotr.bor
8 days ago
@ja.piotr.bor It's not about faith or lack thereof.. it's about recognizing manipulation to satiate a Political agenda :)
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hasansahoglu Nightstar
8 days ago
@Nightstar, that's not manipulation btw, its all in the game. gold had never been as easy as buyer/seller balance. This is the most difficult commodity to trade on. Oil, wheat, sugar, iron, copper you can say there is a supply/demand. But with gold, you have absolutely no clue what will happen next.
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Nightstar hasansahoglu
8 days ago
@hasansahoglu I respectfully disagree :)
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hasansahoglu Nightstar
8 days ago
I don't know really. Arpi was right once about the bear trap idea, back when the gold went down to 1303 and shot up to 1340. But now looking at the bigger picture and what happened since that trade until today. I begin to feel like it was just luck.

No offence but after that trade (which earned him a lot of reputation) the strategy he is following for gold is not helping him at all. Despite all the deep analysis of COT reports, price action, indicator divergences, fundamental analysis, US economy etc. It just keeps going down on and on...

You may call it manipulation, but I disagree. It is what it is, price is just goes down. And we simply can't explain why - which is where you lose money.

Best
H
+2 Reply
Nightstar hasansahoglu
8 days ago
@hasansahoglu There are numerous articles on the internet that have been written about it, including the one below. There are tons of paper Gold dumps on the Comex that are intentional and co-ordinated by the big banks. This is nothing new my friend ___ Open your eyes and smell the roses!

http://kingworldnews.com/andrew-maguire-a-staggering-1000-tonnes-of-paper-gold-rinsed-out-of-the-market-today/
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hasansahoglu Nightstar
7 days ago
@Nightstar, price is 1176 as I write this, so this is still manipulation then? are 'you' smelling the roses? :) ROFL

if it doesn't go your way then surely it is a manipulation, you back that up with a dodgy article found on the internet. very assuring indeed.

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saif12 PRO
9 days ago
I am afraid your feeling will not help. as GOLD is not only going to the drain, it is going to south pole. I was expecting 1100 few weeks ago, but now Look for 900-950 by Mid February 2007.
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USSRandolph saif12
8 days ago
@saif12, wasn't that long ago gold was said to "1375 very soon." Just goes to show no matter how good someone is at reading charts and TA, if someone with power wants gold to be in a different direction, that's the way it will be... No matter what. To be Honest, that's why I'm not trading Gold... Way too many factors present to effect price... Way too many. Oil, yes; stocks, yes; no more gold.
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Notyour USSRandolph
8 days ago
@USSRandolph, Wise words
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Staxs saif12
8 days ago
@saif12, Sweet, if that what you think is going to happen, support the claim with a chart and better still post evidence of your trade.
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saif12 PRO Staxs
8 days ago
Better read before write
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Staxs saif12
8 days ago
@saif12, I am so glad you have written what you have, then we can hold you to scrutiny too...... maybe you should consider what you write too.
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Current equity market hysteria is typical of dying days of an old bull...it is a last ,third phase of any bull market which may continue for short while...Bullion banks have not stopped their suppressing game and achieved maximum sentiment bearishness they wanted to achieve...We are bottoming and next leg would up and so quick that it would leave many traders on sidelines..like in february..GLD is down but not collapsing..most of hedge funds are holding there comparing to the mass exit we saw in 2013..personally,i would not short this market unless you are full time ,ultraday trader...with very tight stops..the reversal is imminent soon and like in feb-march..the future price of gold would be pushed up by bullion banks in order to initiate a new game plan for 2017 and to make more profit...personally,i view it as very rare buying opportunity and after selling all my positions in MREITs the day before yesterday..im massively adding to my position in JNUG...
HAPPY TRADING TO EVERYONE!!
+1 Reply
VirtualFax leonarddavidson60
8 days ago
@leonarddavidson60, Whether it's right or wrong but generally I'm of the same opinion. Though I believe adding leveraged ETFs might be a lil early just yet as I suspect there will still be more downward pressure on Gold before the recovery. Hence, there might be better than the Black Friday sale on JNUG in the coming days or weeks.
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leonarddavidson60 VirtualFax
7 days ago
@VirtualFax, we might touch the area around 6.00-6.10 again for a very short moment...but it is a very strong support zone..despite the fact that jnug is practically impossible to chart..and my calculations are based more on GDXJ behaviour than on JNUG itself..still, it is much safer ,lower risk bet than shorting this market..With sell off in bond markets,interest rate hike hysteria,and unsustained dollar upsurge ,we have already entered a very dangerous zone where "black swan" event can happen any day...personally,im not waiting if Jnug in todays short session drops more..i ll be adding more to ny position...
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VirtualFax leonarddavidson60
7 days ago
@leonarddavidson60, I totally understand the rationale behind people saying that derivatives, especially triple-X are not chartable. However, I personally completely disagree. As far as I'm concerned and with a reconciliation reference back to the underlying security, they are perfectly chartable. With a discount to their volatile nature and decay, I see nothing wrong in anticipating entry/exit points for JNUG/JDST, UGAZ/DGAZ, LABU/LABD and even TVIX. What's wrong with the chart below for example (other than being overly busy painted by the author :)?

snapshot

+1 Reply
leonarddavidson60 VirtualFax
6 days ago
@VirtualFax, looks like a good chart..congrats!
Hoping we will get a break out from this channel to the upside very soon....It was quite interesting session today in relation to gold..every time the price was trying to push higher ,it was immediately "suppressed" by bullion banks algo-robotic HFT trading desks,but we didnt see "an attack" in short session as some people predicted..which is,in my view,a positive sign..it seems ,they do not want to push the price lower at Comex casino..
And Jnug was "behaving" quite well through all session..i added at the close despite the fact that we may see some weakness on Monday..but Tuesday is a favourite day for bullion banks to initiate a new weekly game plan...im expecting a move to the upside next week..
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chartwatchers PRO leonarddavidson60
7 days ago
@leonarddavidson60, Like your thoughts.
Despite the dollar bull gold is holding quite well : new highs in dollar but gold is not below 1045...
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leonarddavidson60 chartwatchers
7 days ago
@chartwatchers, thanks for your reply and your fantastic work..we greatly appreciate it..in relation to 1045...i dont think we would get near that level..there were lots of circumstances which pushed the price to that level..they are absent now..and even if gold may go a bit lower to 1170 levels..which is the most bearish scenario..hedge funds would not be selling in panic their portfolios in GLD ,GDX and major miners like last time.. perfectly aware that reversal is imminent and gold hedging is probably the best insurance against coming sell offs in equity market and absolutely unsustainable dollar....despite the fact that publicly they do not admit it as yet..
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MrRick
8 days ago
Relax, I think gold is doing just fine. If your on the right side of the fence. April said before that he was not a short term or day trader. No one knows exactly when the ups and downs are coming. you may have to sit on it a bit longer. Thanks April. Keep it up. it's entertaining. What do I do with all this dry powder?
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Nightstar MrRick
8 days ago
@MrRick, Dude.. it's ARPI! NOT APRIL hahaaa Get it right already :)
+1 Reply
MrRick Nightstar
7 days ago
@Nightstar, No way dude
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MrRick Nightstar
7 days ago
@Nightstar, I can tell by your comments that your a negative person. I'm not. I've been reading Mr. Árpád Kerényi input since the month of April, which is a beautiful month here in California. So I call him April. Close enough and with no offense intended. Just friendly conversation with other traders around the world for if it weren't for TradingView I wouldn't have the chance to share this common interest. I'm trying to make money and I feel a humor and a positive environment will help with the ups and downs of this difficult profession. I can see we have different opinions but it's all good. So no negative vibes please. Thanks
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Nightstar MrRick
7 days ago
@MrRick Yes, I'm a very negative person Lol :)
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webmiztriz PRO Nightstar
a day ago
@Nightstar, *and a smartass ;o)
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Nightstar webmiztriz
a day ago
@webmiztriz Bite me :)
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chartwatchers PRO MrRick
7 days ago
@MrRick, I would use some now at 1180 and the rest at 1170 the FIBO 61.8. Thats my line in the sand.
+1 Reply
nikkki
8 days ago
With all this downside talk about gold i can presume it is time for gold to start going up
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shero
8 days ago
"Everyone" said if Trump win gold will fly and stocks will fall as he will bring trade war, did it ?!!
now "Everyone" is repeating some market watch report talking about $1130 and another one about $850/oz,

The question is ... when in trading history ... "everyone" was right ?
+1 Reply
nikkki
8 days ago
Maybe investors are selling the rumour (interest rate hike) and will buy the reality in December??? Remember last December after interest rate hike gold went up.
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO nikkki
7 days ago
@nikkki, they will hike in december now.
+1 Reply
mashru
8 days ago
Am so happy to see that so many people are giving up on gold and totally trashing it. Just like 2000 when people expected Nasdaq to touch 10,000 "anytime soon". Perfect indication that Arpi is right. "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful". Not something I have said. Maybe all the naysayers should reflect on that one a little more before posting comments without absolutely any analysis. My 8 year old can look at a chart backwards and give better comments than some of you are giving. If you really want to be a critic, prove it with charts and analysis of your own. If you cant, my "two bits" would be that you keep your comments to yourself...
Thanks for all your work Arpi. There's a very old saying from where i come from "Dogs will always bark while an elephant is walking...but the elephant doesnt change his course because of the barking". The real traders do understand you cannot be right 100% of the time, but atleast you stick your neck out "before" the chart plays out as it does. Not after. Keep up the good work!
+1 Reply
VirtualFax mashru
8 days ago
@mashru, I don't think people are giving up on Gold, at least not just yet. All that has been said here was that there's still room for downside before and if (never disregard "if" completely ) the run begins. "Buy the fear" talks are only good when they are also supported both fundamentally and technically. Otherwise, they'll remain what they are - simply talks.
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hasansahoglu mashru
7 days ago
@mashru, this is not about giving up. this is about not considering the downward scenario when making all those fancy analysis, being over confident - almost cocky - . And not taking the responsibility when the trade turns into shit. Simple
+1 Reply
AhmedKhattab
8 days ago
Arpi, I appreciate your effort, your thoughts are incredible.
why you didn't re-evaluate the market from a big picture, may be you see that's a bearish as the up trend was broken in the 4th of Oct 2016 and it's a down trend from July 2016.
I am waiting for your awesome reply.
Many thanks
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Looks like we finally got the reversal.. !!! Finally!! Gold should start a rally or at least a sizable bounce... very oversold, lots of divergences, sentiment depressive and CoT probably cleaned..

It´s sad that we all always jump in way too early.. instead of waiting until the market presents us a signal like tonight/this morning.. yes you might be missing the first 10-15 bucks but you have the odds on your side and do not fight the trend anymore but play an obvious potential reversal pattern.. it´s all about clarity and patience!!!
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haug01 PRO
7 days ago
I went short on DXY and long AUX an hour ago. Your work has been very helpful to me.
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AshYo
7 days ago
HI Arpi, any updates on this today?
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My outlook:
snapshot
+2 Reply
chinoo
3 days ago
Hi Guys,
Went Long on Gold 2nite @ 1187 level. This is for the record !
Further, bought NUGT @ 7,97 level ... also for the record :)
Let the Games begin ............ ha..
+1 Reply
WispyCrisp PRO chinoo
2 days ago
@chinoo, I loaded up on JNUG yesterday too
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hasansahoglu chinoo
2 days ago
@chinoo, ouch
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chinoo hasansahoglu
a day ago
@hasansahoglu, buying more of the same at CMP ( AU @ 1169 ) ... always buy when there is Sale in the Mkt and not otherwise :)
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hasansahoglu chinoo
a day ago
@chinoo, well good luck with that strategy my friend.
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chinoo hasansahoglu
19 hours ago
@hasansahoglu, .... ouch ...... now Gold @ 1177 ..... DXY .. @ 101.95 .....
soon ... time to call in profits ... :)
ohhhh ... ouch .....
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hasansahoglu chinoo
8 hours ago
@chinoo, sorry you were saying something? haha :)
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ja.piotr.bor
a day ago
I have bought also yesterday 1180 - was in nice plus for first. Today I just see this panic and was margin called. Wow, loss is a loss, but gold broke now a lot of supports, and is heading more down.
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This time, You've got to respect the market - stop being bullish if it aint
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chartwatchers PRO -Andrew-
a day ago
@-Andrew-, Me?
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-Andrew- PRO chartwatchers
8 hours ago
@chartwatchers, I am very interested in going long on GOLD but I will be waiting for an A class setup. This market must show me its going up. Right now, there are no valid signals for me to go long. NFP is tonight, perhaps we will see something after that? We have a 2-3 weeks still before the end of the year for the market to produce a solid eye catching setup. Catching the tops and bottoms is not my style. So there is still time to get in on a bullish move (if there is one).
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GOLD to 900. The commercials are getting the fck out of their longs even at these prices.
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do you mean you start going long for gold now?
because gold 1600 is a clear bottom for now. it sits on both short term and mid term TL. and both DXY AND USDCAD already show topping patterns.
only gold drops down 1600 will confirm the continuation of downtrend.
personal opinion only.
Thanks
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AshYo
a day ago
Hi, what does this mean to us <<Comment: Today I closed all of my hedges at 1665-66$.
The Fibonacci 61.8 retracement is holding the price . It's one of the longest daily cycle I have ever seen ...
It's enough close for me. >>

Does the above mean get out of long from here or it means we can go long from here?
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hasansahoglu AshYo
a day ago
@AshYo, he went long when it was 12XX, hoping that gold will fly after the election. Things turned sour and he had to hedge his positions. Now he is saying that he closed his hedges, believing that price will go up again.

If you ask me, no body have a clue whether the gold will go up or down. make your own mind up and don't listen to anyone here.

If you don't know what hedging means, then get out now before losing all your money
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO AshYo
a day ago
@AshYo, You can go long with a stop below 1160
+1 Reply