The gold monthly chart appears to be forming a classic cup and handle pattern. I expect a pullback that forms the handle.
Price action has been on a nice run since August 2018. Now, with a new all time high achieved today. I think the bulls can take a rest for a little while. The new higher high has confirmed a bull market. Long positions do not have to keep pushing for this to stay intact.
When volume comes in at the bottom it signifies institutional investors are loading up at the bottom. Volume seems to be highest at the top of this pattern, not the bottom. To me, this means smart money is taking profits at this point, while retail investors are getting FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out).
Now I'm seeing what looks like a blow off top on a sub wave 3 of 5 Elliot wave pattern. The bold orange line represents the macro Elliot wave pattern, while the thin blue line shows the sub waves.
Sub wave 5 should take gold up to about $2439. I'd expect a pull back to around $1920 at that point, but the Federal Reserve could squash that if they print enough $$$.
In short, it's time to start looking for a long term position in gold in the next 6 months. I think there is going to be another flight to USD in the near term as real estate and stocks crash again.
Price action has been on a nice run since August 2018. Now, with a new all time high achieved today. I think the bulls can take a rest for a little while. The new higher high has confirmed a bull market. Long positions do not have to keep pushing for this to stay intact.
When volume comes in at the bottom it signifies institutional investors are loading up at the bottom. Volume seems to be highest at the top of this pattern, not the bottom. To me, this means smart money is taking profits at this point, while retail investors are getting FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out).
Now I'm seeing what looks like a blow off top on a sub wave 3 of 5 Elliot wave pattern. The bold orange line represents the macro Elliot wave pattern, while the thin blue line shows the sub waves.
Sub wave 5 should take gold up to about $2439. I'd expect a pull back to around $1920 at that point, but the Federal Reserve could squash that if they print enough $$$.
In short, it's time to start looking for a long term position in gold in the next 6 months. I think there is going to be another flight to USD in the near term as real estate and stocks crash again.
Comment:
Yup, should be pretty much down from here, or at least very soon.
Comment:
I was doing some historical research to compare my trade idea w/ some weekly time frames from 2007 to 2011. I thought it was kind of fascinating how well it lines up with my previous gold call.
In 2008 when gold broke to new highs above $850 it took 10 weeks to top out again, then 31 weeks to break back down below $850 again, then another 10 weeks to finally bottom again. That's a bottom 41 weeks after breaking to new highs. This all preceeded the next big run up in gold that went 149 weeks and 180% up.
Currently gold has been above the 2011 high of $1920 for 6 weeks. I expect we will start to hear about a liquidity crises in the next month or so that will start to drive demand away from gold and into USD again. If you count 41 weeks from a break out over $1920, that put's us bottoming again right around mid May 2021.
This is an exact match up to my previous post for gold. Obviously nothing is set in stone yet, but I thought it was an interesting find worth sharing.
In 2008 when gold broke to new highs above $850 it took 10 weeks to top out again, then 31 weeks to break back down below $850 again, then another 10 weeks to finally bottom again. That's a bottom 41 weeks after breaking to new highs. This all preceeded the next big run up in gold that went 149 weeks and 180% up.
Currently gold has been above the 2011 high of $1920 for 6 weeks. I expect we will start to hear about a liquidity crises in the next month or so that will start to drive demand away from gold and into USD again. If you count 41 weeks from a break out over $1920, that put's us bottoming again right around mid May 2021.
This is an exact match up to my previous post for gold. Obviously nothing is set in stone yet, but I thought it was an interesting find worth sharing.