1. The Oldest Period of time to seek next lower, takes 1 year in Bear Market and ideally have ended in July 2014 (June 28, 2013 - June 28, 2014)
2. The Oldest Period of time to find the next lower, takes 2 years in Bull Market and ideally have ended in Sept 2014 (October 1, 2012 - Sept 30 2014), so I assume that the current price movement is a late cycle changes.
3. The Youngest has a smaller and shorter posture than The Oldest, giving the sense that The Youngest tend to appear at the end of the cycle changes, from bear to bull cycle.
4. In addition to providing information about the possible change in trend, The Youngest also provide information that achievement average of decline for The Oldest is 45% or around $1,170 and provide the information that the price is not likely to fall too far below the $1,180 Extremely Critical Support, which is closer to the achievement of The average decline of The Oldest ($1,170).
5. Some pullback that occurred a few days ago around $ 1,240 after the $ 1,240 damage, interpret that the meeting point between The Oldest and The Youngest estimated around $1,195/92, where this point is the last possibility change in trend will occur.
And lastly, I am trying to measure the distance from the lowest price and the highest of bull and bear markets using the Golden Ratio approach to support the information provided by The Youngest, which is based approach to the Golden Ratio, it seems each one has a ratio approaching 1.62 (you can see at the picture above), the calculation are as follows :
BULL MARKET GOLDEN RATIO
Distance 1 = $1032.70 High 2008 - $251.92 Low 1999 = $780.8
Distance 2 = $1920.80 High 2011 - $682.41 Low 2008 = $1238.39
Golden Ratio = $1238 : $781 = 1.6 approaching to 1.62
BEAR MARKET GOLDEN RATIO
Distance 1 = $1920.80 High 2011 - $1522.84 Low 2012 = $398
Distance 2 = $1795.80 High 2012 - $1178.86 Low 2013 = $616.94
Golden Ratio = $398 : $617 = 1.6 approaching to 1.62
Is this analysis correct or wrong ? I think at least there is one approach that underlies this analysis.
From The Desk Of A Newbie