Gold, Long Term Picture, Part 2

In my previous analysis i gave a nice guideline on Gold', showing a potential drop if that triangle fight would be lost. Eventually we saw a big drop happen, going faster than i initially expected. Something from my previous analysis when we were at the 1315ish support:

So a break of the triangle and the channel now. At the moment at a big support zone . If that holds, we could see that red line play out on the right. If it breaks, we could see it drop straight to 1290/1300 even. I will be waiting to short it as the red line suggest if we go up here, or long after a bigger drop


Now it seems we have reached a potential low. If we see a good break of 1290ish coming hours, it will probably be a confirmation. Also creating a reversal on the daily candle. But for a real one, we should see it get higher than just 1290, need a bit more conviction. If we do get towards the 1310 zone, we could see some resistance again. Since on the bigger picture, the drop happened fast and a rally towards the 1350 within 2 weeks would be too fast as well, i think a realistic scenario would be a move up to 1310ish, than maybe test 1290 again before going up. But taking things step by step, trying to spot signs of weakness and strength. Long term thought, read my previous analysis.



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Previous analysis:

Comment:

When zooming in a bit, we can see a channel on the right. If that green support breaks, we could see it retest today's low. if that breaks, we might be headed for another drop. I see the 1270ish being a support area.
So for now, 1290 and 1285 seems to be the range to watch

Comment:

Update