goldenBear88
Short

Free Monthly Chart explanation / Once Included to my comments

OANDA:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
This is my free Monthly chart explanation besides my usual Daily comments. Gold didn’t broke the last barrier of #1,788.80 on Gold Spot prices, still didn't confirm the last upside wave towards the multi-Year Weekly Resistance Zone . Daily and Hourly charts turned Bearish again but based on the Weekly chart signals since May, it is safer to Buy after every red Weekly candle (those were on November #4, December #9 and January #13). The DX is on critical crossroads and should stay above #96.50 but that is likely to have little effect on Gold . Gold is now Technically equipped for an decline, but I cannot speculate when. Technically, both on Oscillators and Candlesticks , Gold should lose value with every Hourly candle minimum to #1,717.80, but Covid-19 Fundamental pressure is still visible. Trading against Fundamentals is dangerous game and I will approach with extreme care. Again, Gold should fall but Fundamentals again guides the markets so I will wait for situation is normalize and follow the Technical proper trend. However, if #1,777.80 breaks, I may add set of Sell orders for Intra-day Scalp. Gold is holding it’s ground on the Hourly 4 chart (Ranged E.U. opening and further session came as no Technical surprise) as the Price-action rallies, staying within Daily chart Rectangle but preserving the Bearish underlying trend. As long as Gold keep #1,788.80 intact, I give more probabilities to the downside - since Price-action failed to test Resistance and upper extension. The reason is the Neutral Intra-day trend on Stock markets (but Bullish Medium-term) and mixed values on Bond notes. The Price-action should soon connect with the Hourly 4 Support, which was a trend setter throughout June, and every time it didn’t succeed to hold, Gold dipped more than #27$ within #3 sessions. Personally, after weak Bullish session today, I still favor going Bearish on the Medium-term, but ideally I would want to see a Higher Low broken firmly to be more certain. Gold still didn’t stabilized Williams% Overbought levels. The Lower High Bull trap from #1,778.80 was almost delivered (#1,788.80 the Top at the moment) on a very strong Hourly 4 candle as the Channel Up attempted to bring last week’s Overbought levels to a balance. As I mentioned earlier, I have used this level to contemplate a re-Sell, based on the Technicals, but without any Medium-term profitable pattern (which I always look for), I still don’t doubt my outlook as I see no reason to enter it/not worth a risk still. Last week’s pullback was led by again on enormous Buying pressure from Fundamental side, which was visible from June #1. The week is now almost flat (-0.04%) but the Monthly candle should close near a respectable # -0.32%. This remains an undisputed Medium-term Bullish trend , but I doubt that it will last. Always consider the Medium-term trend when determining your positioning along with the highly correlated instruments ( DX and Stock markets, partly Bond notes). The Monthly candle however remains on a mere # -0.34% and below is a negative close, so practically the Bearish underlying trend is unchanged. The reason why I am heavily on Sell side is visible on my chart, since Gold always repeats it’s cycles, and once Covid factor is out the market, historic decline is ahead. There is a delicate balance of Gold's price ( Xau-Usd on my comments as always) with the volatility on the Stock markets and DX , and Bond notes (which are struggling to make a Bullish comeback). This is what is keeping Gold Neutral but on high levels relative to last week. All developments didn’t invalidated Gold’s underlying Bearish trend . If the Higher High zone breaks however, I will be looking at the very real possibility of a new #1,794.80 test, and by my estimation, there is no chances for that outlook to develop. Gold had certain upswing, but it always respects the underlying trend (which is Bearish ) - In other words; or choose Scalping range, or engage Medium-term Position (what I did). For now, only asset which keeps Gold ranged is Stock markets and constant Buying pressure from Covid-19 outbreak. I expect more Bearish Price-action as U.S. session approaches today, and #1,747.80 (downside extension for now) within #3 sessions if Support breaks. Daily and Weekly chart turned Bearish , which confirms my outlook and is worth waiting for Bearish leg.
My Telegram channel: https://t.me/goldenBear88

Professional market analyst and Financial consultant with over #8 Years experience. I specialize Gold market using specific proven mathematical models. I provide market insights and Professional guidance.

Comments

While your short term technical analysis is quite good you are ignoring the larger Macro drivers behind gold. These gears were in motion long before Covid. Money supply and interest rates look bullish for gold over the next few years. After that.... Who knows.
+5 Reply
goldenBear88 craigmjrange
@craigmjrange, Thank you for kind words and your input! Your Fundamental explanation is brilliant, but we cannot engage Buy and hold it for Years - what is crucial / is the Short-term. Gold is indeed Bullish, but cannot rise only. There is corrections and consolidations, and that is what I am after.
+1 Reply
ilanjaar craigmjrange
@craigmjrange GOLD is good for shorting. It's is not S&P that you need only buy a dip...
Reply
I guess the falling sequence will be elliott 12345 wave much more than abc corrective way but it is just a guess
+2 Reply
goldenBear88 Kaan_ARTAR
@Kaan_ARTAR, I used ABC corrective wave pattern just to explain my thoughts, not what the pattern usually points at. Excellent input!
+1 Reply
Brilliant...I just love this idea...I just started follow you..waiting for the trade to happen thank you...
+1 Reply
goldenBear88 similarZebra73776
@similarZebra73776, Many thanks for kind words and for following me!
Reply
I have been following you for a long time and have been wondering how your technical analysis looks like. I understand now, it’s amazing! Thank you and keep up the great work!
+1 Reply
goldenBear88 AuTrade21
@AuTrade21, Many thanks for kind words!
Reply
Nice ! Thanks for sharing
+1 Reply
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