🔥GOLD trend analysis for next Monday✅

JackBlackwell Updated   
OANDA:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Gold technical analysis
The overall market in April showed relative strength, rising from 2230 to 2430, setting a record high. The current price is hovering around 2330 and is expected to remain near 2330 at the monthly close, which is the 50% level of the rally. Therefore, the trend in May is likely to rise first and then fall, continuing the rise and then retreating. It may remain strong for a while in the first half of May, but may weaken and fall by mid or late May. Therefore, we should pay attention to the timing of long and short positions.

On the 4-hour chart, gold shows an obvious upward shock trend. The price gradually broke away from the previous low shock range, and the K line rose steadily along the short-term moving average, indicating that the short-term upward trend may not be over yet. However, the price currently encounters a significant pressure zone near 2354, which may pose a challenge to further gains. It is necessary to pay close attention to the short-term adjustment and repair situation and find a suitable entry point.

From a short-term perspective, the golden hourly chart shows an upward trend. Each moving average indicator on the 1-4 hourly chart extends upward, and the support moves upward again. The support next Monday is around 2320-2325, and the pullback is an opportunity to go long. If it breaks through 2352, we need to pay attention to gold bulls' upward test of pressure near 2363. At the same time, we also need to focus on whether gold will step back, especially if it steps back to the 2320 line, which will be the key point for long orders to enter.

When the market opens on Monday, gold can go long directly, with reference to the 2330 line. The upward trend can be seen to 2350, and may reach the 2360 line after stabilization. When entering the market, you should focus on light positions. If there is a breakthrough to a new high next week, you should be ready to buy long positions at any time.

On the whole, it is recommended that the short-term operation of gold next week will be mainly longs on callbacks, supplemented by shorts on rebounds. Focus on the resistance range of 2352-2360 at the top and the support range of 2320-2325 at the bottom.
Gold Fundamental Analysis
The gold market is likely to face higher volatility next Monday as the Federal Reserve is expected to signal it will not be ready to cut interest rates before the summer. The move could lead to profit-taking by investors, especially given that the central bank is unlikely to initiate an easing cycle before the 2024 U.S. election. While this stance is negative for gold, some analysts noted that many investors are still holding on to solid gains.

The latest economic data suggests the U.S. economy may be entering a period of stagflation, which will have investors paying close attention to next week's data, including government employment data for April. If job growth is weak and wage gains disappoint, it will paint a clearer picture of stagflation, which could push gold prices out of their current consolidation. Although U.S. economic data and interest rates will bring short-term volatility to the gold market, the correction of gold prices from historical highs will be relatively small.

In addition to economic data, other factors are also supporting gold prices, such as the U.S. government's growing debt and deficit. As U.S. Treasury yields rise, investors are increasingly worried about inflation and a potential debt crisis. In this environment, central banks will continue to limit exposure to the dollar and U.S. debt, which may support gold prices.

The April employment report will be released on Friday. If the increase in U.S. non-farm payrolls declines significantly, it may trigger a sell-off in the U.S. dollar and lead to an immediate reaction in gold prices. Conversely, a stronger-than-expected increase in non-farm payrolls data could heighten expectations of no action by the Fed in September and trigger a sharp decline in gold prices by the end of next week.

Taken together, the gold market next Monday may be affected by many factors, including Fed policy hints, economic data performance, and the global economic and geopolitical situation. Investors need to pay close attention to these factors and formulate trading strategies carefully.
Gold Trading Strategies Reference

🎯Strategy 1: Go short when gold rebounds to around 2352-2355, stop loss 6 points, target around 2340-2335, break the position and look at the 2330 line✅

🎯Strategy 2: Go long when gold pulls back to around 2326-2328, stop loss by 6 points, target around 2340-2345, and look at the 2355 line if the position is broken✅
As a safe-haven asset, gold shows its unique value when the market is volatile. However, its price is affected by a variety of factors, including global economic conditions, geopolitical tensions, changes in monetary policy, etc. Therefore, as a gold investor, you need to remain sensitive to these factors and adjust your investment strategy at any time.

First, it is crucial to understand the impact of the global economic environment on gold prices. Slowing economic growth, rising inflation or financial market turmoil typically push gold prices higher as investors seek safe havens. Therefore, it is crucial for your investment decisions to pay close attention to economic data, policy changes and international trade situations in various countries.

Secondly, geopolitical risks are also an important factor affecting gold prices. Regional conflicts, trade wars, terrorism and other events may trigger investors' hedging demand for risky assets, thereby pushing up the price of gold. Therefore, keeping abreast of the global geopolitical situation and assessing its impact on market sentiment is crucial to seizing gold investment opportunities.

Finally, changes in monetary policy will also directly affect the price of gold. The central bank's interest rate decisions, money supply controls and exchange rate fluctuations may have a significant impact on the gold market. Therefore, paying close attention to the policy trends of central banks and the evolution of monetary policies is crucial to formulating your gold investment strategy.

As a gold investor, you need to remain vigilant and adjust your investment strategy at any time to respond to changing market conditions. Carefully evaluate the impact of global economic, geopolitical and monetary policies, adhere to risk management principles, and believe that you will be able to obtain long-term and stable investment returns in the gold market.

Good luck with your investment!
The current market is still defined as a correction. In addition, the weaker the rebound, the greater the opportunity for shorting. Therefore, you can directly follow up the short position in the morning market. Enter directly at the 2336 line. Pay attention to the 2320 and 2312 support positions below.

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