XAUUSD Gold Report for the Investors: April 01-05

Warning: This article is the "ultra shortened" version of our Gold Report prepared for our investors. Intraday traders may not get any benefit of this article.

Gold has been trading in a Bear Market since 2013. The weekly chart is quite clear for the one who knows how to read a technical chart

WEEKLY CHART


XAUUSD needs to make a weekly closing above $1.370 in order to speak about a “Bull Market” What do we need to see Gold prices above $1.370?

Safe Haven Demand ( Global Crisis, Uncertainties etc )
Strong Physical Demand
Negative Dollar interest ( High inflation or FED Rate Cut minimum 150 Base Points – Please note that the market is currently pricing 42% probability of one rate cut in 2020 – Bloomberg )

So under the current fundamental conditions, I do not see any reason for Gold to enter a Bull Market.

Gold Bulls ( I was one of them) made several attempts to break $ 1.370 resistance several last five years. Every breakout attempt was failed.

The rising trendline has been broken at $1.269 in June 2018. And the broken line has been retested a few weeks ago. However, XAUUSD failed to close above $1.328 and moved down below $1.300.

When looking at the chart, we can see an emerging Inverse Head And Shoulders pattern. The left shoulder resides in $1.247 where it meets SAM 200 Daily Chart and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of CD move as seen on the below Daily Chart.

Our latest main trade started selling gold at $1.347, $1.328 and $1.308 ( Bearish Flag). XAUUSD ended the week below EMA 50 on Daily Chart.

The measured move target of the Flag Pattern is $1.247 and it meets SMA200. ( I m not telling that the price will drop towards $1.247 but trying to read the charts )

$1.277 remains as the key support where it meets SMA100 on the Daily Chart. A potential breakout of $1.277 could accelerate the bearish move. However, we have strong support at $1.269 below $1.277. Why?

H4 CHART


After breaking 1.308 ( We added short there ) the price tested 1.286 which was our third target. Friday, I have published a bullish pattern with day trading purposes and we reached our targets as well. And we sold it in the trading room after better than expected Home Sales data. (

Even Brexit could not help Gold’s recovery on Friday which is proving that the Dollar is still the safe haven.

What’s next?

H4 Chart technical indicators readings are not positive for Gold near term. The price is below Ichimoku Cloud and the worse news is the Death Cross of EMA 50, 100 and 200. Until we see a firm closing above $1.312, we can not speak about a near term trend change from bearish to bullish.

1.277 is the key support. If the prices break below $1.277, we will focus on $ 1.268 where Gold Prices broke the rising trendline in 2018. A bullish three drives pattern would be completed at $1.268 which can be used as a buying opportunity.

If XAUUSD succeeds to close above $1.312, it is likely to re-test $1.330 – $1.340.

Summary: Unfortunately I am still bearish. I will be focusing on $1.277 support and $1.312 resistance. I will add short if the price breaks below $1.277 ( Targets 1269 1250 1244 ) and I will buy if it closes above $1.312 ( Targets 1318 1325 1330 1347 )

As usual :

Trading without technicals is like driving a car without brake
Trading without fundamentals is like driving a car in the dark with no headlights
Trading with emotions is "committing suicide"

Have a nice weekend !