botje11

Gold, Long Term Picture, Part 4

OANDA:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
In this analysis i will cover the lower time frames. From the first part of this long term analysis, we saw the price drop 40/50 points since that bear flag i showed broke. Previous analysis i showed a possible low that could bring us back up again, like the blue line on the right is showing.

Last update previous analysis:
At the resistance zone now, so chances increase now for a correction down again, like the blue line. Unless we see a squeeze straight through it. Moments like these, one could do a stop for maybe half or more at a break of that trend line on the left or that green support


Assuming the red zone won't break, i might adjust my view on the mid-term. First i thought we would see something like the blue line, so making a higher low if we see rejection from this resistance zone at 1310/15. But now i am thinking, there is even a good chance to see a lower low form, around 1270 even. If we drop from here and the 1290ish breaks, the 1270 would be a very realistic target and probably an even more ideal spot to get in again for the long term. My main reason for this though, since move like this would take more time than only a test of 1290, a bigger correction in time would fit the bigger picture much better.

These are just assumptions, but it's good to be prepared up front. On the left, we can see a possible H&S forming now, which could signal the start of that correction towards 1290ish. But if the neckline breaks, it can not get above it again.



Previous analysis:
Comment: Target of the H&S got overreached quite easily, so i think the chances for a bigger drop have increased. What i talked about above, a correction towards 1270, is what you can see on the right. So if the 1290ish breaks, i think we could see a move like that happen. For now, that looks like the ideal spot to get in for another mid-term move up.

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I see a h&s here at several TF you should check on that. Thanks for the analysis.
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Nardos7 G0ldenross
@G0ldenross, Agree. I see three possible H&S from 1D down to 15min
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