Mixed signals on Gold/Expecting #1,700.80 once Yields stabilize

Gold's general commentary: Gold almost reached my personal maximum of #1,735.80 as the Price-action didn’t invalidated Daily chart’s solid Channel Down and is now testing the Higher Low pressure point. However, #1,735.80 is very strong Resistance and I see no chances of Gold testing nor breaking it on today’s session (after such rise on early U.S. session last week), as Investors, after #4th in a row report announcement which missed their estimate, should draw capital from safe-have such as Gold, to more riskier assets - I doubt Gold has more potential to go Higher on Short-term. The current Buying accumulation pattern on Hourly 4 chart is now on total Neutrality but attempting to break towards last week’s Higher Low, DX is Neutral as well as the Bond notes are on Neutral candles. Current recovery on Gold goes against the continuous highs on Usd-Jpy, showing again that the underlying Short-term trend on Gold (Xau-Usd as always on my commentary) should be Bearish. Recent developments are Technically Bullish, but Fundamentally Bearish for Gold but I’ll not jump to engage new order since recent #42 point Overbought run provided the explanation that Swing movements are the new norm. Gold has potential to Gap downwards more than #22 points (if the current situation on the markets remain as it is) so ideal Selling order should be whenever #1,720.80 breaks and as U.S. session approaches since Investors will be looking to book their Profits on their Buy orders and Gold’s Bullish leg / recovery is near completion. If #1,708.80 breaks, Gold will continue Trading below #1,700.80 psychological barrier. I will continue Buying only if #1,744.80 Resistance breaks.


Technical analysis: The Hourly 1 Channel Up I talked about broke on the previous Hourly 4 candle downwards and, as mentioned is Targeting the #1,720.80 Support (Xau-Usd numbers on my commentary as always). As long as #1,720.80 holds as an Support, Gold will spike up before the next Bearish leg, but if #1,720.80 breaks, it should be an aggressive decline towards #1,700’s where the Price-action is expected to be in #4 session’s time. To be honest I am surprised that Gold was extending the consolidation, I expected that to take place after the revelation of the major move on most exchanges. But since the Bond notes are struggling to make a Bullish comeback, DX was taking strong hits, Selling bias is postponed. If this is the eventual rejection zone (#1,735.80 - #1,738.80), then I can have a Sell-off tomorrow back to #1,708.80 at least. The first level of Support though is, as mentioned above #1,720.80, where the Hourly 4 fractal also happens to be. Fundamentally, Gold continues to track the Bond notes movement ignoring the (minor but steady) decline on DX. Statistic is there to support my outlook - last Higher Low attempt and apparent rejection, Gold retraced more than #57 points afterwards, so same fractal could be the case shortly.


My position: I will remain on sidelines without a position until #1,720.80 (towards #1,700.80) or #1,744.80 (towards #1,764.80) breaks where I will be ready to engage my orders.