My approach to technical analysis:
I try to find price patterns that are repeated in different assets and using correlation studies to see if they could be good matches.
I believe tesla price patterns could be used as the best predictive indicator for bitcoin price patterns.
What happens inTesla could be followed by Bitcoin with 2 months delay.
Look at my analysis comparing Tesla and Bitcoin on April 9th, 2021.
4 days before the all-time high of Bitcoin I published an analysis with this title: (even recorded a YouTube video for this analysis)
Learn From Tesla Experience:
what do you think is more important?
moving average itself or moving average slope?
your answer to this question will save your capital in the market and will change the game forever..!
while moving average is a delayed indicator, I believe its slope is a predictive indicator!
Don't believe me, check how I predicted the market crash in EV makers before everyone else!
While everyone fools themselves about the EV makers' stock price and talking about 7000 USD tesla price and for NIO, I was the one who predicted the crash in EV makers as early as February 18th, when tesla was 800 and NIO was 56. I predicted 32 for NIO and it slipped to 31.91.
(please check the related links for evidence)
Please review my Bitcoin analysis as well:
1st: Sep 12, 2020: Bitcoin could technically soar to 100k ( Bitcoin price 10457)
2nd: Oct 21, 2020: Do not trade Bitcoin invest in Bitcoin for the next 2 years. ( Bitcoin price: 12441)
3rd: Nov 10, 2020: short term in contrast with long-term ( Bitcoin price: 15186
4th: Nov 11, 2020: fresh out of consolidation: Bitcoin price 15861
5th: Nov 25, 2020: Next 10-12 months of Bitcoin: Bitcoin price: 19090 (target 50k-72k in less than 1 year)
6th: Nov 26, 2020: Should we panic? Bitcoin price 16508
7th: Jan 10, 2021: It May sounds crazy, but this is an opportunity to buy Bitcoin: bitcoin price 35565
8th: Jan 27, 2021: the more it consolidated the further it goes. Bitcoin price 31262
In conclusion, I believe the 100K scenario is less likely to happen soon!
On the other analysis on January 9th, 2021 I compared these:
Bitcoin vs Tesla:
It is crystal clear that no asset class can beat Bitcoin’s gain of +500,000% in the last 10 years, but it is not the whole story. In the last 2 years, investors in Tesla have been rewarded 9 times!
We should keep in mind that in the last 6 months, Bitcoin performs 50% better and in the last 3 months performs twice better as Tesla. It seems in 2021 Bitcoin will perform better than Tesla.
Bitcoin mining demands energy while Tesla’s vision is to revolutionize the energy consumption in the world.
Tesla performs better than all the big names in the stock market in the last decade and also beats Bitcoin in the last 2 years.
With current momentum, it could pass Apple in terms of market cap in several months unless something extraordinary happens.
Last world: keep both in your portfolio..!
unless something extraordinary happens.
This is the key, why I changed my views on both of these assets!
They Both lost their momentum..!
Fixed or Dynamic Approach:
What Is a Posterior Probability?
A posterior probability, in Bayesian statistics, is the revised or updated probability of an event occurring after taking into consideration new information. The posterior probability is calculated by updating the prior probability using Bayes' theorem. In statistical terms, the posterior probability is the probability of event A occurring given that event B has occurred.
What Does a Posterior Probability Tell You?
Bayes' theorem can be used in many applications, such as medicine, finance, and economics. In finance, Bayes' theorem can be used to update a previous belief once new information is obtained. Prior probability represents what is originally believed before new evidence is introduced, and posterior probability takes this new information into account.
Posterior probability distributions should be a better reflection of the underlying truth of a data generating process than the prior probability since the posterior included more information. A posterior probability can subsequently become a prior for a new updated posterior probability as new information arises and is incorporated into the analysis.
Dec 2017- March 2018:
What happened in the next 9 months:
Trends are important, but their time frame is more important..!
A bullish rally is defined as reaching higher highs..!
Any bullish moves in bitcoin should be considered as a temporary correction unless bitcoin closes above 63760..!
can you benefit from a temporary move?
of course yes..! if you can detect them why not..!
Links:
https://youtu.be/0BJ3x4fJzxc
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/posterior-probability.asp
I try to find price patterns that are repeated in different assets and using correlation studies to see if they could be good matches.
I believe tesla price patterns could be used as the best predictive indicator for bitcoin price patterns.
What happens inTesla could be followed by Bitcoin with 2 months delay.
Look at my analysis comparing Tesla and Bitcoin on April 9th, 2021.
4 days before the all-time high of Bitcoin I published an analysis with this title: (even recorded a YouTube video for this analysis)
Learn From Tesla Experience:
what do you think is more important?
moving average itself or moving average slope?
your answer to this question will save your capital in the market and will change the game forever..!
while moving average is a delayed indicator, I believe its slope is a predictive indicator!
Don't believe me, check how I predicted the market crash in EV makers before everyone else!
While everyone fools themselves about the EV makers' stock price and talking about 7000 USD tesla price and for NIO, I was the one who predicted the crash in EV makers as early as February 18th, when tesla was 800 and NIO was 56. I predicted 32 for NIO and it slipped to 31.91.
(please check the related links for evidence)
Please review my Bitcoin analysis as well:
1st: Sep 12, 2020: Bitcoin could technically soar to 100k ( Bitcoin price 10457)
2nd: Oct 21, 2020: Do not trade Bitcoin invest in Bitcoin for the next 2 years. ( Bitcoin price: 12441)
3rd: Nov 10, 2020: short term in contrast with long-term ( Bitcoin price: 15186
4th: Nov 11, 2020: fresh out of consolidation: Bitcoin price 15861
5th: Nov 25, 2020: Next 10-12 months of Bitcoin: Bitcoin price: 19090 (target 50k-72k in less than 1 year)
6th: Nov 26, 2020: Should we panic? Bitcoin price 16508
7th: Jan 10, 2021: It May sounds crazy, but this is an opportunity to buy Bitcoin: bitcoin price 35565
8th: Jan 27, 2021: the more it consolidated the further it goes. Bitcoin price 31262
In conclusion, I believe the 100K scenario is less likely to happen soon!
On the other analysis on January 9th, 2021 I compared these:
Bitcoin vs Tesla:
It is crystal clear that no asset class can beat Bitcoin’s gain of +500,000% in the last 10 years, but it is not the whole story. In the last 2 years, investors in Tesla have been rewarded 9 times!
We should keep in mind that in the last 6 months, Bitcoin performs 50% better and in the last 3 months performs twice better as Tesla. It seems in 2021 Bitcoin will perform better than Tesla.
Bitcoin mining demands energy while Tesla’s vision is to revolutionize the energy consumption in the world.
Tesla performs better than all the big names in the stock market in the last decade and also beats Bitcoin in the last 2 years.
With current momentum, it could pass Apple in terms of market cap in several months unless something extraordinary happens.
Last world: keep both in your portfolio..!
unless something extraordinary happens.
This is the key, why I changed my views on both of these assets!
They Both lost their momentum..!
Fixed or Dynamic Approach:
What Is a Posterior Probability?
A posterior probability, in Bayesian statistics, is the revised or updated probability of an event occurring after taking into consideration new information. The posterior probability is calculated by updating the prior probability using Bayes' theorem. In statistical terms, the posterior probability is the probability of event A occurring given that event B has occurred.
What Does a Posterior Probability Tell You?
Bayes' theorem can be used in many applications, such as medicine, finance, and economics. In finance, Bayes' theorem can be used to update a previous belief once new information is obtained. Prior probability represents what is originally believed before new evidence is introduced, and posterior probability takes this new information into account.
Posterior probability distributions should be a better reflection of the underlying truth of a data generating process than the prior probability since the posterior included more information. A posterior probability can subsequently become a prior for a new updated posterior probability as new information arises and is incorporated into the analysis.
Dec 2017- March 2018:
What happened in the next 9 months:
Trends are important, but their time frame is more important..!
A bullish rally is defined as reaching higher highs..!
Any bullish moves in bitcoin should be considered as a temporary correction unless bitcoin closes above 63760..!
can you benefit from a temporary move?
of course yes..! if you can detect them why not..!
Links:
https://youtu.be/0BJ3x4fJzxc
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/posterior-probability.asp