Hello, I'm Vin, market analyst & trader from CryptoSociety. Hope you'll enjoy my analysis
After breaking out the down trendline (light blue), thanks to bullish impulse caused by ETF hype, we crashed after Twin's ETF denied and SEC delaying his decision. A very common pattern on hype/hope cycles
From waves structure point, we're in a very edgy situation since this movement from the 5800ish bottom can be both an ABC corrective of the main bear trend from 10k (in which case top was 8500 .618 fibo retracement from previous deadcat bounce top at 10k), or the wave 1 of a 5 impulse wave (wave 1st are common breakout waves, in this case moved by ETF bullish euphoria). Anyway we found support testing the broken down trendline. So structure is on an equilibrium situation.
What volumes analysis and momentum are telling us we're in trouble. Momentum had strong hidden bearish div. from previous dead cat bounce on Daily+ timeframes.
Short term indicators are weak bullish and sustaining this small rally we had today (most probably shorts taking profit), and it should go to 6800ish (retesting the broken support), especially on daily bull confirmation (on indicators) which for now, is still bearish.
We have broken key supports both on price (6800ish) and on indicators (bull/bear edge level), and this combo should lead to bear continuation as indicators are telling us this.
Zooming out a bit, Weekly doesn't look good for a continuation of this last impulse we had on the breakout.
Without strong bull catalyst, on next weeks we should expect a continuation of the downtrend from the last top 8500 till 4300ish zone (key VRVR zone and fibonacci retracement level of the bubble cycle from July 2017 ), especially if the CBOE ETF will be denied (or just delayed again, which I think will happen).
As short term,I'm weak bullish target to 6,8k for a test. This level can be a good entry point for a short with the right setup.
Mid term view, everything is pointing to continuation of the main bear market trend, with a retest of last bottom short term and if breakdown, start of thecapitulation phase with 1st target 4300ish.
After breaking out the down trendline (light blue), thanks to bullish impulse caused by ETF hype, we crashed after Twin's ETF denied and SEC delaying his decision. A very common pattern on hype/hope cycles
From waves structure point, we're in a very edgy situation since this movement from the 5800ish bottom can be both an ABC corrective of the main bear trend from 10k (in which case top was 8500 .618 fibo retracement from previous deadcat bounce top at 10k), or the wave 1 of a 5 impulse wave (wave 1st are common breakout waves, in this case moved by ETF bullish euphoria). Anyway we found support testing the broken down trendline. So structure is on an equilibrium situation.
What volumes analysis and momentum are telling us we're in trouble. Momentum had strong hidden bearish div. from previous dead cat bounce on Daily+ timeframes.
Short term indicators are weak bullish and sustaining this small rally we had today (most probably shorts taking profit), and it should go to 6800ish (retesting the broken support), especially on daily bull confirmation (on indicators) which for now, is still bearish.
We have broken key supports both on price (6800ish) and on indicators (bull/bear edge level), and this combo should lead to bear continuation as indicators are telling us this.
Zooming out a bit, Weekly doesn't look good for a continuation of this last impulse we had on the breakout.
Without strong bull catalyst, on next weeks we should expect a continuation of the downtrend from the last top 8500 till 4300ish zone (key VRVR zone and fibonacci retracement level of the bubble cycle from July 2017 ), especially if the CBOE ETF will be denied (or just delayed again, which I think will happen).
As short term,I'm weak bullish target to 6,8k for a test. This level can be a good entry point for a short with the right setup.
Mid term view, everything is pointing to continuation of the main bear market trend, with a retest of last bottom short term and if breakdown, start of thecapitulation phase with 1st target 4300ish.
Comment:
short term update
as expected, on daily bullish crosses on indicators, we found local bottom where we had some decent bullish divergence on momentum short term.
Overall I think the original analysis is very strong for now, expecting still uptrading movement (leg C) from this wickoff short term zone we've built. We should go for the test of 0 equilibrium level on daily and 3day of indicators that should act as resistance on 6,8-7,2k price range.
Market sentiment was very bad last week which is a bullish sign as well.
short term update
as expected, on daily bullish crosses on indicators, we found local bottom where we had some decent bullish divergence on momentum short term.
Overall I think the original analysis is very strong for now, expecting still uptrading movement (leg C) from this wickoff short term zone we've built. We should go for the test of 0 equilibrium level on daily and 3day of indicators that should act as resistance on 6,8-7,2k price range.
Market sentiment was very bad last week which is a bullish sign as well.
Daily chart only