The period of violent volatility is long gone and it is being replaced by the slow descent into the oblivion as BTC marches toward the potential new low in 2019 6 months away from its 2019 high.
BTC price is below all EMA 50, 100, 200 and all Ichi indicators except the lagging line, indicating a rather bearish sentiment
BTC is ready to retest the daily trendline it broke in the late October and the price action confirms the bearish sentiment as the lower high and lower low price movement continues.
My belief in the current low volatility and choppy environment is that we should focus on daily/weekly charts and build up swing/positional trades.
In addition to the technical analysis, current market condition warrants further look into the fundamental & sentiment analysis.
According to the vcdepth.io, the BTC market's volume and books are down in almost all major regions; however, BTC derivatives' volume and books is up, inferring that traders are accounting for possibly most of the price movement at this point.
The 6 months continuous decline of GBTC premium further corroborates such hypothesis.
Moreover, CME open interest has been on a steady decline since BTC hits 2019 high in June.
COT report indicates that lev money (institutional) long has been on a sharp decline since BTC reached 2019 high in June and even NonRept (retail) long dipped below 70% this week.
On the retail side, according to data.bitcoinity.org, the number of trades per minute across all exchanges has been on a six month free fall since June and this indicates a rather lackluster retail interest.
Even BTC twitter per minute hits the all time low today (Glitch!?) and Google search for BTC continue to remain flat since early 2018.
All of these signs indicate the lukewarm demand from both retail and institutional sides, the two essential groups needed to kickstart the next rally.
How long will this BART pattern (period of low volatility follows by the sharp and short burst of volatility and price movement) continue?
Do we need another group of long-term holders to capitulate before the trend can return or will the halving in May 2020 save the day?
Only time will tell.
Remember, we are not in the business of fortunate-telling; rather, we are in the business of anticipating possible scenarios then react accordingly. Any wild and long-term price predication is.... well, just one of the thousand of wild and long-term price predictions out there so look at them with a healthy dose of scientific skepticism :)
BTC price is below all EMA 50, 100, 200 and all Ichi indicators except the lagging line, indicating a rather bearish sentiment
BTC is ready to retest the daily trendline it broke in the late October and the price action confirms the bearish sentiment as the lower high and lower low price movement continues.
My belief in the current low volatility and choppy environment is that we should focus on daily/weekly charts and build up swing/positional trades.
In addition to the technical analysis, current market condition warrants further look into the fundamental & sentiment analysis.
According to the vcdepth.io, the BTC market's volume and books are down in almost all major regions; however, BTC derivatives' volume and books is up, inferring that traders are accounting for possibly most of the price movement at this point.
The 6 months continuous decline of GBTC premium further corroborates such hypothesis.
Moreover, CME open interest has been on a steady decline since BTC hits 2019 high in June.
COT report indicates that lev money (institutional) long has been on a sharp decline since BTC reached 2019 high in June and even NonRept (retail) long dipped below 70% this week.
On the retail side, according to data.bitcoinity.org, the number of trades per minute across all exchanges has been on a six month free fall since June and this indicates a rather lackluster retail interest.
Even BTC twitter per minute hits the all time low today (Glitch!?) and Google search for BTC continue to remain flat since early 2018.
All of these signs indicate the lukewarm demand from both retail and institutional sides, the two essential groups needed to kickstart the next rally.
How long will this BART pattern (period of low volatility follows by the sharp and short burst of volatility and price movement) continue?
Do we need another group of long-term holders to capitulate before the trend can return or will the halving in May 2020 save the day?
Only time will tell.
Remember, we are not in the business of fortunate-telling; rather, we are in the business of anticipating possible scenarios then react accordingly. Any wild and long-term price predication is.... well, just one of the thousand of wild and long-term price predictions out there so look at them with a healthy dose of scientific skepticism :)