Sawcruhteez

Bitcoin Daily Update (day 300)

Long
BITMEX:XBTUSD.P   Bitcoin
Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

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300th day of the Daily Update. This started as something I thought I would try for a month. After 30 days I figured, "why not do it for a year" not really thinking that I would keep it up that long. I soon found out that I got more out of this process that any of the viewers and I am very excited about the progress I have made over the last 300 days. If you have struggled with trading / TA and want inspiration then look back to the first few days / weeks of this blog and see for yourself how far you can come in less than 1 year through focus, consistent effort, resilience and diligence.

Consensio: S MA > P > M MA > bullish L MA = 95% long entry signaled

Patterns: Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Bitmex makes it look more like an ascending triangle
Horizontals: R: $4,029 | S: $4,000
Trendline: Triangle
Parabolic SAR: $4,127
Futures Curve: Backwardation, but spread has been narrowing.
BTCUSDSHORTS: Continues to fall toward support while price goes nowhere. Shorts are covering but resistance is holding = bearish.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
TD’ Sequential: Bearish price flip following A13.
Ichimoku Cloud: We have closed inside the cloud. Edge to edge trade carries 2:1 r:r.
Relative Strength Index: Supporting > 50 = Bullish
Average Directional Index: ADX turning up, +DI & -DI diverging in bullish manner.
Price Action: 24h: -0.0% | 14d: +5.6% | 30d: +16.3%
Bollinger Bands: Supporting > MA during squeeze = bullish
Stochastic Oscillator: Sell signal happening right now

Summary: A big move is coming and if you can be patient then I think there is a lot of money to be made. Big moves tend to follow Bollinger Band squeezes. The Bollinger Band width is less than 15 and it does not like to stay there for long.

The best way I know how to beat the markets is to get entered before a large trend occurs. The best way that I know how to identify an upcoming trend is tight consolidation and an understanding of traps.

If a market consolidates tight enough then it will get to a point where it can’t go sideways anywhere. Therefore it must go up or down. I try to detach myself my any personal thoughts / beliefs of direction and then I wait for a breakout.

An alert set on a price or a boundary line will let me know when it is time to watch like a hawk. Does the key area of support / resistance break on high volume? Does price close near the days high or is there overwhelming pushback that leads to a reversal candle?

Here is a great article about identifying false breakdowns by Trader @Excavo


Through being able to take either side of the trade and understanding the most common types of traps there is a lot of money to be made after a market experiencing a period of tight consolidation.

The trick is being able to remain patient and then not being afraid to execute when the time is right.

XRP:USD looks primed for one of these moves in the near future, as does ETH, LTC and BTC.

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