Bitcoin - On the Edge of Calamity

RiversAndMountains
SHORT
Bitcoin - The Edge of Calamity
Bitcoin/USD Perpetual Swap (BITMEX:XBTUSD) 4323.80 12.40 0.29%
RiversAndMountains
PRO
28 minutes ago
DeleteEdit
Bitcoin/USD Perpetual Swap, 60, BITMEX, Heikin AshiO4322.11H4327.10L4307.80C4319.17
Vol (20) 4M13M
Ichimoku (20, 60, 120, 30) 4261.75004256.15004319.17504277.25004299.4000
MACD (12, 26, close, 9) -1.283624.241425.5250
Aroon (14) 35.71430.0000
MFI (14) 61.5385
Trend AnalysisChart PatternsBitcoin (Cryptocurrency) 7 0
28 minutes ago
This is my first TV chart. Please forgive my lines and colours being unpolished and not nice. If there's something wrong with any of my reasoning, I'm all ears. Bluntly speaking, I don't know shit and I'm quite at peace with that.

Edit: As I was struggling with posting private to proofread and then figuring out how to post public we got our first green rocket candle up. Dump first, or just no dump? We'll see.

Relative to the local -0.31% time-frame Bitcoin has broken the downtrend line from $4,400 and held multiple candles above the Kumo and the trendline . However, price action moves sideways. I have noticed many indicators are giving odd/false signals because of this ( Aroon ) and others showing some weird divergences because buy or sell volume is actually high, or MACD signaling reversal. However, many indicators right now are not reflecting what actual price action would be if the volume we had was given the privilege of having _any_ volatility to work with at all. Price action is unable to reflect the volatility we would have if we had normal liquidity for the reason below:

Referencing the circled price action, if you have been staring at order books and charts 15 hours a day like I have, you'll have noticed that after price moves, the pattern immediately becomes a very tight and stagnant bull/bear flag. Price oscillates within a relative channel and it looks like nothing is happening and the market is dead. Yet price doesn't go up. Price doesn't go down.

Why?

Bitfinex's orderbook is iceberg-walled on both the Bid and Ask by a very tight spread and of a very large size (Same with BCH 0.56% and NEO -0.27% , among others). This results in there being effectively enormous liquidity and zero volatility . One can take positions within a range, but the Orcas are currently deciding both when Bitcoin moves, and obviously if you can control when it moves, you can also control what direction it moves.

That being said, a lot of the people who came into crypto on the way to $2, 800 0.00% and then $4,900 have subsequently left crypto. There's a lot less natural buying power on the market, and so expectations that we are going to see price growth like we did in July and August are fundamentally unfounded and wishful thinking until the next wave of PR 0.00% from the macro-players brings new blood in.

The whales are strictly controlling the price action at different levels and are accumulating hedged short/long positions at multiple levels with multiple stop hunts and margin calls against commoners along the way.

I expect BTC to revisit the cloud and prior supports at 4230. I expect this to happen more than another leg up because now that 1H, 2H, and 4H candles have held above the breakout point, more and more people are going to long the fish hook/flag to ride the wave, and so smarter money is going to take their badly positioned longs and their weak hands and get paid for it themselves.

If price action revisits 4146 on current time trajectory, Bitcoin will not bounce and will pierce final relative support at 4080. Under current sentiment, the majority of retail traders and users will be wiped out amidst panic and capitulation as they struggle to maintain what little fiat they have remaining to survive.

I believe it would make no sense for whales to accumulate iceberg long positions at this

Order cancelled:

Had built a short during the early bump up around 4340 as per plan. Velocity of price movement and volume confirms breakout is likely legit and not easily knocked down.

Price action was also not easily knocked down. Price is currently stalling at 4398 as the double-iceberg has been placed.

Comment:

Had longs bought during the breakout at around 4380. The 4390 area was both a major resistance point and a major inflection point. Once the 4400 walls were broken velocity above 4400 was very weak and slow and I thought the risk of a long squeeze was considerably too high and closed for a small scalp.

Price indeed met with pullback above 4400 and was dumped, although "dumped" in this case is a $50 swing.

Price is currently seized by whale double-icebergs at 4380.

The market waits to be allowed volatility.

Comment:

The stop hunting appears to have happened merely at 4400 instead. Evidently it's not looking like shorting in the 4350-4370 range was good for more than a scalp, but we'll see if price action confirms reversal or not.