Xbt fail to reach solid ground.... what to expect now?

I'm using xbtusd since that's what i trade, a few days ago it failed to break the resistance at 5378 (today at 5338), i think it should retest it a couple more times before either breaking that resistance (and aim to the 7300's zone) or bouncing down hard to visit some supports (3330, 3121, 2391, 1676) but in the meanwhile, i think we are starting a downtrend and will see some downward movement (my monkey on the beach indicator 1h just sent a short signal - the previous signal was a long on March 27) i think we will find a bounce zone between 4569 and 4728 before trying to retest the 5300's resistance, if that bounce zone fails, we might be lucky if it stops at the 4200's because we might be visiting the lower supports I mentioned earlier
number wont be exactly the same in a couple days, the problem with moving averges is that they keep moving :D
happy trading everyone!!