Bitcoin Daily Update (day 271)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.


Previous analysis: "Now I am expecting / watching for a throwback to retest the bear trendline for support. There will be significant support from $3,600 - $3,750"
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short LTCBTC from 0.00752 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434

Patterns: Watching for double bottom / higher low
Horizontal support and resistance: Finding support at $3,866...will it create a higher low on the 4h? | R: $4,020
BTCUSDSHORTS: Forming a hanging man at resistance
Funding Rates: Longs received 0.1742%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Looks like it will close below
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Looks like it will close below
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): At $5,424
Overall trend: Bearish
Volume: Today’s selling volume did not completely overwhelm the prior three days buying volume
FIB’s: (Using top of Nov 12th and bottom of Nov 25th) 0.786 = $4,056 | 0.618 = $4,558 | 0.5 = $4,909
Candlestick analysis: Confirmed doji by trading below the low of yesterdays candle
Ichimoku Cloud: Has re entered 1h cloud and found support at the bottom. 4h cloud held as resistance
TD’ Sequential: 4h r6 indicates 12 hours left to the downside. Daily g3 < g2.
Visible Range: Testing high volume node from $4,000 - $4,600 and finding resistance
Price action: 24h: -6.12%
Bollinger Bands: MA is at $4,825. Top band is exactly in line with 200 day MA at $6,601
Trendline: Watching for throwback to test prior resistance for support
Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend)
Parabolic SAR: At $3,447
RSI: Daily is testing 30 for support
Stochastic: Diverging in bullish manner, showing plenty of room to the upside
Last Day Rule: Breaking down $3,439 would be setup day for longs

Summary: The price has found support at the 33 MA (4h) over the past 12 hours. Now the question is: “will we create a higher low and then go on to make a higher high?”

I don’t think that is going to happen quite yet, for a few reasons. First is the 9 MA turning down on the 4h chart. It should act as strong resistance and appears to be posturing for a death cross.

The other reasons why I do not expect a higher low / higher high from here is due to the 1h chart.


The 200 MA is in a strong bear trend. The 33 MA rolled down and is posturing for a death cross with the 200. The price is below both of those MA’s and appears to be pulling up and into a death cross.

Therefore I am still expecting a retest of $3,750 support before getting a bounce. The TD’ Sequential is on a red 6 (4h chart) and that indicates another 12 hours to the downside. Hopefully tomorrow morning we will get a perfected red 9 at the confluence of support from: horizontals, broken trendline and TDST level.

As the price of BTC’ dips it could be providing a good opportunity to short alts. Most are bouncing towards resistance looking like a cat on it’s tenth life.