BTC projection

We're currently seeing a bit of a rally following the wick down to 5860 yesterday, however I feel this will be short lived seeing as the EMA20 has now crossed below the MA50 on the 1D. Historically BTCUSD has risen up for a touch of the 1D EMA20 following the EMA20 & MA50 crossover before a sharp move down, which I expect to occur within the next few days. 1D EMA20 is currently sitting at 6766 at the time of writing, which I expect to come down to around 6600 - 6650 by the time BTCUSD moves up to meet it. It is at this point I will likely enter a short position in anticipation of a move down to around 4700 by the end of August / beginning of September.

Comment:

Short entry - 6577
S/L - 6665

Comment:

I realise I could have entered higher, however I chose to sit it out during the BitMEX shenanigans on 22/08. That PA was absurd.

Comment:

I should have been stopped out of this trade at 6665, however I made this mistake of using the stop limit function on Bitmex and fell victim to horrendous slippage (note to self - use stop market!). Thankfully I entered a hedge long on XBTU18 at 6520 which has rescued my PNL a little. Both positions still open at present.

Mid term trend 0.382 fib currently acting as resistance, as is the 4H EMA200 (see chart).

I'll be monitoring the chart closely today. If I see a drop followed by a convincing bounce from 6600 - 6650 then I will close my short and add to my long.

If I see a convincing break above the 0.382 fib then I will close my short and let my hedge long ride, hopefully to breakeven at 6890.