Hi Guys,
I would like to share with you my view of BTC direction and target for the coming month or so. I will try not to repeat what others are doing rather giving you some selected and sometimes different view of the market condition.
# Weekly
The longer term view is bearish with most of the indicators are pointing down. My interest in this chart are:
1- Possible harmonic swing (in light blue line) which have a target around 4690 which coincide with
2- ABC extension target 1 of 4691 as we already reached the minimum target at 6707
#3-Day
There is a potential that the market is forming a bullish butterfly pattern which is having the reversal zone around 4300.
#Daily
Picture starts to get interesting (and confusing) from daily to lower time frames.
First to note is that there is an met objective for a smaller ABC pattern which stands at 6248. This is somewhat below the previous low. Also the market has broken the lower trend line of the triangle (which most of the traders are looking at). I don’t normally trade these breakout but its good to monitor for confirmation.
Now the obvious conclusion would be that the market will drop first to clear the stops below 6400 which will accelerate and might reach the ABC target at 6248 very quickly and subsequently 5855 (the low for this year); which in my view will qualify for a panic.
Although this scenario is likely to happen, I will give my contrary view. I except the market to bounce off this level. There are couple of warning signs in lower time frames:
1- In the 6-hour time frame, you can notice that the number of longs are decreasing in the latest drop which number of shorts are increasing. If Bitfinix data is correct, then crowd are betting for a further drop and they have mainly increasing their positions at the recent consolidation after yesterday’s drop. I am suggesting a scenario where market makers will squeeze these shorts before further drop. It will also tempt the long to qualify the bounce as a reversal which might lead to a final bull trap before reaching my weekly target in the 4K area.
My ideal bounce scenario will be in form of a cypher pattern at 8120 or a shark pattern at 8530 . Of course these are just predication and too early to say but it will be ideal for a bull trap
2- In lower time frames there are couple of TD reversal setups:
TD-Setup: 5-hour (not perfect) (also in the 4-hour) TD 9-13-9: 3-hour TD sequential: 1-hour
#Summary
I think that the market structure is really weak and still believe that we will go beyond 5K in the coming weeks. However, I don’t recommend to enter short as yet (if long take some profits and tighten your stops). I will wait for a retracement and sell accordingly.
I will try to keep this thread alive for a while to update when and if a new setup occurs.
Good luck guys!
I would like to share with you my view of BTC direction and target for the coming month or so. I will try not to repeat what others are doing rather giving you some selected and sometimes different view of the market condition.
# Weekly
The longer term view is bearish with most of the indicators are pointing down. My interest in this chart are:
1- Possible harmonic swing (in light blue line) which have a target around 4690 which coincide with
2- ABC extension target 1 of 4691 as we already reached the minimum target at 6707
#3-Day
There is a potential that the market is forming a bullish butterfly pattern which is having the reversal zone around 4300.
#Daily
Picture starts to get interesting (and confusing) from daily to lower time frames.
First to note is that there is an met objective for a smaller ABC pattern which stands at 6248. This is somewhat below the previous low. Also the market has broken the lower trend line of the triangle (which most of the traders are looking at). I don’t normally trade these breakout but its good to monitor for confirmation.
Now the obvious conclusion would be that the market will drop first to clear the stops below 6400 which will accelerate and might reach the ABC target at 6248 very quickly and subsequently 5855 (the low for this year); which in my view will qualify for a panic.
Although this scenario is likely to happen, I will give my contrary view. I except the market to bounce off this level. There are couple of warning signs in lower time frames:
1- In the 6-hour time frame, you can notice that the number of longs are decreasing in the latest drop which number of shorts are increasing. If Bitfinix data is correct, then crowd are betting for a further drop and they have mainly increasing their positions at the recent consolidation after yesterday’s drop. I am suggesting a scenario where market makers will squeeze these shorts before further drop. It will also tempt the long to qualify the bounce as a reversal which might lead to a final bull trap before reaching my weekly target in the 4K area.
My ideal bounce scenario will be in form of a cypher pattern at 8120 or a shark pattern at 8530 . Of course these are just predication and too early to say but it will be ideal for a bull trap
2- In lower time frames there are couple of TD reversal setups:
TD-Setup: 5-hour (not perfect) (also in the 4-hour) TD 9-13-9: 3-hour TD sequential: 1-hour
#Summary
I think that the market structure is really weak and still believe that we will go beyond 5K in the coming weeks. However, I don’t recommend to enter short as yet (if long take some profits and tighten your stops). I will wait for a retracement and sell accordingly.
I will try to keep this thread alive for a while to update when and if a new setup occurs.
Good luck guys!
Trade active:
Going long now at 6520 with a stop at 6320.
I took the trade for achieving a small ABC target on the 1 hour chart and long vs short ratio - catching a falling knife! If it bounces, I except high R:R ratio... First target should be around 7K.
Will update as we progress.
I took the trade for achieving a small ABC target on the 1 hour chart and long vs short ratio - catching a falling knife! If it bounces, I except high R:R ratio... First target should be around 7K.
Will update as we progress.
Comment:
Trade closed: stop reached
Comment:
As expected, the market has shown a bounce but after it washed the stops below the latest low.
In the daily analysis above I wrote: "Now the obvious conclusion would be that the market will drop first to clear the stops below 6400 which will accelerate and might reach the ABC target at 6248 very quickly and subsequently 5855 (the low for this year); which in my view will qualify for a panic." So first two targets are met and bounced before hitting this years low.
I still believe that we are going to go below 5K. Currently, bounces should be treated as shorting opportunity and the first area which will be of interest is 6750 area.
As shown in the image below, 6750 is an ABC 100% target of bounce from 6095. It is also .382 retracment and possibly a gartley reversal zone.
For scalp longs, you can wait for a retracement in the area between 6450-6480 (confluence area) targeting 6750 and a stop loss below 6330
In the daily analysis above I wrote: "Now the obvious conclusion would be that the market will drop first to clear the stops below 6400 which will accelerate and might reach the ABC target at 6248 very quickly and subsequently 5855 (the low for this year); which in my view will qualify for a panic." So first two targets are met and bounced before hitting this years low.
I still believe that we are going to go below 5K. Currently, bounces should be treated as shorting opportunity and the first area which will be of interest is 6750 area.
As shown in the image below, 6750 is an ABC 100% target of bounce from 6095. It is also .382 retracment and possibly a gartley reversal zone.
For scalp longs, you can wait for a retracement in the area between 6450-6480 (confluence area) targeting 6750 and a stop loss below 6330
Trade active:
Scalp long is active at around 6450.
Comment:
I am moving my stops to breakeven as market didn't show me the bounce that I expected. It still can move to the target short area, but when the price behavior does not match my hypothesis, I prefer to exist the trade and wait for another setup.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Breakeven exist
Twitter: twitter.com/ZsilenceCrypto