www.youtube.com/watch?v=siCnBQb7...
Well, it went further from my expectations and faster than I thought. This is some good news for bulls. They seem to have dominant control over bears for now and I believe this may keep on for a while. I was concerned about the low volume but today's volume will possibly be a big one. It's already reached yesterday's volume only in half day. I was expecting a resting state around 11500 area before it is exceeded however the price just broke above that level without even having a second thought. Not only that but more importantly, price exceeded my golden resistance line that was the 2nd to last line before all resistance lines are broken. Now bears only have the red line to hold on to. Blue line, that is the top of descending trade channel, is also there to be broken but it is indicating similar ranges with the red line, 12,000-12150. Golden line provided a clear support and now we are heading towards 12,000. Since the increase was beyond my expectations, I hesitated to enter a new long position above the golden line, around 11575. Reason for the hesitation was the probability that this break-out might be a fake one. In this case, we might have seen a $500 drop to 11,100 area that is the grey line. So the risk/reward ratio of this trade wouldn't be much satisfactory.
I will remain neutral until the price breaks above 12,000 to see how strong the bulls are. I think regardless of the bull power, 12,000 hit will lead to a considerable retracement. If I see such a weakness, I may go for a short position but only for 1-2 hours. During the times when BTC have big increasing movements, retracement to these movements are mostly sharp sell-offs that does not take more than couple of hours to recover. Then the price keeps on making higher highs.
Any short position right now is too risky and entry/stop-loss points have to be determined carefully. In these kind of trades, which are against the current trend but may bring high profit in short time, I turn into 1 minute chart and seek for some weakening of the movement to jump in. The range to look for is between 12050 and 12150, more specifically 12125. As I said, depending on the state of the volume and the amplitude of the bar that will take us to 12,000 area is quite important for me to decide if I take a short.
I will post updates about my current positions.
Have a nice Monday!
Comment:
In addition to all these, if we see a retracement to grey line on the chart, just above 11,100, I will probably jump into a long position.