BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract

As we near the end of a 50 day consolidation, all signs are pointing to a breakout. The current price is $7,930 and most are expecting a move to 8.2k+.

We have already bullishly crossed over on the 3D MACD , and the RSI has plenty of room for a move upwards. I expect our breakout here to be violent, and very quick. It is possible that we squeeze up to 8.8k/9.1k for another big short opportunity before going lower, so do not rush into thinking BTC has bottomed prematurely.

Until we break 9.5k or flip 7.8k to support, BTC is still in a bearish downtrend. However, I do see this move being able to at least hit $8,200 which is where I would personally take at least some profits depending on how much strength is shown.

If you recall, I posted in November that this could be The Big Short opportunity for Bitcoin into the 5k region. I stand by that call until market structure is broken above $9,000 and we see a large increase in volume .

For now, BTC is bullish and I am expecting continuation. As long as we can stay above 7.5k, longing any pullbacks is the best strategy.
Comment: Here we are 22 days later, and BTC has reached the red target zone at $9,400. I'm expecting the next 48 hours to be a major turning point for BTC. Either we break macro market structure and reach $9,500+, or we simply perform a bearish retest of the EQ from $3,000-$13,800. If we reject there, then as stated, BTC is still technically bearish.

For me to turn bullish after a rejection, I would have to see a S/R flip above $7,500 and continuation upwards from there exceeding $8,200. Once those condition are met, I will definitively believe we are in a bull market. Alternatively, we could just blast through $9,500 for me to reach the same conclusion. Either way, exciting times. Buckle up!


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