BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract

With all the recent blood in the street and current ups and down between 5900 and 6600, this brings to ask (and hopefully answer) the question, "When Moon, Sir?"

Honestly, I believe we are closer to seeing a larger rally sometime in the fall/winter --following another smaller rally I expect to play out near-term. However, in order for this to happen, we will need a larger catalyst to move the market and get people excited to invest again. Let's face it, many people (and newer investors) have been hurt attempting to trade this market. They bought when prices were near all-time highs (ATHs) and sold the dip. This has left many people jaded and more cautious than ever.

That said, I do believe we may see some relief again soon from all the selling that has been taking place. As it currently stands, shorts/bears are once again approaching ATHs. The last time this happened, we saw a rather large movement to the upside. Keep in mind, lately, bears have been getting very cocky -- leading many inexperienced bears to their demise. Although I am no stranger to shorting this market, I do not believe the risk-to-reward currently favors the bears.

What people forget is the hardest decision in trading is often times the right decision. In other words, when everyone else is shorting, it may be time to look the other way.

So, I remain steadfast in my belief that we will see some form of relief soon before we continue further downward.

Two things to watch out for:

1) A break above 6650, which would resume the uptrend.
2) A break below 6850, which may signify further downward movement.

Judging by what I'm seeing from Heiken Ashi on the daily, I am sooner leaning toward greater movement to the upside, which may incite another short squeeze to 6.8-7k.

However, if this scenario does not play out, a larger move capitulating to the downside is probable.

Stay tuned.
Trade closed: target reached: I closed my trade from 5920-6800 flat. Although I expected some overshoot from the short squeeze and realized the potential for a rally to 7150ish on BITMEX, I decided to play it safe (just in case).

That said, the 4HR RSI is now heading into overbought territory. The Daily RSI, however, does show more room for more upside, and the 4HR MFI also supports continuation of the rally.

With more ETF news on the horizon (August 23rd), I am more comfortable taking a 'wait and see' approach. If the news is positive, you can expect some strong movement to the upside. On the other hand, if the news is not favorable, there may be a bit of a 'long-press' to accompany the recent short-squeeze.

I would not rush into any positions until then.

When all else fails, simplify. -Me

DISCLAIMER: My analysis and opinions are mostly based on the current trends and chart analysis. That said, you are inevitably responsible for your own decisions. Trade at YOUR own risk. Cheers!


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