BTC - Impulsive or Corrective?
Here I'm tracking BTC on small time frames watching for a temporary bottom. We are looking to determine whether we are looking at a wave 1 of an impulse kicking off an upward trend or simply an ABC corrective formation.
The white count shows the potential 5 count up (white count) that would makeup our wave 1, or a corrective ABC (red count). Key things to watch here is the retracement, to possibly invalidate the impulse or further movement up to invalidate the correction.
Wave 1s usually retrace at least 50% of the prior move, otherwise 61.8% or 76.4% most commonly. They are 100% invalidated if they move below the start of wave 1.
Wave C's of zigzags usually extend 0.618, 1 or 1.618 x wave A. However they can extend in multiples of 1 or 1.618, i.e. 2 or 2.618 etc. Here we stopped just under the 3.618, beyond which I would lose confidence and personally invalidate the corrective move.
I'll try to get a more robust analysis posted, just been swamped IRL lately.
*THIS IS NOT TRADING ADVICE*
The white count shows the potential 5 count up (white count) that would makeup our wave 1, or a corrective ABC (red count). Key things to watch here is the retracement, to possibly invalidate the impulse or further movement up to invalidate the correction.
Wave 1s usually retrace at least 50% of the prior move, otherwise 61.8% or 76.4% most commonly. They are 100% invalidated if they move below the start of wave 1.
Wave C's of zigzags usually extend 0.618, 1 or 1.618 x wave A. However they can extend in multiples of 1 or 1.618, i.e. 2 or 2.618 etc. Here we stopped just under the 3.618, beyond which I would lose confidence and personally invalidate the corrective move.
I'll try to get a more robust analysis posted, just been swamped IRL lately.
*THIS IS NOT TRADING ADVICE*
Comment:
Someone asked about time frames we could expect. Unfortunately elliott wave theory does not give time estimates, but that's nothing a little critical thinking and geometry can't solve.
To hit my target AND still obey this channel, it'd be a near vertical move in the next three days basically. However my target may be wrong, this channel may be invalidated or both. If the former, I would guess we move sideways in a triangle for the next 3 weeks or so until the final capitulating drop. See chart below:
To hit my target AND still obey this channel, it'd be a near vertical move in the next three days basically. However my target may be wrong, this channel may be invalidated or both. If the former, I would guess we move sideways in a triangle for the next 3 weeks or so until the final capitulating drop. See chart below:
Comment:
Also, that line in the chart above is just saying that an impulse wave OR this count would be invalidated. If we move above $8400, this could still morph into a diagonal which is no more bullish and less concrete.
Comment:
We hit the 50% retrace and the 3.618 extension...both are still valid..
Comment:
3.618 put up some resistance, but it's looking impulsive for now
Comment:
Corrective. Target is $5500-$4700, new idea to follow.
Then one more potential low around $5000-$4700. More on that to follow.