Sub $6.4k is probably not an option and $3k is off the table.
I have two clouds up, the standard red and green is the non-crypto settings and the orange and yellow cloud are the crypto settings. I also have the VPVR up with my own personal settings of 147 rows and the 68% for the value range because that gets me a bar chart up the side of 100 bars in the value area and 47 outside of it. The blue lines are the developing value area and the black lines are the developing point of control. To simply things I turned off the T and K for the standard cloud. There is no doubt that this is a busy chart but there are some key things to focus on.
The parabolic move at the blue arrow ended up wicked to the three-day crypto cloud. I am really starting to see the benefit of the 3d setting for seeing larger moves. The price action has a tendency when attempting a break through the cloud to go “edge to edge” before hopping on top of the cloud.
The breakthrough at the blue arrow also had the crypto cloud declining after setting a platform at about 420 (of course) and having the crypto cloud thin a bit. At our currant instance the crypto cloud doesn’t have the same platform but it is stepping down and getting narrower. It is beginning to look like we will hop on top of the crypto cloud and again then ride both clouds to our peak. If we use the crypto cloud TK cross to lose our trade from the peak of the parabolic move at the blue arrow we open at 360 and close at 12,500-ish, a x34 trade. There are a lot of T-K crosses along the way but this one is important.
For years after the blue arrow the upper Value Area was above both clouds rather consistently. In fact one of the things that makes an uptrend in crypto so attractive is the ability to use the upper Value Area as support. For the next year or so as we test and confirm support on the clouds and upper value area but starting in mid-2017 we see the Value area starts to lag and eventually go into the through the clouds and then under the cloud. The TK cross after that was death.
I am still developing this concept/signal but it seems pretty solid, unless you happen to find yourself in some sort of bullish continuation pattern and then you can play that continuation pattern and short the next T-K cross. Below is ETHUSD and the triangle had a T-K cross when the Upper Value Area was in the cloud but the triangle pattern could have been played. Even if you were out that the T-K cross in the triangle you would have been long above the cloud and value area at about $13 and out at $282, a gain of x21 in less than a year. Obviously another x4 or so would be nice but lets not get too greedy here.
The point of control no longer moves as much as it did from 2014-2016. So when it called the change in floor to 3750 that floor is basically in. There are still people calling for no only sub 6k but sub 3k. The chances of that happening have to be less than .01% at this point.
Just as the Value Area narrowed at the blue arrow the Value Area narrowed when we established our floor in December 2019
Price Action is above the $$6,200-6,400 HVN. BTCUSD can retrace 10% and we would still be at the HVN finding support. That level also has us finding support on the crypto cloud. Could we wick below? Yes, but I seeing us close a daily or weekly candle past it.
There is a fair chance this impulse has the price action get to the Upper Value area at about 11k. If you are worried about the price dropping on you because you FOMO’d in a VPVR trading system confirmation would be the POC jumping to the price action/upper value area and some more HVNs developing between here and $11k.
Conclusion
I have looked at the long term moving averages, the OBV EMAs, the BARR nested within a falling wedge, both settings for the Ichi Cloud, the VPVR, and a short squeeze. I have covered this to death, and people are still in denial. I know this is crypto and I know 20-50% retracements happen all the time but right now the HVN and and moving averages at and above $6,200-$6,400 are probably holding as support. The bottom is clearly in at the 200w MA, falling wedge support. See all the linked charts, I had to come out of disbelief as well.
Side Note
One reason I like the double cloud is because it is like you can see two different set of traders working complementary systems as the price action thrusts through one cloud only to get rejected at the other. You can see a lot going on, especially when you look at different time frames.
Also all of the VPVR stuff I just went over is bedeviled if you are looking at unreliable volume or an exchange that only recently picked up a lot of volume, or had people leave for another exchange. I still find kraken to be the most reputable exchange when it comes to volume and liquidity, so I use them for all my volume stuff.
The parabolic move at the blue arrow ended up wicked to the three-day crypto cloud. I am really starting to see the benefit of the 3d setting for seeing larger moves. The price action has a tendency when attempting a break through the cloud to go “edge to edge” before hopping on top of the cloud.
The breakthrough at the blue arrow also had the crypto cloud declining after setting a platform at about 420 (of course) and having the crypto cloud thin a bit. At our currant instance the crypto cloud doesn’t have the same platform but it is stepping down and getting narrower. It is beginning to look like we will hop on top of the crypto cloud and again then ride both clouds to our peak. If we use the crypto cloud TK cross to lose our trade from the peak of the parabolic move at the blue arrow we open at 360 and close at 12,500-ish, a x34 trade. There are a lot of T-K crosses along the way but this one is important.
For years after the blue arrow the upper Value Area was above both clouds rather consistently. In fact one of the things that makes an uptrend in crypto so attractive is the ability to use the upper Value Area as support. For the next year or so as we test and confirm support on the clouds and upper value area but starting in mid-2017 we see the Value area starts to lag and eventually go into the through the clouds and then under the cloud. The TK cross after that was death.
I am still developing this concept/signal but it seems pretty solid, unless you happen to find yourself in some sort of bullish continuation pattern and then you can play that continuation pattern and short the next T-K cross. Below is ETHUSD and the triangle had a T-K cross when the Upper Value Area was in the cloud but the triangle pattern could have been played. Even if you were out that the T-K cross in the triangle you would have been long above the cloud and value area at about $13 and out at $282, a gain of x21 in less than a year. Obviously another x4 or so would be nice but lets not get too greedy here.
Just as the Value Area narrowed at the blue arrow the Value Area narrowed when we established our floor in December 2019
Price Action is above the $$6,200-6,400 HVN. BTCUSD can retrace 10% and we would still be at the HVN finding support. That level also has us finding support on the crypto cloud. Could we wick below? Yes, but I seeing us close a daily or weekly candle past it.
There is a fair chance this impulse has the price action get to the Upper Value area at about 11k. If you are worried about the price dropping on you because you FOMO’d in a VPVR trading system confirmation would be the POC jumping to the price action/upper value area and some more HVNs developing between here and $11k.
Conclusion
I have looked at the long term moving averages, the OBV EMAs, the BARR nested within a falling wedge, both settings for the Ichi Cloud, the VPVR, and a short squeeze. I have covered this to death, and people are still in denial. I know this is crypto and I know 20-50% retracements happen all the time but right now the HVN and and moving averages at and above $6,200-$6,400 are probably holding as support. The bottom is clearly in at the 200w MA, falling wedge support. See all the linked charts, I had to come out of disbelief as well.
Side Note
One reason I like the double cloud is because it is like you can see two different set of traders working complementary systems as the price action thrusts through one cloud only to get rejected at the other. You can see a lot going on, especially when you look at different time frames.
And I promise every Floridian that you will all be rich... because we're gonna print some more money! Why didn't anybody ever think of this before?
~Nathan Explosion
~Nathan Explosion
