vjsharma89
Short

BTC - Back to 3200 or form new high above 4000?

BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
Previous/active trades?
We saw a nice move up today, finally breaking the 3540 resistance after 24 hours of struggle. In the process we did downward fake out invalidating the bull flag and ultimately hitting my SHORT SL.
Found myself an entry at 3615 after a breakout from the downtrend resistance market in red towards 3800.
Currently sitting under another major horizontal resistance 3876.
Peaked to 3777.

What's happening?
I can see two trade opportunities here.
1. Reversal from 3800-3900 resistance. Considering the buy momentum at the moment, I think we'll easily get there and won't reverse until we touch the resistance properly.
Marked with high opacity Blue Arrow
2. Break 3800-3900 resistance and form a new lower high between 4000 and 4400. Probably double top and reverse. We have a decent buy volume on the daily timeframe and if doesn't die soon, that should help BTC get to 4000-4300.
Marked with low opacity Blue Arrows

Market Structure
Remember this bear market is here to stay for another 8-9 months at least
And things can't just stay pumping left right and center in a bear market
Major resistances here onward are 3800-3900 -> 4100-4300 -> 4800-5200
And breaking 38-3900, will confirm that 3200 is the new temporary bottom.
Now, breaking 4300 will form a higher high and should take us to next resistance level of 4800-5200.
This will form a new market structure of 3200 and 5200, until we break it in either direction.
Breaking 5200 would end this market structure and bring us back to 6k. I don't see it happening anytime soon. We are too far from doing this.
Breaking 3200 would prolong this bear market further to new lows between 1800-2900.

Fibs Theory
According to trend based fib extension from previous low (3431) to previous high (4422) and current bottom (3121), 61.8% fib is at 3734 (where we are sitting right now followed by 78.6% fib at 3899.
78.6% fib of trend happens to be 23.6% retracement of this drop from 6422 to 3121. This makes me believe that we'll see a correction of this uptrend from 3900.

If we don't follow this, the next point of reversal from this uptrend would be 38.2% fib line (4383). I personally don't see it breaking 43-4400 and retrace 50% without making a correction of the current uptrend.


My sentiment
Short Term - Bullish
Mid Term - Bearish
Long Term - Bearish

What are my indicators saying?
Daily HTL is at 3740

That's where we are sitting at the moment.
4Hrly FOMO has been green since 3165. Might call for a retracement, if we don't reach 3800 soon.

How am I trading this?
I'm currently in a LONG with a Stop Loss in profits at 3700. I'll let this trade run for a while. TP some more between 3800-3900. But I won't close it in case we break 3900.
Based on my Fib theory and 3800-3900 being a strong resistance, I believe we'll see a retracement soon.
Trade 1 -> I'm setting up SHORT orders in a different Bitmex account as follows
Initial Entry -> 3810
Stagger 1 -> 3860
Stagger 2 -> 3899
SL -> 3910
Trade 2 -> In case we break 3900 and my SHORT SL hits, I'm setting up
market buy stop at 3920.

Trade 3 -> In case we don't reach the resistance level (doubt it), I'll look for SHORT entry once we break 3500.
Comment: Strong Bearish divergence building on 1hr
Comment: Should be 57% at 10x leverage.
Comment: Daily Close doesn't look too good for Bulls.
My personal Discord ID : VJ - BITMEX #3208
DM to get access to FOMO Indicator
Bitmex Affiliate Sign up : https://www.bitmex.com/register/xEne51
Called it long when everyone was calling short here!!... Premium made 325% Profits!!!

Reply
Damn... Super Impressed by the Chart... Very neat and Clean... Perfectly Explained...
+1 Reply
vjsharma89 Sarang_SJ
@Sarang_SJ, Thank you.
I've part 2 of the previous update up in a new idea. :)
Reply
Love it as always brother.
+1 Reply
vjsharma89 jolllysworld
@jolllysworld, Thank you.
I've part 2 of the previous update up in a new idea. :)
Reply
Great analysis! Thx a lot!
+1 Reply
@DaSmooth, Thanks mate. Appreciate it.
Reply
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