BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis / position: “$6,800 is where I am hoping to build shorts, but that price may not come after the high volume pullback we got a few hours ago. If $6,575 breaks down or we get a good reversal candle then I will start re opening my positions.” / Whipsawed for another small loss after price broke down $6,575. Back on the sidelines
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,600 | S: $6,525
BTCUSDSHORTS: Still trying to make higher low at 26,917.
Funding Rates: longs pay shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): Both are trying to act as support. Bullish crossover would be significant.
50 & 128 MA’s: Price back below 50 MA (barely) | 128: -3.71%
Volume: Volume still drying up as price continues to consolidate in a tighter range.
FIB’s: 0.382: $6,933 | 0.5: $6,776 | 0.618: $6,619
Candlestick analysis: Re exploring wick from yesterdays candle.
Ichimoku Cloud: Daily cloud moved completely. No longer waiting as resistance at $6,800
TD’ Sequential: Weekly is price flipping. Daily G3. 12h R2 = R1.
Visible Range: In highest liquidity zone over the past year above point of control.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: - | 24h: -0.98% | 1w: -2.29% | 2w: +2.32% | 1m: -19.91%
Bollinger Bands: Top band: $6,784 | MA: $6,504 | Tightest squeeze over last year
Trendline: Top of descending triangle = $6,900
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Up: $6,827 | Down: $6,299
On Balance Volume: Bull div’ in weekly.
ADX: ADX is at support, indicating upcoming volatility
Chaikin Money Flow: Significant bull div’ on the daily. Weekly starting to turn up.
RSI (30 setting): W: 45.75 | D: 49.27
Stoch: Making bullish re cross on weekly. Bearish re cross on 3d and 1d.

Summary: This market has been more choppy over the last few days than I can remember it being over the last year. As soon as support breaks down the price will quickly reverse to the upside. I usually prefer to trade breakouts and that has made these last couple days especially frustrating.

Nevertheless I continue to focus on risk vs reward. The market is going to make a very big move in October, there is simply no way around it. In order to capitalize on that move I am willing to take a few small losses here and there. Taking a loss and then giving up is where many traders go wrong. Taking a few small losses in order to get positioned for a big move is how many successful traders make a living.
I like to take a small break after the market whips me around in order to clear my head and regain some confidence. I decided to go golfing today, eat chicken wings, drink some beer and watch football.

In markets like this it is often best to wait for the real trend to start. Trying to position yourself before the real move happens can often cost more than it is worth. Why not wait for the real breakout/down to happen, wait some more to make sure that it is not a fakeout and then enter on the throwback?

I am inclined to think that will be the best approach, by far, in the next week or two. If we rally to $6,800 - $6,900 then I don’t think I will be able to resist the r:r on a short and will probably take another stab. If not then I will likely continue to sit on my hands.
Whats actually the reason for using the MA128 specifically?
@moviestar, Backtesting has shown it to be the most reliable long term MA.
moviestar Sawcruhteez
@Sawcruhteez, I use MA130. its almost the same, but 130 is even more accurate as support line at 16th july, 15th sept 2017, 17th jan 2018. most tip of the wicks fit even better on that line (BLX index).
btw. look where MA130 and MA340 crossed at the end of 2015 ;)
if you connect the top lines of the triangle that either jan 20th or march 5th connects with jul 24/25th then top of the triangle is currently around 7250.
+1 Reply
@moviestar, This is how I am drawing the top end of the descending triangle. I have it right around $6,900 although it could be drawn differently.

moviestar Sawcruhteez
@Sawcruhteez, if you connect wick to wick (you also used the wick in may) then its a little less steep. the double top of july 24/25th is the result of getting rejected at MA340
Many thanks mate I made mistake after watching Eth drop for entry to 212, then failing to place order, was in taxi when pumped and made classic emotional mistake and chased pump at 237 hoping still had legs to 250 based on TA from TV authors. Panic sold at 229. Your words are therapy after this experience and Ill take advice and wait for market to lead.
+1 Reply
Sawcruhteez GlennTarplett
@GlennTarplett, Thanks for sharing your experience and for the kind words! We have all FOMO'd into a position and we have all panic sold at a loss. That is the first step to becoming a successful trader! As long as you can learn from your experience and properly manage risk then there is nothing stopping you from eventually learning how to beat the markets. Good luck and don't hesitate to comment or DM with any questions!
GlennTarplett Sawcruhteez
@Sawcruhteez, Many thanks mate...
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