BTCUSD
on the weekly chart is trading into a very crucial support. If this weekly chart wave count is accurate, we are testing the lows of a primary trend wave 2 (orange; II) from 2017. If bitcoin can continue to close weekly candles above 5850, it suggests we are currently at the lows of a primary trend wave 4 (orange; IV), as well as the bottom of a secondary trend correction phase (red; c). Interestingly, we can see that wave II began at the same dark blue 1.618 fib circle we are about to challenge in the next week to 3 weeks (depending on price movement). If this analysis is correct, we should expect some degree of upward movement before the end of July. i have used the bar projection too to print what is likely the "best case scenario" for bitcoin bulls. This will begin the primary trend wave 5 (orange; V). Wave 5's can be extremely strong, initially due to the effect of the short-squeeze produced when short sellers are forced to buy-to-cover their margin position as they recognize that the a-b-c correction phase has likely ended. Many of these traders will also go long during wave V, so it's a reasonable expectation that the reversal could be relatively volatile. The first indication that this is correct will be a strong, impulsive move higher upon closing a weekly candle above the 50-period simple moving average, which is currently around 8200 and rising. I expect to see this occur in August at the earliest, perhaps coinciding with the expected approval of a CBOE crypto currency ETF product, making bitcoin accessible to stock traders, banking institutions, corporate 401Ks, and individual investors without a crypto currency exchange account. The squeeze from breaking over the weekly 50-ma could push BTC as high as the low to mid 12k region. I would expect a significant pullback when this price zone acts as solid resistance, as it was the original support for the late 2017 dump, and is likely full of sellers waiting to unload their bags of bitcoin. The sell zone begins near the 2018 highs and continues up to around 15k.
Following this initial squeeze to 12k, I anticipate BTC makes a relatively swift drop back below 10k. I could see it getting stuck trading sideways between 9k and 10k for much of 2018, but bulls best case scenario is some sort of a reversal pattern like a double bottom, perhaps around the weekly 50ma. Since this scenario would produce a higher low, we should expect the next move higher to be a swift, powerful secondary-trend wave 3 (green), where those who hesitated to buy the earlier squeeze will FOMO the price all the way to 15k. This could occur as early as mid November or later in 2019.
We should expect another significant pullback when 16.5k cannot be overcome, perhaps returning all the way to the weekly 50ma again, or producing a prolonged triangle pattern of volatile trading between 10k-15k. There is always a risk that wave 4's bring about a trend change if support is broken, so just as it's important to be cautious if staying long in the current crypto market environment, this projected pullback should be monitored, as a lower-low or a break below the weekly 50ma could signal that the next stop would be below 5850 (likely in the 3k-4.8k region). Otherwise, if support holds, a bullish wave 5 should bring BTC back up towards 20k. This could begin as early as December 2018 if the corrective wave 4 is violent and steep like the current wave 4 has been as projected with the bar tool above, or as late as summer, 2019, if wave 4 is a slow, prolonged distribution phase. If BTC has not broken back above 14k by February, 2019, I would expect a return to sideways-to-bearish conditions until at least April/May. My long-term fib projections for 2019 is a high around 25-30k. The primary wave 5 will be strong, but the parabolic nature of wave 5's typically only occur at the end-st