My2CentsOnBTC

BTC, ETH: Trading a falling channel (updated).

Short
KRAKEN:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / U. S. Dollar
BTC and ETH trading bearish at the lower edge of a falling mid-term channel (which I have called in my ideas since Sep-03), after decisive bearish moves on reasonable volume . We are continuing Since Sep-22 for at least yet another swing up/down.

Trading setup*:
- in a falling mid term channel since Sep-07 from 52.9k
- two decisive moves to the downside confirmed the channel on Sep-07 (52.9k -> 42.2k) and on Sep-21 (48.8k -> 39.7k) and defined size and angle of the channel
- variant A has been invalidated on Sep-22
- trading long in B up to 45k from Sep-21 (has been successful) in the first step
- in B, the higher value has been confirmed, hence trading from B down to 36.3k by shorting
- planning to get there around Oct-04
--> all in all, this includes a long with ~8% profit and a short with ~20% profit. I will do this on 5x margin, and for fun I'll trade it in ETHUSD (for it has more volatility ), even though this plan is about BTCUSD .
- up to now price decline rejected at a major rising long term trend line 2 times (but on low + declining volume ) --> watch this closely in the daily chart , breakout above local bearish pennant on reasonable volume could still invalidate trading setup

Intermediate review
- entry missed, hence lost some additional %% in the beginning
- TP1 at B (45k) anticipated perfectly in time and price using my new technique (described in my idea "TA: Trying to find the perfect entry point for a short.") --> exited first long on a good profit
- strong movements between Sep-24 and Sep-26 not anticipated, hence lost some trading opportunities - but "stick to your plan" as a matter of risk management
- On Sep-2029 in a short from 45k, which is at 6% profit now (inbetween has been 10%), multiplied by 5 through leverage
- trading setup essentially on plan up to now, going further


*) I have been documenting my trades in this channel since Sep-21 in my idea "BTC, ETH: Trading a falling channel". On Sep-22 I had to update the channel setup. My setup and decisions have become less visible in the old idea because the chart in it still pictures the old variant. That's why I moved it to this update here.


_____
Of course, this is not a trading advice, just my private analysis as well as a text for entertainment purposes.

Never put your heart and your money in the same place.
You could end up with your balance getting f***** while you're doing the hard work.