My2CentsOnBTC

BTC, ETH: Trading a falling channel.

Short
KRAKEN:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / U. S. Dollar
BTC and ETH trade at the lower edge of a falling mid-term channel (which I have called in my ideas since Sep-03), after decisive bearish moves on reasonable volume . I think we will continue for at least yet another swing up/down.

I will trade this (on ETH for higher volatility ) between the two fib lines of the last large uptrend, where I will look for exit / entry points. For BTCUSD it's the .236 , lining up with the .786 (B: .382 - .5) short term fib retrace level of todays down swing. For ETHUSD its the .382 fib level of the last longer uptrend.

Tomorrow I will see if we're at variant A or B, depending on the power of the anticipated retrace / correction.

Not the perfect entry now, but I need to go to bed ;-)


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Of course, this is not a trading advice, just my private analysis as well as a text for entertainment purposes.

Never put your heart and your money in the same place.
You could end up with your balance getting f***** while you're doing the hard work.
Trade active: TA update: Ouch, looks like we got in here a little bit early. I had been wrong at setting the channel a bit shallow. REMEMBER: Align falling channels to the lower highs, not the lower lows.
Now we printed a new local low at 39.700 (which is still not 38k). A week ago every bull would have called you insane for this from deepest belief. New main fib retrace levels for the local decline from 48.8k to 39.7k are 41.8k @ .236, 43.5k @ .382, 44.2k @ .5, 45.3k @ .618 and 46.8k @ .786
TP A ain't on the road anymore. TP B still has a good chance to finalize the first step in the green. This would mean we have to reach 45.3k, or at least 44.2k at the respective retracement levels during the next days. Retracements of that size were typical recently and within the last years, so at least the .5 retracement should be a realistic goal.
If we reach at least the .5 fib, so the TP for step 2 would extend to 36.5 - not a bad development.
Trade active: Wow, this was a fast comeback. Nice! From as low as 39.7k back to 44.2k within this short time. We're back within variant B of my trading plan and already reached the lower TP at 44.2k.
I sold my long on 10% in the green this morning at a price (2% gain, 5x leverage). I could have stayed in while upside looks good atm, but I'd like to wait the reactions on yesterdays Fed p.c.
Powell likes to stay at his loose monetary policy, but he also indicated that he's going to fasten it erlier as planned before - which is less good for crypto. Market participants in the crypto space could adjust their growth expectations, which would put pressure on prices. Therefore, I prefer to be cautious.
Next step: Watch price action to find good entry point for short.
Trade active: Still in the plan. Meanwhile trading was very dynamic. I entered my short perfectly in time (covered in my idea "TA: Trying to find the perfect entry point for a short."). Didn't find the perfect exit though - the .236 at 41.8k led me wrong. Now waiting for the next time to enter a short position again for the last step of my TP.
Being careful by now. Though on low volume and while still within all channels, BTC broke one minor trendline and shows some minor bullish directions currently, too. Let's see. The next moves will bring a decision. Until this, I'll stay short term bearish.
Comment: P.S.: We could still take a price increase up to 45.3 (.618 level) within the next 2 days without violationg any of the basic assumptions of the trading plan.
Trade active: Price is creeping down on the lower side of the falling channel. We had to make an update to this channel because of price further falling on Sep-22. The trading strategy and its assumptions are still valid, but it becomes less visible each day. Hence, I will present my trading in this strategy with a new idea continuing with the same setup except the adapted falling channel as proposed on Sep-22.