Thank you to those who continue to take the time to read my analysis and support me here on TV. Let’s get right to it.
Here on the daily chart we can clearly see Bitcoin has found resistance at the top of the downtrend channel that has been confining the price since late June. I called the bottom in my last idea at 9,600 and predicted that this would be an area we would see some resistance if the price got this far.
Well here we are and now the market seems to be split 50/50 in which direction we will continue.
On smaller time frames you can see price has formed a symmetrical triangle which is a neutral pattern that can result in a break out either direction.
This symmetrical triangle is also being formed by the top of the descending channel (in blue) and the black rising trend line on these higher time frames. The indicators do look bearish on the 4hr, however this is normal during consolidation periods.
But we can clearly see RSI and Sentiment Index pointing downwards.
The MACD histogram is still well below the zero line, as well as a bearish crossover present.
One thing I’ll be looking closely at is that trend line I drew on the RSI, if we see RSI break and close above that trend line, the bulls will be in favor.
When we look at the weekly chart, it looks very bullish at the moment but there is still 3 and half days left of this week before the weekly candle closes. This is why I put the weekly S/R line (in red) on the chart. This is in my opinion the most important SR level to be focused on this week, because a weekly close above that line would favor the bulls and a weekly close below would be in favor of the bears:
So the question now of course is if we can find any signs that will help us predict the move Bitcoin will make.
Unfortunately, there are a lot of mixed signals right now so it’s hard to make a call and feel confident about it, however I do believe the bears are slightly in favor right now for the following reasons:
- Price is hitting heavy resistance at the top of the descending channel
- The 0.5 fib level is also keeping price at bay
- The indicators on daily chart are showing reversal signs, and quite a bit of room to the downside:
o RSI Exhaustion setting in
o Sentiment Index showing a double top
o MACD histogram turning bearish
o Stochastic is overbought
- Sentiment Analysis shows there is still greed in the market, despite moving sideways at a point of high resistance.
- When we look at volume on smaller time frames, it helps us identify what’s really happening throughout consolidation phases. There seems to be a lot more selling activity than buying, signaling possible distribution:
In conclusion, price is currently consolidating and taking no trade is probably the best thing you can do. The bearish signs are all there, but this is crypto and at any moment a breakup of the price will erase any of the bearish signs I pointed out on the indicators, etc. Most important thing is to look at the weekly chart and wait to see how this weekly candle closes at that S/R level. You can also get an idea of price breakout before we see a breakout, by watching that RSI trend line on the 4hr and if it gets broken and RSI closes above, then the bulls will be in favor and we could see price break up.
If you found this idea useful, please give me a thumbs up! Thank you!
Here on the daily chart we can clearly see Bitcoin has found resistance at the top of the downtrend channel that has been confining the price since late June. I called the bottom in my last idea at 9,600 and predicted that this would be an area we would see some resistance if the price got this far.
Well here we are and now the market seems to be split 50/50 in which direction we will continue.
On smaller time frames you can see price has formed a symmetrical triangle which is a neutral pattern that can result in a break out either direction.
But we can clearly see RSI and Sentiment Index pointing downwards.
The MACD histogram is still well below the zero line, as well as a bearish crossover present.
One thing I’ll be looking closely at is that trend line I drew on the RSI, if we see RSI break and close above that trend line, the bulls will be in favor.
When we look at the weekly chart, it looks very bullish at the moment but there is still 3 and half days left of this week before the weekly candle closes. This is why I put the weekly S/R line (in red) on the chart. This is in my opinion the most important SR level to be focused on this week, because a weekly close above that line would favor the bulls and a weekly close below would be in favor of the bears:
So the question now of course is if we can find any signs that will help us predict the move Bitcoin will make.
Unfortunately, there are a lot of mixed signals right now so it’s hard to make a call and feel confident about it, however I do believe the bears are slightly in favor right now for the following reasons:
- Price is hitting heavy resistance at the top of the descending channel
- The 0.5 fib level is also keeping price at bay
- The indicators on daily chart are showing reversal signs, and quite a bit of room to the downside:
o RSI Exhaustion setting in
o Sentiment Index showing a double top
o MACD histogram turning bearish
o Stochastic is overbought
- Sentiment Analysis shows there is still greed in the market, despite moving sideways at a point of high resistance.
- When we look at volume on smaller time frames, it helps us identify what’s really happening throughout consolidation phases. There seems to be a lot more selling activity than buying, signaling possible distribution:
In conclusion, price is currently consolidating and taking no trade is probably the best thing you can do. The bearish signs are all there, but this is crypto and at any moment a breakup of the price will erase any of the bearish signs I pointed out on the indicators, etc. Most important thing is to look at the weekly chart and wait to see how this weekly candle closes at that S/R level. You can also get an idea of price breakout before we see a breakout, by watching that RSI trend line on the 4hr and if it gets broken and RSI closes above, then the bulls will be in favor and we could see price break up.
If you found this idea useful, please give me a thumbs up! Thank you!
Comment:
Seeing the top ideas on Tradingview are bearish. Shorts continue on climb on Bitfinex. The herd is usually wrong and this is something we have to be aware of. While this of course can change as we are in this consolidation phase and people's bias can rapidly shift from bearish to bullish, it's still something to just continue to monitor as price ranges. This is another reason why I mentioned it's best to just stay out of the market until the picture becomes clearer despite all the bearish signs I posted above. Please be careful, and more importantly, be patient!!
Comment:
Not much has changed, still ranging inside this triangle. One thing to note on the RSI, is we see the trend line was broken and also got a re-test of the trend line. Now it appears it wants to bounce off that trend line. Obviously no guarantees that will happen, but if it does manage to stay above that trend line, we could finally see a breakout above the big blue descending channel.
Comment:
So that triangle obviously broke down. What I'm seeing now is the bulls desparately attempting to keep price up before the weekly closes. Price is now below that weekly S/R line so the bulls will need to make some moves before tomorrow night or we can expect a lot more downside to come in the coming days/weeks.
For the bulls, they were able to hold price up right at the 0.382 fib retracement, which is also in line with the previous swing high (11,130). We can see a new descending channel formed now, so this seems to be an area the bulls will do their best to hold up.
Volume was quite high on that drop though, so I am not confident in the bulls being able to save this however we will have to keep an eye on this closely.
If the bulls are somehow able to keep it above that support, then this descending channel can take form of a bigger bull flag, and this drop was simply a bear trap. So still, no clear answer yet and no trades should be taken until this weekly closes and we can get a better idea of the market's intentions.
For the bulls, they were able to hold price up right at the 0.382 fib retracement, which is also in line with the previous swing high (11,130). We can see a new descending channel formed now, so this seems to be an area the bulls will do their best to hold up.
Volume was quite high on that drop though, so I am not confident in the bulls being able to save this however we will have to keep an eye on this closely.
If the bulls are somehow able to keep it above that support, then this descending channel can take form of a bigger bull flag, and this drop was simply a bear trap. So still, no clear answer yet and no trades should be taken until this weekly closes and we can get a better idea of the market's intentions.
Comment:
Looks like bulls were able to hold price up again off that 0.382, yellow support and bottom of descending channel. But now getting stuck right below the weekly support/resistance level. The bulls will need to break this level before 8pm tonight to stay in favor of this bull run.
The indicators below are showing slight bullish divergence on 4hr time frame, on the RSI, MACD, and Sentiment Index. There was even some bearish exhaustion on RSI. The volume was also decent on the previous 4hr candle, but none of this will matter if bulls cannot break this important SR level. Let's keep a close eye on this today!
The indicators below are showing slight bullish divergence on 4hr time frame, on the RSI, MACD, and Sentiment Index. There was even some bearish exhaustion on RSI. The volume was also decent on the previous 4hr candle, but none of this will matter if bulls cannot break this important SR level. Let's keep a close eye on this today!
Comment:
The bulls were able to close the weekly candle body just above that weekly SR level. Now a new weekly candle has opened and bears have pushed it back below that level. When we look at the 4hr time frame again, we can see how the bulls are already trying to make a move up before finding support around the 0.382 again.
There are some strong divergences on the MACD, Sentiment Index and RSI now. If those hold, then it's looking like the bulls will be able to make a decent move up today.
There are some strong divergences on the MACD, Sentiment Index and RSI now. If those hold, then it's looking like the bulls will be able to make a decent move up today.
Comment:
New idea:
This is a riskier trade given the location, but I can't ignore the signs of this either. Let's see if the bulls are strong enough to make it happen!
This is a riskier trade given the location, but I can't ignore the signs of this either. Let's see if the bulls are strong enough to make it happen!
Comment:
Scratch that last idea, bulls are just too weak and that descending channel has proved to be stronger than I initially thought. Price is now well below that weekly SR level. This is very bad for the medium to long term for bulls, as this was a very important level to keep up for 2019 bull run to continue.
I also noticed this fractal back from mid-May. I doubt it plays out the same way, but still interesting to follow it: