lysergik

Fib MA says daily market is ready for a short-term bullish swing

Long
BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
Using the bollinger band (15,3) and the WMA (15) that is part of my Fib MA script, on the daily chart you can see quite well the crossing point of those often represents a trend reversal in a small swing-level move; more of a slightly lagging indicator however, but in some cases along with using volume /momentum it can call it early enough to catch more than just a couple percent ROI .

Anyhow, for a better idea of the bigger trend, zoom out the chart a bit and observe what happens when the white bollinger band basis MA (15 candle) and the pale yellow WMA (15 candle) both pass above the teal SMA (24 candle or ~23.6% fib level of 200 candle SMA ). You can see that it always means a big trend reversal is incoming or is already happening. These are the big swings to look out for which are intensified, naturally, when they coincide with the even bigger trend; the market trend.

The market has just started to make that exact move but there is a pretty significant resistance zone from around $4250 to $4675 on this chart. Breaking that area we could see a test of the $5250 to $5450 zone on this chart. Though with enough volume and market emotion, we could also go very quickly through these resistances; but if the market is more unsure, apathetic, and / or is experiencing more analysis paralysis on average, then we could see more consolidation type movement around those resistances.

Overall, in the short-term, I'm quite bullish , though I do expect us to come back under $4k sometime in 2019 for some time before beginning the next true bull market.

As I only have a free trading view account, all the trend lines I use for trading on every time frame are present on this chart. Here is a more unobstructed view of those indicators:


and the bigger trend where you can see previous swings in relation to my aforementioned strategy..

Comment: **CORRECTION: the teal 23.6% fib is of course 48 candles, not 24.**

Note that you can also help yourself find a confident exit time from the end of a bull market using that 23.6 % fib MA; if price drops below that MA followed immediately by the 15 candle bollinger basis and the 15 candle WMA then you can should be closing your bitcoin positions.

Waiting for reentry for the next cycle, you will want to wait for a golden cross. but you sold even before the 48/200 candle death cross (white cross).

Some bear markets are weaker and include only the death cross before quickly spiking back up; though this is not common for bitcoin. But if you see a golden ratio death cross on the daily (100 candle EMA crossing 200 candle SMA) after a regular death cross, then you know you will have to wait much longer before getting to near the bottom of the market.
Comment: You'll also notice the FIB MA lines tend to act as quite important levels of support and resistance, notably on the daily chart. This is my script with explanations for most of the code:

//@version=1
study(title="Fib Cross", overlay=true)

// The 200 candle MA is used as the 100% level, and the other 3 MAs are the golden ratio 61.8%, 50%, and the 23.6% level as well.
// You will find that during massive bull runs, on the daily chart, the golden ratio orange MA and the 200 day MA are very important levels to pay attention to relative to last close price.
// This along with trend angle and bollinger bands can really help identify a good exit at the end of a bull run, whilst helping you avoid getting out too early
fib1000 = sma(close, 200)
fib618 = sma(close, 124)
fib500 = ema(close, 100)
fib236 = sma(close, 47)

// This is used to show smaller cycles in relation to the basis of the 15 candle bollinger band. For crypto, I also recommend using a standard deviation of 3 for bollinger bands
bollCompliment = wma(close, 15)

ma1400 = sma(close,1400) // on the daily chart, this represents the 200 week MA
ma350 = sma(close,331) // on the daily chart, this represents the 47 week MA (23.6% fib relative to 200 week)

cma350 = color(blue,42)
cma1400 = color(white, 42)
c1000 = color(white,0)
c618 = color(orange, 0)
c500 = color(yellow, 0)
c236 = color(teal, 0)
cwma = color(#F4E38C, 0)
fibCross = color(#E5BD06,0)
mainCross = color(white,0)

plot(fib1000, color = c1000, linewidth = 2)
plot(fib618, color = c618, linewidth = 2)
plot(fib500, color = c500, linewidth = 1)
plot(fib236, color = c236, linewidth = 2)

plot(bollCompliment, color = cwma, linewidth = 1)
plot(ma1400, color = cma1400, linewidth = 2)
plot(ma350, color = cma350, linewidth = 1)

plot(cross(fib236, fib1000) ? fib236 : na, style = cross, linewidth = 4, color = mainCross)
plot(cross(fib618, fib1000) ? fib618 : na, style = cross, linewidth = 4, color = fibCross)
Comment:
Trade closed: target reached: The market has hit resistance and is preparing for a pullback before beginning the bull run.

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