vjsharma89
Short

BTC - Back to 3200 or form new high above 4000? Part 2

BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
Previous/active trades?
After a powerful rejection from 3900, BTC consolidated at 3700 level for a level where I took profits on my SHORT from 3900. Was a nice 6% drop .
We bounced from fibs I shared in an update on my previous idea. Then out of no-where we saw a high volume pump to 4116. I got stopped in Profit on that pump. Must admit I didn't see that pump coming.

What's happening?
BTC has double topped at 4170 on hourly timeframe.

This could be the lower high (under 4420) mention in my previous trading idea.
But BTC might make another move and if this move falls short again, we'll have to call 4170 the new top until we retrace to one of the following levels -
3860-3730
3550-3450
3370
In worst case, the retracement could end at 3370 support. If 3370 breaks, bears will be out looking for a lower low (2900-3000).
Another interesting thing to note is LONG wicks in both directions signaling indecision.
Usually at times like these, we see BTC's infamous BART moves.
LONGing here wouldn't be the best course of action in my opinion since a double top and possible new lower high has been formed. Long wicks to the top is depicting high sell pressure.

Fibs Theory
According to trend based fib extension from previous low (3431) to previous high (4422) and current bottom (3121), 100% fib is at 4108. BTC has wicked that level.
If 4170 is the lower high we were anticipating, trend based fibs for upcoming downtrend tells us that the 61.8% retracement would be around 3370.
Ideal movement here on would be to retrace 61.8% and seek higher high after depicted with high opacity blue arrows.
But 3730 is not a strong support which leads to 3550 being the next possible reversal level.


My sentiment

Short Term - Bearish
Mid Term - Bearish
Long Term - Bearish

What are my indicators saying?
Daily HTL is still at 3740.

4hrly HTL is at 3670
Hourly HTL is at 3872. It has provided support to this uptrend since the beginning. Would be interesting if we break it at 3870 and continue towards 3730.

FOMO 4hrly is green. Had turned temporarily turned red after a reversal from 3900 the other day.
FOMO 1hrly is red.
FOMO Momentum Scalper on 4hrly is showing bearish divergence but it's not very significant (shown with red lines)


How am I trading this?
I'm in no trade right now.
Opening a small SHORT position right now at low leverage and keeping more entries at 4150, 4280, 4420.
I'll be taking profit around 3870, 3730, 3670, 3550, 3470, 3370

Comment: Landed right on 1hr HTL and bounced.
1st TP filled.
Comment: Might some down action here
Comment: Back up.
Didn't break
Comment: This is 1hrly wedge
Previous was 5m/15 hence short lived.
This should lead to a positive break out (UP).
Comment: There we go.
Comment: 60% trade at 10x leverage.
Comment: Long shot but you never know.
I'm prepared for it, if we do BART here.
My personal Discord ID : VJ - BITMEX #3208
DM to get access to FOMO Indicator
Bitmex Affiliate Sign up : https://www.bitmex.com/register/xEne51
Great...
+1 Reply
vjsharma89 Sarang_SJ
@Sarang_SJ, Thanks :)
Reply
great analysis, VJ!
+1 Reply
@Said_16, Thanks mate. Appreciate it.
Reply
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